052  
FXUS01 KWBC 300823  
PMDSPD  
 
SHORT RANGE FORECAST DISCUSSION  
NWS WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD  
423 AM EDT THU AUG 30 2018  
 
VALID 12Z THU AUG 30 2018 - 12Z SAT SEP 01 2018  
 
...SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS EXPECTED ACROSS THE MID ATLANTIC AND  
MIDDLE MISSISSIPPI VALLEY TODAY...  
 
...HEAVY RAIN AND SEVERE WEATHER POSSIBLE FOR THE MISSISSIPPI  
VALLEY TONIGHT AND FRIDAY...  
 
...HEAT WAVE TO CONTINUE ACROSS MUCH OF THE SOUTHERN AND EASTERN  
U.S....  
   
..FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS BEGIN TO RESURFACE ACROSS THE WEST
 
 
A STRONG COLD FRONT IS SLOWLY MOVING SOUTH AND EAST, STRETCHING  
FROM NEW ENGLAND TO THE CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN PLAINS. AS THIS  
BOUNDARY SLOWS AND STALLS ACROSS THE MID-ATLANTIC AND INTO THE  
MIDDLE MISSISSIPPI VALLEY TODAY, MORE ROUNDS OF SHOWERS AND  
THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED ALONG THE BOUNDARY. SOME OF THESE  
THUNDERSTORMS COULD PRODUCE LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL--THUS A  
MARGINAL RISK OF FLASH FLOODING IS POSSIBLE FROM THE MID ATLANTIC  
INLAND THROUGH THE TENNESSEE VALLEY TODAY.  
MEANWHILE, A PORTION OF THE FRONT ACROSS THE SOUTHERN AND CENTRAL  
PLAINS WILL SHIFT NORTHWARD AND TRANSITION INTO A WARM FRONT  
TODAY, GUIDED BY A DEVELOPING AREA OF LOW PRESSURE. AS THIS  
FRONTAL BOUNDARY CONTINUES TO TRAVERSE EASTWARD ACROSS THE PLAINS  
AND TOWARDS THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY, THUNDERSTORMS CAPABLE OF  
PRODUCING HEAVY RAINFALL ARE FORECAST FOR TONIGHT NIGHT AND FRIDAY  
MORNING. THE COMBINATION OF HEAVY RAIN POTENTIAL AND ALREADY  
SATURATED SOILS HAVE LED TO A SLIGHT RISK OF FLASH FLOODING FOR  
THE MIDDLE MISSOURI VALLEY THIS EVENING AND OVERNIGHT. THE STORM  
PREDICTION CENTER HAS ALSO ISSUED A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE  
THUNDERSTORMS STRETCHING FROM SOUTHERN MINNESOTA SOUTHWARD INTO  
EASTERN KANSAS AND WESTERN MISSOURI DURING THIS TIME FRAME AS  
WELL.  
 
BY FRIDAY, THE CLUSTER OF STORMS WILL CONTINUE IMPACTING THE  
MIDDLE MISSISSIPPI VALLEY, ESPECIALLY AS THE CENTER OF LOW  
PRESSURE CONTINUES TO STRENGTHEN, AND A DEEP LAYER OF WARM MOIST  
AIR IS LIFTED NORTHWARD FROM THE GULF OF MEXICO AIDING IN STORM  
DEVELOPMENT. THIS WILL BE FURTHER EXASPERATED BY ANOTHER COLD  
FRONT DROPPING SOUTHEAST FROM CANADA INTO THE NORTHERN PLAINS,  
BRINGING WITH IT A SURGE OF COLDER AIR. THE CLASH OF THE TWO AIR  
MASSES COULD LEAD TO STRONG STORMS ACROSS THE MID AND UPPER  
MISSISSIPPI VALLEYS AS WELL AS INTO THE FAR WESTERN PLAINS. THIS  
AREA HAS BEEN OUTLINED AS BEING IN A SLIGHT RISK FOR SEVERE  
THUNDERSTORMS BY THE STORM PREDICTION CENTER FOR FRIDAY. THE  
WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER HAS ALSO OUTLINED MUCH OF THE UPPER AND  
MID MISSISSIPPI VALLEYS AS BEING IN A SLIGHT RISK FOR FLASH  
FLOODING AS WELL.  
 
WITH A STRONG UPPER LEVEL RIDGE BEING THE DOMINANT FEATURE ACROSS  
THE SOUTHEAST, LOCATIONS AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT WILL REMAIN IN A  
VERY WARM AND HUMID AIRMASS. ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES ARE  
EXPECTED TO PERSIST THROUGH TODAY FROM THE THE SOUTHERN PLAINS ALL  
THE WAY INTO THE COASTAL NEW ENGLAND. A HEAT ADVISORY REMAINS IN  
PLACE ACROSS CONNECTICUT, RHODE ISLAND, AND SOUTHERN MASSACHUSETTS  
THROUGH THIS EVENING. ONCE THE COLD FRONT IS ABLE TO PUSH THROUGH  
SOME OF THESE REGIONS BY FRIDAY, TEMPERATURES WILL COOL  
SIGNIFICANTLY. MEANWHILE, THE PRESENCE OF THIS MOIST AND UNSTABLE  
AIRMASS ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST WILL RESULT IN ISOLATED TO SCATTERED  
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS HERE THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK.  
 
ELSEWHERE ACROSS THE U.S., FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS ARE REARING THEIR  
HEAD AGAIN ACROSS THE MOUNTAINOUS REGIONS OF THE WEST. PORTIONS OF  
UTAH, WYOMING, AND WESTERN COLORADO ARE IN A RED FLAG WARNING OR  
FIRE WEATHER WATCH THROUGH TODAY DUE TO THE COMBINATION OF WARM  
TEMPERATURES, LOW HUMIDITIES, AND HIGH WINDS. SOUTHWEST OREGON IS  
STILL UNDER AN AIR QUALITY ALERT DUE TO SMOKE FROM A NEARBY  
WILDFIRE AS WELL.  
 
WIX  
 
GRAPHICS AVAILABLE AT  
WWW.WPC.NCEP.NOAA.GOV/BASICWX/BASICWX_NDFD.PHP  

 
 
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