698  
FXUS01 KWBC 022000  
PMDSPD  
 
SHORT RANGE FORECAST DISCUSSION  
NWS WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD  
359 PM EDT SUN SEP 02 2018  
 
VALID 00Z MON SEP 03 2018 - 00Z WED SEP 05 2018  
 
...CONTINUED THUNDERSTORMS WITH SEVERE AND FLASH FLOODING  
POTENTIAL ARE EXPECTED FOR PORTIONS OF THE PLAINS TO UPPER  
MIDWEST...  
 
...WIDESPREAD RAIN IS FORECAST ACROSS THE SOUTHERN PLAINS INTO THE  
LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY...  
 
...A POTENTIAL TROPICAL CYCLONE COULD CAUSE HEAVY RAINFALL FOR  
SOUTHERN FLORIDA ON MONDAY...  
 
MULTIPLE ROUNDS OF HEAVY RAINFALL AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE  
IN PARTS OF THE PLAINS TO THE UPPER MIDWEST OVER THE NEXT COUPLE  
OF DAYS. A STALLING FRONT WILL LINGER ACROSS THESE AREAS ON MONDAY  
BEFORE ANOTHER COLD FRONT APPROACHES ON TUESDAY, CREATING MORE  
POSSIBILITIES FOR RAIN AS MOISTURE FROM THE GULF OF MEXICO REMAINS  
IN THE AREA. MANY OF THESE AREAS HAVE ALREADY SEEN EXCESSIVE  
RAINFALL RECENTLY, AND RIVER FLOODING IS ONGOING IN SOME  
LOCATIONS. ANY ADDITIONAL RAINFALL WILL EXACERBATE THE ONGOING  
FLOODING. SLIGHT TO MODERATE RISKS OF FLASH FLOODING ARE IN EFFECT  
THROUGH THE BEGINNING OF THE WEEK. THE STORM PREDICTION CENTER HAS  
PARTS OF THE CENTRAL PLAINS OUTLOOKED WITH A SLIGHT RISK FOR  
SEVERE WEATHER AS WELL.  
 
CONVERGENCE ALONG THE GULF COAST AND COPIOUS AMOUNTS OF MOISTURE  
WILL LEAD TO CONTINUED HEAVY RAIN AND THUNDERSTORMS ALONG THE  
UPPER TEXAS AND LOUISIANA COAST ON SUNDAY NIGHT. THE HEAVY  
RAINFALL COULD PRODUCE FLASH FLOODING, ESPECIALLY IN URBAN AREAS.  
THE PLUME OF AMPLE MOISTURE IS EXPECTED TO SHIFT A BIT WEST ON  
MONDAY AND TUESDAY. THE MOISTURE AND AN UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH JUST TO  
THE WEST WILL COMBINE TO PRODUCE WIDESPREAD RAIN OVER PARTS OF THE  
SOUTHERN PLAINS. SLIGHT RISKS OF EXCESSIVE RAINFALL/FLASH FLOODING  
ARE IN EFFECT FOR WESTERN TEXAS ON MONDAY AND TUESDAY. THOUGH  
CONDITIONS HAVE GENERALLY BEEN DRY THERE, ENOUGH RAIN FALLING IN  
ONE LOCATION COULD STILL CAUSE FLASH FLOODING.  
 
A POTENTIAL TROPICAL CYCLONE IS FORECAST TO FORM NEAR THE FLORIDA  
KEYS ON SUNDAY NIGHT. THIS POTENTIAL TROPICAL CYCLONE PLUS PLENTY  
OF TROPICAL MOISTURE WILL CREATE A HEAVY RAIN THREAT FOR THE  
FLORIDA PENINSULA ON MONDAY, PARTICULARLY IN SOUTHERN FLORIDA. THE  
CYCLONE IS FORECAST TO CONTINUE MOVING NORTHWESTWARD AND APPROACH  
THE CENTRAL GULF COAST BY TUESDAY NIGHT. PLEASE SEE THE NATIONAL  
HURRICANE CENTER'S WEBSITE FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION ON THIS  
POTENTIAL TROPICAL CYCLONE.  
 
TATE  
 
GRAPHICS AVAILABLE AT  
WWW.WPC.NCEP.NOAA.GOV/BASICWX/BASICWX_NDFD.PHP  

 
 
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