629  
FXUS01 KWBC 190719  
PMDSPD  
 
SHORT RANGE FORECAST DISCUSSION  
NWS WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD  
318 AM EDT WED SEP 19 2018  
 
VALID 12Z WED SEP 19 2018 - 12Z FRI SEP 21 2018  
 
...HEAVY RAIN FOR PARTS OF THE SOUTHWEST U.S. AND THE UPPER  
MIDWEST WITH ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES CONTINUING FOR THE EASTERN  
HALF OF THE NATION THROUGH THURSDAY...  
 
THE WEATHER PATTERN THROUGH THE MIDDLE TO END OF THE WEEK WILL BE  
FEATURED WITH AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH CROSSING THE WESTERN THIRD OF  
THE U.S. AND A BROAD SUBTROPICAL RIDGE OVER THE CENTRAL AND  
EASTERN U.S. WITH A COUPLE OF FRONTAL BOUNDARIES SITUATED FROM THE  
ROCKIES TO THE OHIO VALLEY. A DEVELOPING SURFACE LOW OVER THE  
CENTRAL PLAINS WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND INTO THURSDAY IS FORECAST TO  
RESULT IN MODERATE TO HEAVY RAINFALL EXTENDING FROM EASTERN SOUTH  
DAKOTA TO THE UPPER PENINSULA OF MICHIGAN THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT.  
THE POTENTIAL EXISTS FOR 2 TO LOCALLY 4 INCHES OF RAINFALL ACROSS  
PARTS OF THIS REGION, AND THIS AREA WILL BE MONITORED FOR THE  
POTENTIAL FOR FLASH FLOODING.  
 
A SECOND AREA AT RISK FOR ENHANCED RAINFALL WILL BE ACROSS  
SOUTHERN ARIZONA AND NEW MEXICO AS DEEP TROPICAL MOISTURE SURGES  
NORTHWARD FROM WESTERN MEXICO IN ASSOCIATION WITH AN AREA OF  
DISTURBED WEATHER, AND THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER IS MONITORING  
THIS FOR POSSIBLE TROPICAL DEVELOPMENT. IN ANY CASE, MONSOON-LIKE  
RAINFALL CAN BE EXPECTED FOR THIS AREA ALONG WITH POSSIBLE  
FLOODING IN FLOOD PRONE AREAS. ELSEWHERE ACROSS THE WESTERN U.S.,  
RAIN IS ALSO LIKELY ACROSS MONTANA ON THURSDAY BEHIND THE COLD  
FRONT, WITH EVEN SOME SNOW POSSIBLE ACROSS THE HIGHEST ELEVATIONS  
OF THE NORTHERN ROCKIES. DRY AND BREEZY CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED  
FOR UTAH AND INTO SOUTHERN WYOMING WITH AN ELEVATED WILDFIRE  
POTENTIAL.  
 
TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO BE ON THE ORDER OF 5 TO 15 DEGREES  
ABOVE NORMAL FROM THE MIDWEST TO THE OHIO VALLEY AND EXTENDING  
SOUTH TO THE GULF COAST, WITH HIGHS WELL INTO THE 80S AND EVEN  
LOWER 90S. MUCH COOLER CONDITIONS SHOULD RESIDE NORTHWEST OF THE  
FRONT FROM MONTANA TO MINNESOTA WITH HIGHS IN THE UPPER 40S TO  
NEAR 60 DEGREES, AND THIS IS 10 TO 20 DEGREES BELOW MID-SEPTEMBER  
AVERAGES.  
 
D. HAMRICK  
 
GRAPHICS AVAILABLE AT  
WWW.WPC.NCEP.NOAA.GOV/BASICWX/BASICWX_NDFD.PHP  

 
 
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