218  
FXUS01 KWBC 240806  
PMDSPD  
 
SHORT RANGE FORECAST DISCUSSION  
NWS WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD  
405 AM EDT MON SEP 24 2018  
 
VALID 12Z MON SEP 24 2018 - 12Z WED SEP 26 2018  
 
...HEAVY TO EXCESSIVE RAINFALL POSSIBLE FOR PARTS OF THE TENNESSEE  
AND OHIO VALLEYS AND THE NORTHEAST...  
 
...ELEVATED TO CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES ON MONDAY  
ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE CENTRAL GREAT BASIN, CENTRAL ROCKIES, AND  
NORTHERN CALIFORNIA...  
 
...SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE ON TUESDAY ACROSS THE OHIO  
VALLEY...  
 
THE HEAVY RAINFALL THREAT CONTINUES AS WE BEGIN THE WORK WEEK FROM  
PORTIONS OF THE TENNESSEE VALLEY INTO THE OHIO VALLEY AS PLENTY OF  
MOISTURE OVERRIDES A REMNANT SURFACE BOUNDARY DRAPED ACROSS THE  
MID-SOUTH AND A COLD FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE WEST. THE LATEST  
WPC EXCESSIVE RAINFALL/FLASH FLOOD OUTLOOKS PLACE MUCH OF THIS  
REGION WITHIN A SLIGHT TO MODERATE RISK FOR MONDAY, AND A SLIGHT  
RISK ON TUESDAY. HEAVY RAINFALL IS ALSO POSSIBLE ACROSS PORTIONS  
OF THE MID-ATLANTIC/NORTHEAST MONDAY AND INTO TUESDAY AS A WEDGE  
OF SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE ERODES AND ALLOWS FOR WARM AND MOIST AIR  
FROM THE SOUTH TO SEEP INTO THE REGION. EXPECT SCATTERED SHOWERS  
AND THUNDERSTORMS TO ALSO CONTINUE THIS WEEK ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST  
WITHIN AN ALREADY WARM AND HUMID AIRMASS WITH MODERATE TO LOCALLY  
HEAVY RAINFALL POSSIBLE FOR THE COASTAL CAROLINAS BY TUESDAY  
AFTERNOON AS A WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE MOVES NORTHWARD NEAR THE  
COASTLINE.  
 
AN ELEVATED TO CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER THREAT WILL CONTINUE TODAY  
(MONDAY) ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE CENTRAL GREAT BASIN, THE CENTRAL  
ROCKIES, AND NORTHERN CALIFORNIA WHERE TEMPERATURES ARE ABOVE  
NORMAL AND HUMIDITY LEVELS REMAIN LOW. RED FLAG WARNINGS ARE IN  
EFFECT FOR PARTS OF NORTHEAST UTAH, SOUTHERN WYOMING, AND  
NORTHWEST COLORADO, AS WELL AS INLAND NORTHERN CALIFORNIA.  
CONDITIONS ACROSS THE GREAT BASIN/ROCKIES SHOULD IMPROVE BY  
TUESDAY, BUT AN ELEVATED RISK REMAINS FOR TUESDAY IN NORTHERN  
CALIFORNIA.  
 
EXPECT SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO DEVELOP ALONG A COLD FRONT AS  
IT PUSHES EAST FROM THE PLAINS INTO THE UPPER MIDWEST TODAY.  
LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN IS POSSIBLE, PARTICULARLY ACROSS THE UPPER  
MISSISSIPPI VALLEY NEAR A SURFACE LOW DRIFTING NORTHEASTWARD ALONG  
THE BOUNDARY. SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ARE ALSO POSSIBLE ACROSS THE  
OHIO VALLEY ON TUESDAY AHEAD OF THIS FRONT, AND THE STORM  
PREDICTION CENTER HAS HIGHLIGHTED MUCH OF THIS REGION WITHIN A  
SLIGHT RISK.  
 
SANTORELLI  
 
GRAPHICS AVAILABLE AT  
WWW.WPC.NCEP.NOAA.GOV/BASICWX/BASICWX_NDFD.PHP  

 
 
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