121  
FXUS01 KWBC 310807  
PMDSPD  
 
SHORT RANGE FORECAST DISCUSSION  
NWS WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD  
406 AM EDT FRI AUG 31 2018  
 
VALID 12Z FRI AUG 31 2018 - 12Z SUN SEP 02 2018  
 
...HEAVY RAIN AND SEVERE WEATHER POSSIBLE FOR THE MISSISSIPPI  
VALLEY THROUGH SATURDAY...  
   
..HEAT WAVE COMING TO AN END ALONG THE EAST COAST.
 
 
   
..FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS ACROSS THE WEST
 
 
THE NORTH-CENTRAL PORTIONS OF THE U.S. WILL BE IN AN ACTIVE WET  
PATTERN INTO THE WEEKEND AS A MULTIPLE FRONTS MOVE THROUGH THE  
NORTHERN PLAINS AND UPPER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY/UPPER MIDWEST.  
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO FOCUS ALONG AND NORTH OF  
A WARM FRONT LIFTING THROUGH IOWA INTO MINNESOTA AND WISCONSIN,  
WITH STORM MOTION LIKELY TRACKING OVER THE SAME AREA. THIS, IN  
COMBINATION WITH HIGHER RAINFALL RATES, WILL ELEVATE THE RISK FOR  
FLOODING CONCERNS. WITH RECENT HEAVY RAINFALL, MINIMAL ADDITIONAL  
AMOUNTS WILL BE NEEDED TO AGGRAVATE ONGOING FLOODING. THESE STORMS  
MAY BE CAPABLE OF PRODUCING FLASH FLOODING--WHICH IS HIGHLIGHTED  
BY WPC'S EXCESSIVE RAINFALL OUTLOOK WITH A SLIGHT RISK.  
 
ADDITIONALLY, SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS MAY DEVELOP OVER THIS CORRIDOR  
COLD FRONT SWEEPS THROUGH THE NORTHERN PLAINS INTO THE UPPER  
MIDWEST. THE STORM PREDICTION CENTER HAS MUCH OF THE MIDDLE AND  
UPPER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY HIGHLIGHTED IN A SLIGHT RISK. ANOTHER  
CLUSTER OF THUNDERSTORMS WILL MOVE ACROSS THE UPPER/MIDDLE  
MISSISSIPPI VALLEY AND PORTIONS OF THE OHIO VALLEY ON SATURDAY.  
ONCE THE FRONT STALLS ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES AND INTO THE CENTRAL  
PLAINS, SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS CAN BE EXPECTED ALONG  
THE FRONT.  
 
A COOLER AND LESS MUGGY AIRMASS WILL FILTER INTO THE NORTHEAST AND  
MID-ATLANTIC REGIONS AS A COLD FRONT MOVES IN AND THEN STALLS.  
THIS BOUNDARY WILL ACT AS A FOCUS FOR CONTINUOUS ROUNDS OF SHOWERS  
AND THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS FOR THE MID-ATLANTIC,  
TENNESSEE VALLEY, AND SOUTHEAST. THIS ACTIVITY WILL ASSIST IN  
KEEPING THE HIGH TEMPERATURES MUCH COOLER THAN WHAT HAS BEEN  
RECORDED THIS WEEK ESPECIALLY FOR THE MID-ATLANTIC.  
 
MUCH OF THE WEST REMAIN IN CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AS THE HOT AND  
DRY AIRMASS REMAINS IN PLACES. DRY THUNDERSTORMS ALONG WITH  
STRONG, GUSTY WINDS WILL MAINTAIN ELEVATED CONCERNS FOR WILDFIRE  
SPREAD. ALTHOUGH THERE WILL BE A SLIGHT IMPROVE IN THE AMOUNT OF  
SMOKE PRESENT ACROSS SOUTHERN OREGON, AIR QUALITY WILL STILL BE  
COMPROMISED OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS.  
 
ELSEWHERE, SUBTROPICAL MOISTURE WILL AID IN DIURNALLY DRIVEN  
THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE GULF COAST THROUGH SATURDAY--WITH HEAVY  
RAINFALL PARTICULARLY EXPECTED FOR PARTS OF THE CENTRAL GULF COAST  
ON SATURDAY.  
 
CAMPBELL  
 
GRAPHICS AVAILABLE AT  
WWW.WPC.NCEP.NOAA.GOV/BASICWX/BASICWX_NDFD.PHP  

 
 
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