081  
FXUS01 KWBC 171854  
PMDSPD  
 
SHORT RANGE FORECAST DISCUSSION  
NWS WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD  
253 PM EDT MON SEP 17 2018  
 
VALID 00Z TUE SEP 18 2018 - 00Z THU SEP 20 2018  
 
...RAIN WILL CONTINUE TO WIND DOWN ACROSS THE CAROLINAS THIS  
EVENING...BUT MAJOR RIVER FLOODING WILL PERSIST THROUGH THE WEEK...  
 
...THE FOCUS FOR HEAVY RAINS ASSOCIATED WITH REMNANTS OF FLORENCE  
SHIFT INTO THE NORTHERN MID-ATLANTIC AND PORTIONS OF NEW ENGLAND  
TONIGHT INTO TUESDAY...  
 
...HEAVY RAINS AND FLASH FLOODING POSSIBLE THE NEXT THREE DAYS  
OVER PORTIONS OF THE NORTHERN PLAINS...UPPER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY  
AND INTO THE UPPER GREAT LAKES REGION...  
 
...MONSOONAL MOISTURE WILL PUSH BACK INTO THE SOUTHWEST THIS  
WEEK...  
 
THIS HISTORIC RAINFALL ASSOCIATED WITH FLORENCE WILL CONTINUE TO  
WIND DOWN THIS EVENING ACROSS THE CAROLINA WITH CONTINUED  
LESSENING OF AREAL COVERAGE OF PRECIPITATION AS FLORENCE MOVES  
NORTHEAST FROM THE UPPER OHIO VALLEY REGION INTO THE NORTHERN  
MID-ATLANTIC TONIGHT AND OFF THE SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND COAST  
TUESDAY EVENING. IN ITS WAKE...MAJOR FLOODING WILL PERSIST  
THROUGH THE WEEK ACROSS LARGE PORTIONS OF NORTH CAROLINA AND  
NORTHEAST SOUTH CAROLINA. THE EMPHASIS FOR HEAVY TO POSSIBLY  
EXCESSIVE RAINFALL WITH THE REMNANTS OF FLORENCE WILL SHIFT TO THE  
NORTHERN MID-ATLANTIC INTO PORTIONS OF NEW ENGLAND THIS EVENING  
INTO TUESDAY.  
 
WHILE THE HEAVY RAINS WILL BE WINDING DOWN OVER THE EAST  
ASSOCIATED WITH FLORENCE...SEVERAL DAYS OF POTENTIALLY HEAVY TO  
LOCALLY EXCESSIVE RAINFALL WILL BEGIN ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE  
NORTHERN PLAINS...UPPER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY AND INTO THE UPPER  
GREAT LAKES REGIONS. A GENERALLY WEST TO EAST ORIENTED FRONTAL  
BOUNDARY WILL PERSIST OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS FROM THE CENTRAL  
PLAINS INTO THE UPPER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY. PERSISTENT INFLOW OF  
ANOMALOUS MOISTURE INTO THIS FRONTAL ZONE WILL SUPPORT SEVERAL  
WAVES OF ORGANIZED THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY...SUPPORTING HEAVY TO  
LOCALLY EXCESSIVE RAINFALL AMOUNTS FROM EASTERN SOUTH  
DAKOTA...ACROSS MUCH OF IOWA...SOUTHERN MINNESOTA...WISCONSIN INTO  
THE U.P. OF MICHIGAN THE NORTHERN PORTIONS OF THE L.P. OF MICHIGAN.  
 
ABOVE AVERAGE MOISTURE VALUES WILL ALSO BE PUSHING NORTHWARD EARLY  
THIS WEEK ACROSS NORTHWEST MEXICO AND INTO THE SOUTHWEST AHEAD OF  
A MID TO UPPER LEVEL TROF PUSHING SOUTHEAST ACROSS CALIFORNIA.  
THIS WILL SUPPORT THE RETURN OF MONSOONAL CONVECTION FOR PORTIONS  
OF THE SOUTHWEST WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY FROM CENTRAL TO SOUTHERN  
ARIZONA..MUCH OF NEW MEXICO AND INTO SOUTHWEST TEXAS. IN ADDITION  
TO LOCALLY HEAVY RAINS...ISOLATED FLASH FLOODING WILL ALSO BE  
POSSIBLE.  
 
ORAVEC  
 
FOR ALL INFORMATION ON THE RAINFALL ASSOCIATED WITH FLORENCE AND  
THE EXCESSIVE RAINFALL OUTLOOKS, VISIT WWW.WPC.NCEP.NOAA.GOV  
 
GRAPHICS AVAILABLE AT  
WWW.WPC.NCEP.NOAA.GOV/BASICWX/BASICWX_NDFD.PHP  

 
 
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