312  
FXUS01 KWBC 130813  
PMDSPD  
 
SHORT RANGE FORECAST DISCUSSION  
NWS WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD  
412 AM EDT THU SEP 13 2018  
 
VALID 12Z THU SEP 13 2018 - 12Z SAT SEP 15 2018  
 
...HURRICANE FLORENCE WILL BRING STORM SURGE, FLASH FLOODING, AND  
DESTRUCTIVE WINDS TO MUCH OF THE NORTH AND SOUTH CAROLINA  
COASTLINE...  
 
...CATASTROPHIC FLOODING AND DANGEROUS STORM SURGE EXPECTED OVER  
PARTS OF THE CAROLINA COAST...  
 
...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE WEATHER OVER PARTS OF NORTH  
CAROLINA COAST...  
   
..HEAVY RAIN POSSIBLE ALONG THE WESTERN/CENTRAL GULF COAST
 
 
HURRICANE FLORENCE WILL BEGIN IMPACTING THE CAROLINA COAST ON  
THURSDAY. HURRICANE WARNINGS ARE NOW IN EFFECT AS HURRICANE FORCE  
WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO BEGIN HITTING THE COAST BY LATE THURSDAY.  
THE STORM WILL PRODUCE EXTREMELY HEAVY RAIN ACROSS COASTAL NORTH  
CAROLINA THROUGH SATURDAY. HEAVY RAIN WILL ALSO DEVELOP OVER  
PARTS OF SOUTH CAROLINA AND SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS MOVE INTO  
WESTERN NORTH CAROLINA THROUGH SATURDAY. STORM SURGE IS FORECAST  
TO IMPACT MULTIPLE LOCATIONS ALONG THE CAROLINA COASTLINE, AND  
WILL BE ACCOMPANIED BY LARGE DESTRUCTIVE WAVES. PLEASE SEE THE  
LATEST NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER ADVISORIES FOR UPDATES ON THE  
FORECAST TRACK, IMPACTS, AND DETAILS OF ANY WATCHES AND WARNINGS  
ASSOCIATED WITH HURRICANE FLORENCE.  
 
MEANWHILE, EASTERLY FLOW OFF THE ATLANTIC OCEAN WILL AID IN  
PRODUCING SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS OVER PARTS OF THE  
MID-ATLANTIC/SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND INTO PARTS OF THE LOWER GREAT  
LAKES/EASTERN OHIO VALLEY THROUGH FRIDAY MORNING. IN ADDITION,  
SOUTHEASTERLY FLOW OFF THE WESTERN GULF OF MEXICO AND UPPER-LEVEL  
ENERGY WILL AID IN PRODUCING SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS OVER PARTS  
OF THE CENTRAL/WESTERN GULF COAST INTO PARTS OF THE SOUTHERN  
PLAINS THROUGH FRIDAY EVENING INTO SATURDAY. ADDITIONALLY,  
TROPICAL MOISTURE AND DAYTIME HEATING WILL PRODUCE SHOWERS AND  
THUNDERSTORMS OVER PARTS OF THE TENNESSEE VALLEY AND SOUTHERN  
APPALACHIANS THROUGH LATE THURSDAY NIGHT. SIMILARLY, TROPICAL  
MOISTURE AND DAYTIME HEATING OVER FLORIDA WILL TRIGGER SHOWERS AND  
THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE AREA THROUGH FRIDAY EVENING.  
 
ELSEWHERE, A FRONT EXTENDING FROM THE NORTHERN PLAINS INTO THE  
CENTRAL ROCKIES/GREAT BASIN WILL MOVE EASTWARD TO THE UPPER GREAT  
LAKES/UPPER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY INTO PARTS OF THE NORTHERN/CENTRAL  
PLAINS BY FRIDAY EVENING. SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL DEVELOP  
ALONG AND NEAR THE BOUNDARY OVER PARTS OF NORTHERN PLAINS/UPPER  
GREAT LAKES THAT WILL MOVE EASTWARD INTO THE UPPER GREAT  
LAKES/UPPER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY AND PARTS OF THE NORTHERN PLAINS BY  
FRIDAY EVENING. A REINFORCING FRONT EXTENDING FROM WEST-CENTRAL  
CANADA INTO THE NORTHERN INTERMOUNTAIN REGION WILL, LIKEWISE, MOVE  
EASTWARD INTO PARTS OF THE NORTHERN PLAINS SOUTHWESTWARD INTO  
PARTS OF THE GREAT BASIN WHILE MOSTLY DISSIPATING BY FRIDAY  
EVENING. RAIN WITH EMBEDDED THUNDERSTORMS WILL DEVELOP OVER PARTS  
OF THE NORTHERN INTERMOUNTAIN REGION/NORTHERN ROCKIES THAT WILL  
MOVE INTO PARTS OF THE NORTHERN HIGH PLAINS AND DISSIPATE BY  
FRIDAY. FURTHERMORE, WEAK ONSHORE FLOW WILL AID IN PRODUCING RAIN  
WITH A FEW EMBEDDED DAYTIME THUNDERSTORMS WILL DEVELOP OVER PARTS  
OF THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST THROUGH FRIDAY EVENING.  
 
ZIEGENFELDER  
 
GRAPHICS AVAILABLE AT  
WWW.WPC.NCEP.NOAA.GOV/BASICWX/BASICWX_NDFD.PHP  

 
 
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