450  
FXUS01 KWBC 152001  
PMDSPD  
 
SHORT RANGE FORECAST DISCUSSION  
NWS WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD  
401 PM EDT SAT SEP 15 2018  
 
VALID 00Z SUN SEP 16 2018 - 00Z TUE SEP 18 2018  
 
...FLORENCE WILL CONTINUE TRACK WEST THAN NORTH THROUGH THE  
APPALACHIAN REGION WHILE SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS REMAIN POSSIBLE NEAR  
COASTAL CAROLINAS...  
 
...CATASTROPHIC FLASH FLOODING AND PROLONGED RIVER FLOODING  
EXPECTED TO CONTINUE OVER PORTIONS OF THE CAROLINAS AND THE  
SOUTHERN/CENTRAL APPALACHIANS...  
 
...HEAVY RAIN AND FLASH FLOODING POSSIBLE FOR PORTIONS OF  
SOUTH-CENTRAL TEXAS...  
 
TROPICAL STORM FLORENCE IS FORECAST TO WEAKEN AS IT SLOWLY TRACKS  
WESTWARD THROUGH SOUTH CAROLINA THIS EVENING, TURN NORTH THROUGH  
THE SOUTHERN/CENTRAL APPALACHIANS SUNDAY AND MONDAY THEN EXITING  
THE SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND COAST BY TUESDAY AFTERNOON. EXCESSIVE  
AMOUNTS OF RAIN IS BEING SPREAD ACROSS THIS REGION AND WILL  
CONTINUE TO CAUSE SIGNIFICANT FLOODING OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS.  
PLEASE CHECK THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER ADVISORY FOR THE LATEST  
TRACK AND INTENSITY FORECAST.  
 
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS CAN BE EXPECTED ACROSS  
PORTIONS OF THE SOUTHEAST U.S. SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS CAPABLE OF  
PRODUCING HEAVY RAINFALL WILL BE POSSIBLE OVER PORTIONS OF  
SOUTH-CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN TEXAS. THE STORM PREDICTION CENTER HAS  
THIS REGION IDENTIFIED WITH A SLIGHT RISK FOR SEVERE WEATHER IN  
ADDITION TO WPC HAVING A SLIGHT RISK FOR EXCESSIVE RAINFALL.  
 
A FRONT EXTENDING FROM PARTS OF THE UPPER GREAT LAKES/UPPER  
MISSISSIPPI VALLEY SOUTHWESTWARD TO THE GREAT BASIN WILL BE  
QUASI-STATIONARY OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS. THIS BOUNDARY WILL  
PROVIDE FOCUS FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO DEVELOP OVER THE  
UPPER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY/UPPER GREAT LAKES INTO PARTS OF THE  
NORTHERN PLAINS THAT WILL LIFT NORTHWARD INTO SOUTHERN CANADA  
EARLY NEXT WEEK.  
 
UPPER-LEVEL ENERGY MOVING ONSHORE OVER CENTRAL CALIFORNIA WILL  
TRACK TOWARD THE NORTHERN HIGH PLAINS BY SUNDAY MORNING. THE  
ENERGY WILL AID IN PRODUCING RAIN WITH EMBEDDED THUNDERSTORMS OVER  
PARTS OF THE NORTHERN INTERMOUNTAIN REGION/NORTHERN ROCKIES  
OVERNIGHT AND MOVING INTO CANADA BY SUNDAY EVENING. ALSO, WEAK  
ONSHORE FLOW OVER THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST WILL AID IN PRODUCING RAIN  
OVER THE AREA THROUGH SUNDAY EVENING.  
 
CAMPBELL  
 
GRAPHICS AVAILABLE AT  
WWW.WPC.NCEP.NOAA.GOV/BASICWX/BASICWX_NDFD.PHP  

 
 
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