359  
FXUS01 KWBC 140735  
PMDSPD  
 
SHORT RANGE FORECAST DISCUSSION  
NWS WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD  
334 AM EDT FRI SEP 14 2018  
 
VALID 12Z FRI SEP 14 2018 - 12Z SUN SEP 16 2018  
 
...HURRICANE FLORENCE WILL PRODUCE MANY THREATS, SUCH AS, HEAVY  
RAIN, DAMAGING WINDS, AND STORM SURGE...  
 
...CATASTROPHIC FLOODING AND LIFE-THREATENING SURGE EXPECTED OVER  
PARTS OF THE CAROLINAS...  
 
...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE WEATHER OVER PARTS OF NORTH  
CAROLINA COAST...  
 
...HEAVY RAIN POSSIBLE ACROSS PARTS OF THE WESTERN GULF COAST AND  
PARTS OF THE SOUTHERN PLAINS...  
 
HURRICANE FLORENCE IS CURRENTLY BEARING DOWN ON THE CAROLINAS.  
HURRICANE WARNINGS ARE IN EFFECT ACROSS THE CAROLINAS AS HURRICANE  
FORCE WINDS ARE IMPACTING THE REGION. THIS STORM WILL ALSO  
PRODUCE LIFE-THREATENING STORM SURGE AND HEAVY RAINFALL AS IT  
SLOWLY MOVES ONSHORE ON FRIDAY MORNING. CATASTROPHIC RAINFALL IS  
EXPECTED ACROSS SOUTHEAST COASTAL NORTH CAROLINA AND NORTHEASTERN  
SOUTH CAROLINA. FLASH FLOOD WATCHES ARE IN EFFECT FOR MUCH OF  
THIS REGION. THE STORM PREDICTION CENTER HAS ALSO ISSUED A SLIGHT  
RISK FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE NORTH CAROLINA COAST.  
PLEASE SEE THE LATEST NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER ADVISORIES FOR  
UPDATES ON THE FORECAST TRACK, IMPACTS, AND DETAILS OF ANY WATCHES  
AND WARNINGS ASSOCIATED WITH HURRICANE FLORENCE.  
 
ONSHORE FLOW OFF THE ATLANTIC OCEAN WILL AID IN PRODUCING RAIN  
WITH EMBEDDED THUNDERSTORMS OVER PARTS OF THE NORTHERN  
MID-ATLANTIC THROUGH SATURDAY EVENING. TROPICAL MOISTURE AND  
DAYTIME HEATING WILL AID IN PRODUCING SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS  
OVER FLORIDA ALSO THROUGH SATURDAY EVENING. ADDITIONALLY,  
SOUTHEASTERLY FLOW OFF THE GULF OF MEXICO AND UPPER-LEVEL ENERGY  
WILL AID IN PRODUCING SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS OVER PARTS OF THE  
CENTRAL/WESTERN GULF COAST INTO PARTS OF THE SOUTHERN PLAINS  
THROUGH SATURDAY EVENING INTO SUNDAY.  
 
MEANWHILE, A FRONT EXTENDING FROM PARTS OF THE UPPER GREAT LAKES  
INTO THE CENTRAL PLAINS WILL BE REINFORCED BY A SECOND FRONT  
EXTENDING FROM CENTRAL CANADA INTO PARTS OF THE NORTHERN PLAINS TO  
THE GREAT BASIN. THE FINAL FRONT WILL EXTEND FROM THE UPPER GREAT  
LAKES WESTWARD INTO THE NORTHERN HIGH PLAINS THEN SOUTHWESTWARD  
INTO THE GREAT BASIN BY SATURDAY EVENING. SHOWERS AND  
THUNDERSTORMS WILL DEVELOP ALONG THE FRONT OVER PARTS OF THE UPPER  
MISSISSIPPI VALLEY/UPPER GREAT LAKES THAT WILL EXPAND INTO THE  
NORTHERN PLAINS BY FRIDAY AFTERNOON CONTINUING INTO SATURDAY  
EVENING. ELSEWHERE, WEAK ONSHORE FLOW OVER THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST  
WILL AID IN PRODUCING RAIN OVER THE AREA THROUGH SATURDAY EVENING.  
 
 
ZIEGENFELDER  
 
GRAPHICS AVAILABLE AT  
WWW.WPC.NCEP.NOAA.GOV/BASICWX/BASICWX_NDFD.PHP  

 
 
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