258  
FXUS01 KWBC 160759  
PMDSPD  
 
SHORT RANGE FORECAST DISCUSSION  
NWS WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD  
359 AM EDT SUN SEP 16 2018  
 
VALID 12Z SUN SEP 16 2018 - 12Z TUE SEP 18 2018  
 
...CATASTROPHIC FLASH FLOODING AND PROLONGED SIGNIFICANT RIVER  
FLOODING EXPECTED TO CONTINUE OVER PORTIONS OF THE CAROLINAS AND  
THE SOUTHERN/CENTRAL APPALACHIANS...  
 
...FLORENCE WILL TRAVEL FARTHER WEST INTO THE CAROLINAS THEN TAKE  
A NORTHERLY TURN ACROSS THE CENTRAL APPALACHIANS INTO THE  
MID-ATLANTIC...  
   
..HEAVY RAIN TO IMPACT PORTIONS OF THE NORTHEAST
 
 
FOR THE MOST RECENT INFORMATION REGARDING THE TRACK AND INTENSITY  
OF TROPICAL STORM FLORENCE, VISIT WWW.HURRICANES.GOV. FOR ALL  
INFORMATION ON THE RAINFALL ASSOCIATED WITH FLORENCE AND THE  
EXCESSIVE RAINFALL OUTLOOKS, VISIT WWW.WPC.NCEP.NOAA.GOV  
 
TROPICAL STORM FLORENCE WILL WEAKEN AS IT CONTINUES A WESTERLY  
PATH TOWARD THE APPALACHIANS IN THE CAROLINAS. BY LATE SUNDAY  
NIGHT AND INTO EARLY MONDAY MORNING, THE CENTER OF FLORENCE WILL  
TURN NORTH AND MOVE OVER THE APPALACHIANS--MAKING IT TO THE  
NORTHERN MID-ATLANTIC BY TUESDAY MORNING. THE AXIS OF HEAVY  
RAINFALL IS EXPECTED TO OCCUR ACROSS NORTHERN SOUTH CAROLINA, MOST  
OF NORTH CAROLINA--WITH THE EXCEPTION OF NORTHEASTERN PORTIONS OF  
THE STATE, AND INTO WESTERN VIRGINIA. ON MONDAY, AS FLORENCE  
TRAVELS NORTHWARD, THE HEAVY RAINFALL WILL ALSO SHIFT NORTHWARD  
AWAY FROM NORTH CAROLINA AND INTO WEST-CENTRAL VIRGINIA AND  
NORTHERN WEST VIRGINIA AND PORTIONS OF THE MID-ATLANTIC.  
FURTHERMORE, HEAVY RAIN WILL LIKELY DEVELOP ACROSS THE NORTHEAST  
AHEAD OF THE CENTER OF FLORENCE. BY TUESDAY, THE HEAVIEST RAINFALL  
IS EXPECTED FOR SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND.  
 
THE RAINFALL THAT WILL IMPACT THE CAROLINAS TODAY IS EXPECTED TO  
BRING CATASTROPHIC FLASH FLOODING. ADDITIONALLY, SIGNIFICANT RIVER  
FLOODING WILL CONTINUE ACROSS THE CAROLINAS IN ADDITION THE THE  
SOUTHERN AND CENTRAL APPALACHIANS. AS THE HEAVY RAINFALL SHIFTS  
WESTWARD INTO THE MOUNTAINS, LANDSLIDES WILL BECOME A HAZARD FOR  
THOSE REGIONS. A HIGH RISK OF FLASH FLOODING WILL BE POSSIBLE  
TODAY FOR NORTHERN SOUTH CAROLINA, WEST AND CENTRAL NORTH CAROLINA  
AND INTO WESTERN VIRGINIA. BY MONDAY, A MODERATE RISK WILL BE  
POSSIBLE FOR THE CENTRAL APPALACHIANS IN VIRGINIA, MARYLAND AND  
WEST VIRGINIA. TORNADOES EMBEDDED IN THE RAIN BANDS WILL ALSO BE A  
HAZARD ON SUNDAY FOR NORTHEAST SOUTH CAROLINA/SOUTHEAST NORTH  
CAROLINA WHERE THE STORM PREDICTION CENTER HAS ISSUED A SLIGHT  
RISK.  
 
THE HEAVY RAIN ACROSS SOUTH AND WEST TEXAS WILL WIND DOWN  
TODAY--WITH LINGERING SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS IN THESE REGIONS.  
A MARGINAL RISK OF FLASH FLOODING WILL BE POSSIBLE. ELSEWHERE, THE  
PACIFIC NORTHWEST WILL EXPERIENCE RAIN ACROSS ITS REGION TODAY AS  
A MID-LEVEL TROUGH DIGS ACROSS THE REGION AND BRINGS A SURFACE  
COLD FRONT. BECAUSE OF THIS TROUGH, COOLER TEMPERATURES WILL BE  
EXPERIENCED ACROSS THE WEST COAST AND INTO THE INTERMOUNTAIN WEST  
THROUGH THE SHORT TERM PERIOD. AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT MOVING ACROSS  
THE PLAINS AND UPPER MIDWEST, HIGH TEMPERATURES IN THE LOW 90S,  
WHICH IS 20 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL, WILL BE POSSIBLE TODAY.  
 
REINHART  
 
GRAPHICS AVAILABLE AT  
WWW.WPC.NCEP.NOAA.GOV/BASICWX/BASICWX_NDFD.PHP  

 
 
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