310  
FXUS01 KWBC 290812  
PMDSPD  
 
SHORT RANGE FORECAST DISCUSSION  
NWS WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD  
412 AM EDT WED AUG 29 2018  
 
VALID 12Z WED AUG 29 2018 - 12Z FRI AUG 31 2018  
 
...A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS NEAR THE CANADIAN  
BORDER IN THE NORTHEAST TODAY...  
 
...FLOODING CONCERNS CONTINUE ACROSS THE UPPER AND MID MISSISSIPPI  
VALLEY AND INTO THE UPPER GREAT LAKES REGION TODAY...  
 
...TEMPERATURES WILL BE 10 TO 15 DEGREES ABOVE AVERAGE OVER PARTS  
OF THE MIDDLE ATLANTIC AND NORTHEAST...  
 
...FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS BEGIN TO RESURFACE ACROSS THE WESTERN  
U.S....  
 
A COLD FRONT IS CURRENTLY STRETCHING FROM EASTERN CANADA,  
SOUTHWEST ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES, MIDDLE MISSISSIPPI VALLEY, AND  
INTO THE SOUTHERN PLAINS, DIVIDING A STRONG RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE  
ACROSS THE SOUTHEASTERN THIRD OF THE U.S., AND A MUCH COOLER  
AIRMASS MOVING SOUTHWARD FROM CANADA IN THE NORTHERN U.S.. A DEEP  
SURGE OF WARM, MOIST AIR IS BEING ADVECTED IN FROM THE GULF OF  
MEXICO, WHICH IS CLASHING WITH THE COLDER AIRMASS TO THE NORTH,  
RESULTING IN SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ALONG  
THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY. THESE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE BEING  
EXACERBATED BY A STRONG AREA OF LOW PRESSURE EMBEDDED WITHIN THE  
BOUNDARY WHICH IS CURRENTLY LOCATED OVER THE GREAT LAKES REGION  
AND EXPECTED TO MOVE TOWARDS THE NORTHEAST THROUGHOUT THE DAY.  
BOTH THE STORM PREDICTION CENTER AND THE WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER  
HAVE OUTLINED A NARROW REGION ALONG THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY,  
STRETCHING FROM THE SOUTHERN PLAINS INTO THE NORTHEAST, AS HAVING  
A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE WEATHER AND EXCESSIVE RAINFALL TODAY,  
RESPECTIVELY. A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE STORMS IS ALSO OUTLINED  
ALONG THE CANADIAN BORDER IN THE NORTHEAST TODAY, DUE TO IT'S  
PROXIMITY TO THE LOW PRESSURE CENTER AND BETTER CONVECTIVE  
POTENTIAL DURING THE AFTERNOON. FLASH FLOOD WATCHES ARE CURRENTLY  
IN PLACE FOR PORTIONS OF THE MIDDLE MISSISSIPPI VALLEY AND THE  
UPPER GREAT LAKES REGION. A FLOOD WARNING IS ALSO IN PLACE ACROSS  
SOUTH-CENTRAL WISCONSIN, WHERE RECORD FLOODING IS ONGOING ALONG  
THE KICKAPOO RIVER. EXPECT THE THREAT OF SEVERE STORMS AND  
EXCESSIVE RAINFALL TO DRIFT SLOWLY SOUTHEAST WITH THE FRONTAL  
BOUNDARY OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS.  
 
THE STRONG RIDGE IN PLACE ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST WILL MAKE IT  
DIFFICULT FOR THE COLD FRONT TO MAKE MUCH EASTWARD PROGRESSION  
OVER THE COMING DAYS. MEANWHILE, THE DEEP SURGE OF WARM AND HUMID  
AIR TOWARDS THE BOUNDARY WILL COUPLE WITH THIS RIDGE, RESULTING IN  
A CONTINUED HEAT WAVE ACROSS THE REGION. MUCH OF THE NORTHEAST,  
AND PORTIONS OF THE MID-ATLANTIC ARE UNDER HEAT ADVISORIES FOR  
TODAY, AS HIGH TEMPERATURES ARE FORECAST TO BE IN THE MID AND  
UPPER 90S, WITH HEAT INDICES IN THE TRIPLE DIGITS. SOME LOCATIONS  
MAY ALSO MEET OR EXCEED DAILY RECORD HIGH TEMPERATURES TODAY.  
FURTHERMORE, MANY LOCATIONS SOUTHEAST OF THE COLD FRONT WILL  
LIKELY MEET OR EXCEED THE RECORD FOR HIGH MINIMUM/MORNING  
TEMPERATURE BOTH THIS MORNING AND THURSDAY MORNING.  
 
ELSEWHERE ACROSS THE U.S., FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS ARE STARTING TO  
CREEP BACK INTO THE PICTURE ONCE AGAIN FOR PORTIONS OF THE  
NORTHWEST. RED FLAG WARNINGS AND FIRE WEATHER WATCHES ARE IN PLACE  
ACROSS MUCH OF WYOMING FOR TODAY AND THURSDAY DUE WARM  
TEMPERATURES, LOW RELATIVE HUMIDITIES, AND GUSTY WINDS. SOUTHWEST  
OREGON IS ALSO STILL UNDER AN AIR QUALITY ALERT DUE TO SMOKE FROM  
A NEARBY WILDFIRE.  
 
WIX  
 
GRAPHICS AVAILABLE AT  
WWW.WPC.NCEP.NOAA.GOV/BASICWX/BASICWX_NDFD.PHP  

 
 
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