669  
FXUS01 KWBC 141957  
PMDSPD  
 
SHORT RANGE FORECAST DISCUSSION  
NWS WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD  
356 PM EDT FRI SEP 14 2018  
 
VALID 00Z SAT SEP 15 2018 - 00Z MON SEP 17 2018  
   
..FLORENCE TO CONTINUE DRIFTING SLOWLY INLAND
 
 
...CATASTROPHIC FLASH FLOODING AND PROLONGED RIVER FLOODING LIKELY  
OVER PORTIONS OF THE CAROLINAS AND THE SOUTHERN AND CENTRAL  
APPALACHIANS...  
 
...STRONG WINDS COULD SPREAD INLAND INTO PORTIONS OF THE CAROLINAS  
OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS...  
 
...HEAVY RAIN ACCUMULATIONS EXPECTED FOR THE TEXAS COAST INTO  
SOUTH AND CENTRAL TEXAS...  
 
...ELEVATED TO CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS FOR PORTIONS OF  
THE ROCKIES AND GREAT BASIN...  
 
FLORENCE, WHICH MADE LANDFALL EARLIER TODAY OVER SOUTHEASTERN  
NORTH CAROLINA NEAR CAPE FEAR, HAS ALREADY PRODUCED NUMEROUS  
HURRICANE FORCE WIND GUSTS, AS WELL AS RAINFALL ACCUMULATIONS OF A  
FOOT OR MORE ACROSS PORTIONS OF SOUTHEASTERN NORTH CAROLINA. A  
LIFE-THREATENING STORM SURGE IS ALREADY OCCURRING ALONG PORTIONS  
OF THE NORTH CAROLINA COAST AND IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE INTO  
TONIGHT. THIS SURGE IS ALSO LIKELY ALONG PORTIONS OF THE SOUTH  
CAROLINA COAST. THE GREATEST STORM SURGE INUNDATION IS EXPECTED  
BETWEEN CAPE FEAR AND CAPE HATTERAS, INCLUDING THE NEUSSE AND  
PAMLICO RIVERS AND THE WESTERN PAMLICO SOUND. ALSO, AN ONGOING  
THREAT FOR A FEW TORNADOES IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE INTO TONIGHT  
ACROSS PORTIONS OF EASTERN NORTH CAROLINA.  
 
FLORENCE IS FORECAST TO CONTINUE DRIFTING WEST-SOUTHWEST, MOVING  
ACROSS SOUTH CAROLINA OVER THE NEXT 36-48 HOURS. EVEN THROUGH THE  
STORM IS FORECAST TO GRADUALLY WEAKEN AS IT CONTINUES TO MOVE  
FURTHER INLAND, FLORENCE IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN A DANGEROUS STORM  
-- PRODUCING STRONG WINDS INLAND, AS WELL AS TORRENTIAL RAINFALL  
RATES, RESULTING IN LIFE-THREATENING, CATASTROPHIC FLASH FLOODING  
AND PROLONGED SIGNIFICANT RIVER FLOODING OVER THE CAROLINAS. AS  
FLORENCE BEGINS TO TURN MORE TO THE NORTH THIS WEEKEND, THIS  
FLOODING THREAT IS EXPECTED TO SPREAD NORTH ALONG THE SOUTHERN  
INTO THE CENTRAL APPALACHIANS. ADDITIONALLY, LARGE SWELLS  
AFFECTING PORTIONS OF THE EAST COAST WILL CONTINUE THIS WEEK,  
RESULTING IN LIFE-THREATENING SURF AND RIP CURRENTS.  
 
AN ELONGATED AREA OF LOW PRESSURE CENTERED OVER THE WESTERN GULF  
OF MEXICO IS FORECAST TO MOVE INLAND THIS PERIOD ACROSS SOUTH  
TEXAS AND NORTHEASTERN MEXICO. WHILE DEVELOPMENT INTO A TROPICAL  
DEPRESSION IS NOT EXPECTED, THIS SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE  
GUSTY WINDS AND HEAVY RAINFALL FROM THE TEXAS COAST INTO  
SOUTH-CENTRAL TEXAS INTO THE WEEKEND. THESE RAINS MAY RESULT IN  
DANGEROUS FLASH FLOODING SITUATIONS.  
 
OUT WEST, GUSTY WINDS AND LOW RELATIVELY HUMIDITIES WILL RESULT IN  
ELEVATED TO CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS FROM THE NORTHERN  
ROCKIES TO GREAT BASIN INTO THE WEEKEND. RED FLAG WARNINGS ARE  
CURRENTLY IN PLACE ACROSS MUCH OF CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN WYOMING  
BACK INTO CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN NEVADA.  
 
PEREIRA  
 
GRAPHICS AVAILABLE AT  
WWW.WPC.NCEP.NOAA.GOV/BASICWX/BASICWX_NDFD.PHP  

 
 
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