055  
FXUS01 KWBC 150759  
PMDSPD  
 
SHORT RANGE FORECAST DISCUSSION  
NWS WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD  
359 AM EDT SAT SEP 15 2018  
 
VALID 12Z SAT SEP 15 2018 - 12Z MON SEP 17 2018  
   
..FLORENCE TO CONTINUE DRIFTING SLOWLY INLAND
 
 
...CATASTROPHIC FLASH FLOODING AND PROLONGED RIVER FLOODING LIKELY  
OVER PORTIONS OF THE CAROLINAS AND THE SOUTHERN/CENTRAL  
APPALACHIANS...  
 
...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS OVER PARTS OF  
THE CAROLINAS COAST...  
   
..HEAVY RAIN POSSIBLE OVER PARTS OF SOUTHWESTERN TEXAS
 
 
TROPICAL STORM FLORENCE IS FORECAST TO MOVE WESTWARD TO WESTERN  
SOUTH CAROLINA BEFORE TURNING NORTHWESTWARD THEN NORTH WHILE  
SLOWLY WEAKENING BY MONDAY. HEAVY RAIN WILL DEVELOP OVER PARTS OF  
THE CAROLINAS THROUGH SUNDAY AFTERNOON. RAIN WILL EXPAND INTO  
PARTS OF THE SOUTHERN/CENTRAL APPALACHIANS BY SUNDAY EVENING.  
THIS SURGE IS ALSO LIKELY ALONG PORTIONS OF THE SOUTH CAROLINA  
COAST. PLEASE CHECK THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER ADVISORY FOR  
THE LATEST TRACK AND INTENSITY FORECAST.  
 
MEANWHILE, TROPICAL MOISTURE AND DAYTIME HEATING WILL AID IN  
PRODUCING SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS OVER FLORIDA THROUGH SUNDAY  
EVENING. IN ADDITION, SOUTHEASTERLY FLOW OFF THE GULF OF MEXICO  
AND UPPER-LEVEL ENERGY WILL AID IN PRODUCING SHOWERS AND  
THUNDERSTORMS OVER PARTS OF WESTERN/CENTRAL GULF COAST INTO PARTS  
OF THE SOUTHERN PLAINS THROUGH SUNDAY EVENING INTO MONDAY.  
FURTHERMORE, A FRONT EXTENDING FROM PARTS OF THE UPPER GREAT  
LAKES/UPPER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY SOUTHWESTWARD TO THE GREAT BASIN  
WILL BE QUASI-STATIONARY THROUGH SUNDAY EVENING. SHOWERS AND  
THUNDERSTORMS WILL DEVELOP ALONG AND NEAR THE BOUNDARY OVER THE  
UPPER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY/UPPER GREAT LAKES INTO PARTS OF THE  
NORTHERN PLAINS THAT WILL LIFT NORTHWARD INTO SOUTHERN CANADA BY  
SUNDAY.  
 
ELSEWHERE, UPPER-LEVEL ENERGY MOVING ONSHORE OVER CENTRAL  
CALIFORNIA WILL MOVE NORTHEASTWARD INTO THE NORTHERN HIGH PLAINS  
BY SUNDAY MORNING. THE ENERGY WILL AID IN PRODUCING RAIN WITH  
EMBEDDED THUNDERSTORMS OVER PARTS OF THE NORTHERN INTERMOUNTAIN  
REGION/NORTHERN ROCKIES OVERNIGHT SATURDAY MOVING INTO CANADA BY  
SUNDAY EVENING. ALSO, WEAK ONSHORE FLOW OVER THE PACIFIC  
NORTHWEST WILL AID IN PRODUCING RAIN OVER THE AREA THROUGH SUNDAY  
EVENING.  
 
ZIEGENFELDER  
 
GRAPHICS AVAILABLE AT  
WWW.WPC.NCEP.NOAA.GOV/BASICWX/BASICWX_NDFD.PHP  

 
 
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