378  
FXUS01 KWBC 132037  
PMDSPD  
 
SHORT RANGE FORECAST DISCUSSION  
NWS WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD  
437 PM EDT THU SEP 13 2018  
 
VALID 00Z FRI SEP 14 2018 - 00Z SUN SEP 16 2018  
   
..HURRICANE FLORENCE IS BEARING DOWN ON THE CAROLINA COASTLINE
 
 
...CATASTROPHIC FLOODING AND LIFE-THREATENING SURGE EXPECTED OVER  
PARTS OF THE CAROLINA COAST...  
 
...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE WEATHER OVER PARTS OF NORTH  
CAROLINA COAST...  
 
...HEAVY RAIN POSSIBLE ACROSS THE NORTHERN MID-ATLANTIC COAST AND  
ACROSS SOUTHERN AND COASTAL TEXAS...  
 
...FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS CONTINUE ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE WESTERN  
U.S....  
 
HURRICANE FLORENCE IS CURRENTLY BEARING DOWN ON THE CAROLINA  
COAST. HURRICANE WARNINGS ARE IN EFFECT ACROSS THE CAROLINA AND  
SOUTHERN VIRGINIA COASTLINES AS HURRICANE FORCE WINDS ARE  
IMPACTING THE REGION. THIS STORM WILL ALSO PRODUCE  
LIFE-THREATENING STORM SURGE AND HEAVY RAINFALL AS IT SLOWLY MOVES  
ONSHORE BY FRIDAY MORNING. THE GREATEST STORM SURGE INUNDATION IS  
FORECASTED BETWEEN CAPE FEAR AND CAPE HATTERAS. CATASTROPHIC  
RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF 20 TO 30 INCHES WITH ISOLATED AMOUNTS OF 40  
INCHES ARE EXPECTED ACROSS SOUTHEAST COASTAL NORTH CAROLINA AND  
NORTHEASTERN SOUTH CAROLINA INTO THE WEEKEND. THE REMAINDER OF  
SOUTH CAROLINA, NORTH CAROLINA, AND SOUTHWEST VIRGINIA ARE  
FORECAST TO RECEIVE 6 TO 12 INCHES, WITH ISOLATED AMOUNTS OF 15  
INCHES. FLASH FLOOD WATCHES ARE IN EFFECT FOR MUCH OF THIS REGION.  
THE STORM PREDICTION CENTER HAS ALSO ISSUED A SLIGHT RISK FOR  
SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE NORTH CAROLINA COAST THROUGH THE  
DAY FRIDAY. PLEASE SEE THE LATEST NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER  
ADVISORIES FOR UPDATES ON THE FORECAST TRACK, IMPACTS, AND DETAILS  
OF ANY WATCHES AND WARNINGS ASSOCIATED WITH HURRICANE FLORENCE.  
 
ONSHORE FLOW OFF THE ATLANTIC OCEAN IN ASSOCIATION WITH THE  
HURRICANE WILL AID IN SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ALONG THE COASTAL  
NORTHERN MID ATLANTIC FRIDAY AND INTO THE WEEKEND. THE WEATHER  
PREDICTION CENTER HAS ISSUED A MARGINAL AND SLIGHT RISK OF  
EXCESSIVE RAINFALL AND FLASH FLOODING THROUGH THE WEEKEND AS A  
RESULT. MEANWHILE, A TROPICAL DISTURBANCE IS CURRENTLY SITTING  
ACROSS THE WESTERN GULF OF MEXICO AND IS RESULTING IN ONSHORE FLOW  
ACROSS TEXAS. THIS WILL PROMOTE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS  
SOUTHERN AND EASTERN TEXAS OVER THE COMING DAYS, ESPECIALLY NEAR  
THE COASTLINE. MARGINAL AND SLIGHT RISKS OF EXCESSIVE RAINFALL ARE  
IN PLACE HERE AS WELL. FLASH FLOOD WATCHES ARE ALSO IN EFFECT  
ALONG THE COAST AND ACROSS SOUTHERN TEXAS.  
 
FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS CONTINUE ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE WESTERN U.S.  
AS DRY CONDITIONS CONTINUE TO COUPLE WITH ABOVE NORMAL  
TEMPERATURES AND GUSTY SOUTHERLY WINDS. RED FLAG WARNINGS REMAIN  
IN EFFECT FROM THE SOUTHERN SIERRA NEVADAS EASTWARD ACROSS THE  
CENTRAL GREAT BASIN, CENTRAL ROCKIES AND A PORTION OF THE WESTERN  
PLAINS. MEANWHILE, FARTHER NORTHWARD, A COOLER AIRMASS IS MOVING  
INTO PLACE. A FREEZE WARNING HAS BEEN ISSUED ACROSS A PORTION OF  
NORTHWEST CALIFORNIA AND SOUTH-CENTRAL OREGON FOR OVERNIGHT/FRIDAY  
MORNING LOWS.  
 
WIX  
 
GRAPHICS AVAILABLE AT  
WWW.WPC.NCEP.NOAA.GOV/BASICWX/BASICWX_NDFD.PHP  

 
 
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