803  
FXUS01 KWBC 170802  
PMDSPD  
 
SHORT RANGE FORECAST DISCUSSION  
NWS WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD  
402 AM EDT MON SEP 17 2018  
 
VALID 12Z MON SEP 17 2018 - 12Z WED SEP 19 2018  
 
...THE THREAT OF FLASH FLOODING WILL SHIFT TO THE CENTRAL  
APPALACHIANS, MID-ATLANTIC AND NORTHEAST TODAY...  
 
...SIGNIFICANT RIVER FLOODING WILL CONTINUE ACROSS NORTH  
CAROLINA...  
 
AS FLORENCE CONTINUES TO WEAKEN, IT WILL MOVE NORTH TODAY TOWARD  
THE MID-ATLANTIC TODAY. MODERATE TO RAINFALL IS EXPECTED TO  
DEVELOP ACROSS THE PORTIONS OF THE NORTHERN MID-ATLANTIC AND  
NORTHEAST TODAY. HOWEVER, ONGOING HEAVY RAINFALL ACROSS THE  
MOUNTAINS IN VIRGINIA AND WEST VIRGINIA COULD LEAD TO FLASH  
FLOODING. LANDSLIDES WILL ALSO CONTINUE TO BE A HAZARD FOR THE  
CENTRAL APPALACHIANS. ADDITIONALLY, MODERATE RAINFALL WILL ALSO  
LINGER ACROSS CENTRAL AND WESTERN NORTH CAROLINA. CONSEQUENTLY,  
THE CENTRAL APPALACHIANS NORTHWARD INTO THE NORTHERN MID-ATLANTIC  
AND NORTHEAST ARE UNDER A MODERATE RISK OF FLASH FLOODING WITH A  
SLIGHT RISK OF FLASH FLOODING FOR PORTIONS OF WESTERN AND CENTRAL  
NORTH CAROLINA. A MARGINAL RISK FOR TORNADOES WILL ALSO BE  
POSSIBLE FOR THE CENTRAL APPALACHIANS AND PORTIONS OF THE WESTERN  
MID-ATLANTIC. SIGNIFICANT RIVER FLOODING IS STILL ONGOING ACROSS  
PARTS OF CENTRAL AND EASTERN NORTH CAROLINA.  
 
BY TUESDAY, THE HEAVY RAIN ALONG WITH THE REMNANTS OF FLORENCE  
WILL SPREAD FROM THE NORTHEAST TO COASTAL NEW ENGLAND. SOME OF  
THIS PRECIPITATION COULD PRODUCE FLASH FLOODING; THUS, A SLIGHT  
RISK OF EXCESSIVE RAINFALL HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR PORTIONS OF NEW  
ENGLAND. BY WEDNESDAY, ALL PRECIPITATION WILL FINALLY EXIT OFF THE  
EAST COAST.  
 
FARTHER WEST, A SLOW MOVING FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL PROVIDE FOCUS  
FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO DEVELOP ACROSS THE NORTHERN  
PLAINS ON MONDAY AFTERNOON AND WILL MOVE INTO THE UPPER MIDWEST  
LATE MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY. THE BOUNDARY IS EXPECTED TO STALL,  
AND THESE STORMS WILL ALSO LINGER THROUGH WEDNESDAY ACROSS THE  
NORTHERN PLAINS AND UPPER MIDWEST. A SLIGHT RISK OF FLASH FLOODING  
WILL BE POSSIBLE FOR PARTS OF THESE REGIONS THROUGH THE SHORT TERM  
PERIOD ALONG WITH A MARGINAL RISK FOR SEVERE WEATHER TODAY AND  
TUESDAY.  
 
REINHART  
 
FOR ALL INFORMATION ON THE RAINFALL ASSOCIATED WITH FLORENCE AND  
THE EXCESSIVE RAINFALL OUTLOOKS, VISIT WWW.WPC.NCEP.NOAA.GOV  
 
GRAPHICS AVAILABLE AT  
WWW.WPC.NCEP.NOAA.GOV/BASICWX/BASICWX_NDFD.PHP  

 
 
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