126  
FXUS01 KWBC 112000  
PMDSPD  
 
SHORT RANGE FORECAST DISCUSSION  
NWS WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD  
359 PM EDT TUE SEP 11 2018  
 
VALID 00Z WED SEP 12 2018 - 00Z FRI SEP 14 2018  
 
...HURRICANE FLORENCE IS CURRENTLY A CATEGORY FOUR MAJOR  
HURRICANE, RESIDENTS IN THE SOUTHEAST AND MID-ATLANTIC SHOULD  
CLOSELY MONITOR THIS EXTREMELY DANGEROUS SYSTEM...  
 
...HEAVY RAIN POSSIBLE OVER PARTS OF THE CENTRAL/WESTERN GULF  
COAST...  
   
..FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS SPREAD ACROSS MUCH OF THE WEST
 
 
FLORENCE REMAINS A MAJOR CATEGORY FOUR HURRICANE. THE CYCLONE IS  
FORECAST TO SLOWLY MOVE NORTHWESTERLY TOWARDS THE  
SOUTHEAST/SOUTHERN MID-ATLANTIC COAST BY FRIDAY MORNING, MAKING  
LANDFALL IN NORTH CAROLINA. EXCESSIVE RAINFALL AND STORM SURGE  
WILL PROCEED THE LANDFALL OF THE HURRICANE, WITH HURRICANE WATCHES  
IN EFFECT ACROSS MUCH OF THE SOUTH CAROLINA AND NORTH CAROLINA  
COASTLINES. PLEASE SEE THE LATEST NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER  
ADVISORIES FOR UPDATES TO THE FORECAST TRACK AND DETAILS OF ANY  
WATCHES AND WARNINGS ASSOCIATED WITH FLORENCE.  
 
MEANWHILE, A QUASI-STATIONARY FRONT WILL REMAIN IN PLACE OVER THE  
NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS, STRETCHING FROM THE TEXAS GULF COAST  
NORTHEAST INTO THE MID-ATLANTIC. EVENTUALLY THIS FRONT WILL BEGIN  
TO BREAK APART AS THE HURRICANE NEARS THE COASTLINE, BUT UNTIL  
THEN, EXPECT SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ALONG  
AND SOUTHEAST OF THE FRONT. THE WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER HAS  
OUTLINED MUCH OF THE TEXAS COASTLINE AND THE WESTERN LOUISIANA  
COASTLINE AS BEING IN A SLIGHT RISK OF EXCESSIVE RAINFALL AND  
FLASH FLOODING THROUGH TONIGHT. A MARGINAL RISK WILL CONTINUE  
THROUGH THE DAY WEDNESDAY AS WELL. A MARGINAL RISK OF EXCESSIVE  
RAINFALL ALSO EXISTS ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE MID-ATLANTIC AND INTO  
THE COASTAL NORTHEAST TODAY AND WEDNESDAY ALONG THE FRONTAL  
BOUNDARY.  
 
ACROSS THE WESTERN U.S., A LARGE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL BEGIN  
SHIFTING INTO THE REGION FROM THE NORTHWEST. WHILE NOT MUCH IN THE  
WAY OF PRECIPITATION IS EXPECTED WITH THIS SYSTEM OVER THE NEXT  
FEW DAYS, IT WILL PROMOTE GUSTY CONDITIONS. THIS, COMBINED WITH  
LOW HUMIDITIES, WILL CREATE THE POTENTIAL FOR EXPLOSIVE FIRE  
GROWTH ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE WEST. RED FLAG WARNINGS ARE IN  
EFFECT FROM NORTHERN CALIFORNIA, ACROSS THE CENTRAL GREAT BASIN,  
CENTRAL ROCKIES, AND WESTERN PORTIONS OF THE CENTRAL PLAINS  
THROUGH AT LEAST WEDNESDAY EVENING. MANY EXTEND INTO THURSDAY AS  
WELL. A FIRE WEATHER WATCH IS ALSO IN EFFECT FOR SOUTHERN NEVADA  
AND NORTHERN WYOMING FOR THIS TIME.  
 
WIX  
 
GRAPHICS AVAILABLE AT  
WWW.WPC.NCEP.NOAA.GOV/BASICWX/BASICWX_NDFD.PHP  

 
 
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