878  
FXUS01 KWBC 160814  
PMDSPD  
 
SHORT RANGE FORECAST DISCUSSION  
NWS WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD  
414 AM EDT SUN SEP 16 2018  
 
VALID 12Z SUN SEP 16 2018 - 12Z TUE SEP 18 2018  
 
...CATASTROPHIC FLASH FLOODING, PROLONGED SIGNIFICANT RIVER  
FLOODING, AND ELEVATED RISK OF LANDSLIDES EXPECTED IN WESTERN  
NORTH CAROLINA AND SOUTHWESTERN VIRGINIA...  
 
...MODERATE TO HEAVY RAINFALL WILL IMPACT PORTIONS OF THE  
NORTHEAST...  
 
FOR THE MOST RECENT INFORMATION REGARDING THE TRACK AND INTENSITY  
OF TROPICAL STORM FLORENCE, VISIT WWW.HURRICANES.GOV. FOR ALL  
INFORMATION ON THE RAINFALL ASSOCIATED WITH FLORENCE AND THE  
EXCESSIVE RAINFALL OUTLOOKS, VISIT WWW.WPC.NCEP.NOAA.GOV  
 
TROPICAL STORM FLORENCE WILL WEAKEN AS IT CONTINUES A WESTERLY  
PATH TOWARD THE APPALACHIANS IN THE CAROLINAS. BY LATE SUNDAY  
NIGHT AND INTO EARLY MONDAY MORNING, THE CENTER OF FLORENCE WILL  
TURN NORTH AND MOVE OVER THE SOUTHERN AND CENTRAL  
APPALACHIANS--MAKING IT TO THE NORTHERN MID-ATLANTIC BY TUESDAY  
MORNING. THE AXIS OF HEAVY RAINFALL IS EXPECTED TO OCCUR ACROSS  
NORTHERN SOUTH CAROLINA, MOST OF NORTH CAROLINA--WITH THE  
EXCEPTION OF NORTHEASTERN PORTIONS OF THE STATE, AND INTO  
SOUTHWESTERN VIRGINIA. ON MONDAY, AS FLORENCE TRAVELS NORTHWARD,  
THE HEAVY RAINFALL WILL ALSO SHIFT NORTHWARD AWAY FROM NORTH  
CAROLINA AND INTO WEST-CENTRAL VIRGINIA AND NORTHERN WEST VIRGINIA  
AND PORTIONS OF THE MID-ATLANTIC. FURTHERMORE, HEAVY RAIN WILL  
LIKELY DEVELOP ACROSS THE NORTHEAST AHEAD OF THE CENTER OF  
FLORENCE. BY TUESDAY, THE HEAVIEST RAINFALL IS EXPECTED FOR  
SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND.  
 
THE RAINFALL THAT WILL IMPACT THE CAROLINAS TODAY IS EXPECTED TO  
BRING CATASTROPHIC FLASH FLOODING. ADDITIONALLY, SIGNIFICANT RIVER  
FLOODING WILL CONTINUE ACROSS THE CAROLINAS IN ADDITION THE THE  
SOUTHERN AND CENTRAL APPALACHIANS. AS THE HEAVY RAINFALL SHIFTS  
WESTWARD INTO THE MOUNTAINS TODAY, LANDSLIDES WILL BECOME A HAZARD  
FOR THOSE REGIONS. A HIGH RISK OF FLASH FLOODING WILL BE POSSIBLE  
TODAY FOR NORTHERN SOUTH CAROLINA, WEST AND CENTRAL NORTH CAROLINA  
AND INTO WESTERN VIRGINIA. BY MONDAY, A MODERATE RISK WILL BE  
POSSIBLE FOR THE CENTRAL APPALACHIANS IN VIRGINIA, MARYLAND AND  
WEST VIRGINIA. TORNADOES EMBEDDED IN THE RAIN BANDS WILL ALSO BE A  
HAZARD ON SUNDAY FOR NORTHEAST SOUTH CAROLINA/SOUTHEAST NORTH  
CAROLINA WHERE THE STORM PREDICTION CENTER HAS ISSUED A SLIGHT  
RISK.  
 
THE HEAVY RAIN ACROSS SOUTH AND WEST TEXAS WILL WIND DOWN  
TODAY--WITH LINGERING SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS IN THESE REGIONS.  
A MARGINAL RISK OF FLASH FLOODING WILL BE POSSIBLE. ELSEWHERE, THE  
PACIFIC NORTHWEST WILL EXPERIENCE RAIN ACROSS ITS REGION TODAY AS  
A MID-LEVEL TROUGH DIGS ACROSS THE REGION AND BRINGS A SURFACE  
COLD FRONT. BECAUSE OF THIS TROUGH, COOLER TEMPERATURES WILL BE  
EXPERIENCED ACROSS THE WEST COAST AND INTO THE INTERMOUNTAIN WEST  
THROUGH THE SHORT TERM PERIOD. AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT MOVING ACROSS  
THE PLAINS AND UPPER MIDWEST, HIGH TEMPERATURES IN THE LOW 90S,  
WHICH IS 20 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL, WILL BE POSSIBLE TODAY.  
 
REINHART  
 
GRAPHICS AVAILABLE AT  
WWW.WPC.NCEP.NOAA.GOV/BASICWX/BASICWX_NDFD.PHP  

 
 
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