314  
FXUS01 KWBC 222003  
PMDSPD  
 
SHORT RANGE FORECAST DISCUSSION  
NWS WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD  
403 PM EDT SAT SEP 22 2018  
 
VALID 00Z SUN SEP 23 2018 - 00Z TUE SEP 25 2018  
 
...HEAVY TO EXCESSIVE RAINFALL SHIFTS FROM EASTERN TEXAS/OKLAHOMA  
TO THE LOWER OHIO VALLEY THIS WEEKEND...  
 
...ELEVATED TO CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES ACROSS THE  
CENTRAL GREAT BASIN AND CENTRAL ROCKIES...  
   
..EARLY SEASON COLD SNAP FOR NEW ENGLAND
 
 
NOTICEABLY COOLER AIR IS FORECAST FOR MUCH OF THE NORTHERN-TIER  
STATES THIS WEEKEND. TEMPERATURES WILL DROP TO NEAR OR BELOW  
FREEZING ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE NORTHEAST, WITH A HANDFUL OF  
COUNTIES WITH FROST ADVISORIES AND FREEZE WARNINGS. SHOWERS AND  
THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO PASS THROUGH THE NORTHERN PLAINS,  
UPPER MIDWEST AND GREAT LAKES REGION ALONG A SLOW MOVING FRONTAL  
BOUNDARY. ACCUMULATIONS WILL GENERALLY BE LIGHT WITH A FEW  
ISOLATED AREAS UP TO 1 INCH OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS.  
 
SCATTERED SHOWERS WILL MOVE THROUGH THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST AND  
INTERMOUNTAIN REGION AS A COLD FRONT TRACKS EASTWARD. GUSTY WINDS,  
COMBINED WITH THE WARMER AND DRIER AIRMASS IN PLACE OVER THE GREAT  
BASIN AND CENTRAL ROCKIES, WILL INCREASE THE RISK FOR WILDFIRES.  
WITH PERSISTENT TEMPERATURES OF 10 TO 15 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL, RED  
FLAG WARNINGS ARE IN EFFECT FROM NEVADA/IDAHO TO WESTERN SOUTH  
DAKOTA. ONCE THIS SYSTEM PUSHES INTO THE PLAINS BY LATE  
WEEKEND/EARLY MONDAY, IT SHOULD TAP INTO ADDITIONAL MOISTURE  
INCREASING THE THREAT FOR RAINFALL ALONG A FRONTAL BOUNDARY  
SETTING UP IN THE NORTHERN PLAINS BY THE END OF THE SHORT RANGE  
PERIOD.  
 
RISKS FOR HEAVY RAIN AND AREAL FLOODING WILL CONTINUE ACROSS THE  
SOUTH-CENTRAL U.S. DEEP MOISTURE STREAMING NORTHWARD ALONG A  
QUASI-STATIONARY SPANNING FROM TEXAS TO THE MID-ATLANTIC REGION  
WILL GENERATE MULTIPLE ROUNDS OF RAIN AND THUNDERSTORMS. AREAL  
AVERAGED RAIN AMOUNTS ON THE ORDER OF 1 TO 3 INCHES, WITH LOCALLY  
HIGHER AMOUNTS, IS FORECAST THROUGH SUNDAY FROM EASTERN TEXAS TO  
THE TENNESSEE AND LOWER OHIO VALLEY. MUCH OF THIS AREA WAS PLACED  
WITHIN A SLIGHT RISK FOR FLASH FLOODING/EXCESSIVE RAINFALL. DOWN  
ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST AND FLORIDA, EXPECT MAINLY SCATTERED SHOWERS  
AND THUNDERSTORMS ALL WEEKEND WITHIN A WARM AND HUMID AIRMASS.  
 
CAMPBELL  
 
GRAPHICS AVAILABLE AT  
WWW.WPC.NCEP.NOAA.GOV/BASICWX/BASICWX_NDFD.PHP  

 
 
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