739  
FXUS01 KWBC 120759  
PMDSPD  
 
SHORT RANGE FORECAST DISCUSSION  
NWS WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD  
358 AM EDT WED SEP 12 2018  
 
VALID 12Z WED SEP 12 2018 - 12Z FRI SEP 14 2018  
 
...MAJOR HURRICANE FLORENCE CONTINUES TO BEAR DOWN ON THE  
CAROLINAS AND MID-ATLANTIC...  
 
...EXTREMELY HEAVY RAIN EXPECTED OVER PARTS OF THE CAROLINA  
COAST...  
 
...HEAVY RAIN POSSIBLE OVER PARTS OF THE CENTRAL/WESTERN GULF  
COAST...  
 
MAJOR HURRICANE FLORENCE IS FORECAST TO SLOWLY MOVE NORTHWESTERLY  
TOWARDS THE SOUTHEAST/SOUTHERN MID-ATLANTIC COAST BY THURSDAY  
EVENING INTO FRIDAY MORNING, MAKING LANDFALL IN NORTH CAROLINA.  
EXCESSIVE RAINFALL AND STORM SURGE WILL PROCEED THE LANDFALL OF  
THE HURRICANE, WITH HURRICANE WATCHES IN EFFECT ACROSS MUCH OF THE  
SOUTH CAROLINA AND NORTH CAROLINA COASTLINES. SHOWERS AND  
THUNDERSTORMS ASSOCIATED WITH FLORENCE WILL START ON THURSDAY  
MORNING OVER PARTS OF THE CAROLINAS THAT WILL STEADILY MOVE  
FARTHER INLAND THURSDAY EVENING INTO FRIDAY. PLEASE SEE THE  
LATEST NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER ADVISORIES FOR UPDATES TO THE  
FORECAST TRACK AND DETAILS OF ANY WATCHES AND WARNINGS ASSOCIATED  
WITH FLORENCE.  
 
MEANWHILE, A QUASI-STATIONARY FRONT EXTENDING FROM THE  
MID-ATLANTIC SOUTHWESTWARD TO THE WESTERN GULF COAST WILL SLOWLY  
DISSIPATE FROM THE WESTERN GULF COAST TO THE CENTRAL APPALACHIANS  
BY THURSDAY MORNING. SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL DEVELOP ALONG  
AND NEAR THE BOUNDARY FROM SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND TO THE SOUTHERN  
MID-ATLANTIC COAST THAT WILL EXPAND SOUTHWARD ALONG THE FRONT WITH  
DAYTIME HEATING INTO PARTS OF THE SOUTHEAST. OVERNIGHT WEDNESDAY,  
THE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL WANE OVER THE SOUTHERN  
MID-ATLANTIC INTO THE SOUTHEAST. SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL  
CONTINUE OVER PARTS OF THE LOWER GREAT LAKES/NORTHERN MID-ATLANTIC  
THROUGH THURSDAY EVENING INTO FRIDAY. IN ADDITION, ALONG THE  
SOUTHERN END OF THE BOUNDARY SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL  
DEVELOP OVER PARTS OF THE WESTERN/CENTRAL GULF COAST INTO PARTS OF  
THE TENNESSEE VALLEY THROUGH FRIDAY MORNING.  
 
ADDITIONALLY, A FRONT EXTENDING FROM THE UPPER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY  
ROUGHLY SOUTHWESTWARD INTO PARTS OF THE GREAT BASIN WILL REMAIN  
QUASI-STATIONARY THROUGH THURSDAY EVENING. SHOWERS AND  
THUNDERSTORMS WILL DEVELOP ALONG AND NEAR THE BOUNDARY FROM PARTS  
OF THE UPPER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY INTO PARTS OF THE NORTHERN PLAINS  
THROUGH THURSDAY EVENING. A SECONDARY FRONT MOVING SOUTH OUT OF  
WESTERN CANADA WILL REINFORCE THE AFOREMENTIONED FRONT BY THURSDAY  
NIGHT INTO FRIDAY. THE SYSTEM WILL AID IN PRODUCING SHOWERS AND  
THUNDERSTORMS OVER PARTS OF THE NORTHERN ROCKIES/NORTHERN  
INTERMOUNTAIN REGION OVERNIGHT WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY EVENING.  
FURTHERMORE, ONSHORE FLOW OVER THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST WILL AID IN  
PRODUCING RAIN WITH EMBEDDED DAYTIME THUNDERSTORMS OVER PARTS OF  
THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST THROUGH THURSDAY EVENING.  
 
ZIEGENFELDER  
 
GRAPHICS AVAILABLE AT  
WWW.WPC.NCEP.NOAA.GOV/BASICWX/BASICWX_NDFD.PHP  

 
 
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