598  
FXUS01 KWBC 220804  
PMDSPD  
 
SHORT RANGE FORECAST DISCUSSION  
NWS WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD  
403 AM EDT SAT SEP 22 2018  
 
VALID 12Z SAT SEP 22 2018 - 12Z MON SEP 24 2018  
 
...HEAVY TO EXCESSIVE RAINFALL SHIFTS FROM EASTERN TEXAS/OKLAHOMA  
TO THE LOWER OHIO VALLEY THIS WEEKEND...  
 
...ELEVATED TO CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES ACROSS THE  
CENTRAL GREAT BASIN AND CENTRAL ROCKIES...  
 
THE HEAVY RAINFALL AND FLASH FLOOD THREAT OVERNIGHT ACROSS TEXAS  
AND OKLAHOMA WILL SHIFT SLOWLY SOUTH AND EASTWARD INTO THE LOWER  
MISSISSIPPI AND OHIO VALLEYS THIS WEEKEND AS ABOVE NORMAL MOISTURE  
STREAMING NORTHWARD INTO THIS REGION INTERACTS WITH A NEARLY  
STATIONARY FRONTAL BOUNDARY. AREAL AVERAGED RAIN AMOUNTS ON THE  
ORDER OF 1 TO 3 INCHES, WITH LOCALLY HIGHER AMOUNTS, IS FORECAST  
TODAY AND ON SUNDAY FROM EASTERN TEXAS TO THE TENNESSEE AND LOWER  
OHIO VALLEY. GIVEN SIGNIFICANT RAINFALL ALREADY IMPACTING PARTS OF  
TEXAS/OKLAHOMA/ARKANSAS, MUCH OF THIS AREA WAS PLACED WITHIN A  
MODERATE RISK FOR FLASH FLOODING/EXCESSIVE RAINFALL TODAY. FROM  
EASTERN TEXAS TO THE LOWER OHIO VALLEY, A SLIGHT RISK IS IN EFFECT  
THROUGH THE WEEKEND. EXPECT SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO REACH  
PORTIONS OF THE MID-ATLANTIC BY SUNDAY, WHILE ON THE BACKSIDE OF  
THIS BOUNDARY, CONDITIONS ARE RATHER CHILLY, WITH AFTERNOON HIGH  
TEMPERATURES FORECAST TO BE AS MUCH AS 5 TO 10 DEGREES BELOW  
NORMAL FOR THIS TIME OF THE YEAR FROM THE SOUTHERN PLAINS TO THE  
MID-ATLANTIC.  
 
ELEVATED TO CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS CONTINUE ACROSS MUCH OF  
THE CENTRAL GREAT BASIN AND PORTIONS OF THE CENTRAL ROCKIES WHERE  
WARM AND DRY CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST THROUGH THE WEEKEND  
UNDERNEATH OF UPPER LEVEL RIDGING. AFTERNOON HIGH TEMPERATURES  
COULD BE AS MUCH AS 10 TO 15 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL WITH NUMEROUS  
RED FLAG WARNINGS IN EFFECT ACROSS PORTIONS OF NEVADA AND IDAHO,  
AS WELL AS MUCH OF SOUTHERN WYOMING. SEE PRODUCTS ISSUED BY THE  
STORM PREDICTION CENTER AND THE LOCAL FORECAST OFFICES FOR  
ADDITIONAL INFORMATION.  
 
ELSEWHERE ACROSS THE COUNTRY, AN UPPER LEVEL SYSTEM MOVING INTO  
THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST TODAY MAY BRING SOME LIGHT AND SCATTERED  
SHOWERS TO WESTERN WASHINGTON AND OREGON, WHILE THE REMAINDER OF  
THE INTERIOR NORTHWEST REMAINS DRY. ONCE THIS SYSTEM PUSHES INTO  
THE PLAINS BY LATE WEEKEND/EARLY MONDAY, IT SHOULD TAP INTO  
ADDITIONAL MOISTURE INCREASING THE THREAT FOR RAINFALL ALONG A  
FRONTAL BOUNDARY SETTING UP IN THE NORTHERN PLAINS BY THE END OF  
THE SHORT RANGE PERIOD. DOWN ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST AND FLORIDA,  
EXPECT MAINLY SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ALL WEEKEND  
WITHIN A WARM AND HUMID AIRMASS.  
 
SANTORELLI  
 
GRAPHICS AVAILABLE AT  
WWW.WPC.NCEP.NOAA.GOV/BASICWX/BASICWX_NDFD.PHP  

 
 
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