708  
FXUS01 KWBC 020754  
PMDSPD  
 
SHORT RANGE FORECAST DISCUSSION  
NWS WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD  
353 AM EDT SUN SEP 02 2018  
 
VALID 12Z SUN SEP 02 2018 - 12Z TUE SEP 04 2018  
 
...SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS, HEAVY RAIN AND FLASH FLOODING EXPECTED  
FROM PORTIONS OF THE PLAINS TO THE UPPER MIDWEST...  
 
...WIDESPREAD RAIN IS EXPECTED FOR PARTS OF THE SOUTHERN PLAINS,  
LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY AND GULF COAST...  
 
A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE UPPER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY AND  
GREAT LAKES REGION AS A SURFACE CYCLONE TRACKS EAST ACROSS  
NORTHERN MANITOBA AND ONTARIO. AS THE NEXT FRONTAL SYSTEM FORMS  
EAST OF THE ROCKIES AND MOVES OUT INTO THE CENTRAL/NORTHERN PLAINS  
THIS BOUNDARY WILL STALL AND THEN LIFT AS A WARM FRONT BY MONDAY  
NIGHT/TUESDAY MORNING. THIS WILL KEEP MUCH OF THE PLAINS/UPPER  
MISSISSIPPI VALLEY/UPPER GREAT LAKES IN AN ACTIVE WET PATTERN.  
STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WILL LIKELY DEVELOP TODAY ACROSS  
PORTIONS OF KANSAS, NEBRASKA AND IOWA -- WHERE THE STORM  
PREDICTION CENTER HAS ISSUED A SLIGHT RISK FOR SEVERE WEATHER. IN  
ADDITION, THESE STORMS WILL BE CAPABLE OF PRODUCING INTENSE  
RAINFALL RATES. OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS A WIDE SWATH OF AREAL  
AVERAGES OF 2 TO 4 INCHES OF RAIN IS FORECAST, WITH LOCALLY HIGHER  
AMOUNTS. SLIGHT RISKS OF EXCESSIVE RAINFALL/FLASH FLOODING ARE IN  
EFFECT, ALONG WITH A MODERATE RISK ACROSS IOWA AND NORTHWEST  
ILLINOIS. A FEW LOCATIONS ARE ALREADY EXPERIENCING MODERATE TO  
MAJOR RIVER FLOODING ACROSS IOWA AND WISCONSIN. ANY ADDITIONAL  
RAINFALL WILL EXASPERATE THE ONGOING FLOODING.  
 
SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO BREAK OUT ACROSS PORTIONS  
OF THE SOUTHWEST OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS AS UPPER-LEVEL  
DISTURBANCES ENCOUNTER MONSOONAL MOISTURE STREAMING INTO THE  
REGION. ANY OF THESE STORMS COULD PRODUCE LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN. A  
PLUME OF AMPLE MOISTURE WILL STREAM INTO THE WESTERN AND CENTRAL  
GULF COAST THROUGH MONDAY WILL HELP GENERATE WIDESPREAD RAIN AND  
THUNDERSTORMS IN THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY AND GULF COAST. THIS  
MOISTURE PLUME IS FORECAST TO SHIFT WESTWARD, LEADING TO  
WIDESPREAD RAIN AND STORMS BY LABOR DAY IN PARTS OF THE SOUTHERN  
PLAINS. THOUGH CONDITIONS HAVE GENERALLY BEEN DRY THERE, ENOUGH  
RAIN FALLING IN ONE LOCATION COULD STILL CAUSE LOCALIZED FLASH  
FLOODING. SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS CAN BE EXPECTED TO  
FIRE ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE SOUTHEAST AND THE NORTHEAST THROUGH  
THE HOLIDAY WEEKEND, WITH WARM AND HUMID CONDITIONS.  
 
CAMPBELL  
 
GRAPHICS AVAILABLE AT  
WWW.WPC.NCEP.NOAA.GOV/BASICWX/BASICWX_NDFD.PHP  

 
 
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