616  
FXUS01 KWBC 290800  
PMDSPD  
 
SHORT RANGE FORECAST DISCUSSION  
NWS WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD  
400 AM EDT SAT SEP 29 2018  
 
VALID 12Z SAT SEP 29 2018 - 12Z MON OCT 01 2018  
 
...HURRICANE ROSA IN THE EASTERN PACIFIC IS EXPECTED TO BECOME A  
HEAVY RAIN THREAT TO THE DESERT SOUTHWEST BY MONDAY...  
 
...A COOL AIR MASS FROM CANADA WILL PROVIDE MUCH BELOW NORMAL  
TEMPERATURES FROM THE NORTHERN ROCKIES INTO THE UPPER MIDWEST...  
 
...SNOW OVER THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS OF THE NORTHERN ROCKIES  
EXPECTED TO SPREAD EAST ALONG THE NORTHERN BORDER OF NORTH  
DAKOTA...  
 
HURRICANE ROSA, CURRENTLY IN THE EASTERN PACIFIC TO THE SOUTHWEST  
OF BAJA CALIFORNIA, IS EXPECTED TO TAKE THE CENTER STAGE AS A  
HEAVY RAIN PRODUCER FOR THE DESERT SOUTHWEST BY EARLY NEXT WEEK.  
ROSA IS IN THE PROCESS OF RECURVING INTO THE MID-LATITUDES AHEAD  
OF A DEVELOPING UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH/CUT-OFF LOW PATTERN. THE  
CURRENT FORECAST TRACK FROM THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER  
INDICATES THAT ROSA WILL APPROACH THE NORTHERN PORTION OF BAJA  
CALIFORNIA ON MONDAY AS A TROPICAL STORM. ALTHOUGH THE WINDS  
ASSOCIATED WITH ROSA ARE EXPECTED TO WEAKEN, COPIOUS AMOUNTS OF  
TROPICAL MOISTURE WILL BE DRAWN NORTHWARD TOWARD THE DESERT  
SOUTHWEST STARTING ON MONDAY. IN ADDITION, A DEVELOPING FRONT  
WILL HELP FOCUS THE HEAVY RAIN ALONG AN AXIS FROM CENTRAL ARIZONA  
NORTHWARD. RESIDENTS IN THE DESERT SOUTHWEST SHOULD KEEP ABREAST  
OF THE LATEST WATCHES AND WARNINGS ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL WEATHER  
SERVICE AS ROSA APPROACHES EARLY NEXT WEEK.  
 
ELSEWHERE ACROSS THE COUNTRY, A COOL AIR MASS FROM CANADA WILL  
CONTINUE TO PROVIDE MUCH BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES ACROSS THE  
NORTHERN ROCKIES INTO THE NORTHERN PLAINS. A ZONAL UPPER-LEVEL  
PATTERN MEANS THAT THE COOL AIR MASS WILL SPREAD EASTWARD TOWARD  
THE GREAT LAKES THROUGH THE WEEKEND INTO MONDAY. HIGHER ELEVATION  
SNOWS AIDED BY UPSLOPE FLOW OVER THE NORTHERN ROCKIES WILL  
LIKEWISE SPREAD EASTWARD ALONG THE NORTHERN BORDER OF NORTH DAKOTA  
ON MONDAY. RAIN WILL BE THE PRIMARY PRECIPITATION TYPE FARTHER  
SOUTH ACROSS THE NORTHERN PLAINS ON MONDAY TO THE NORTH OF A COLD  
FRONT.  
 
LINGERING SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS CAN BE EXPECTED FOR THE GULF  
COAST AS A RESULT OF A QUASI-STATIONARY FRONT. THE RAIN SHOULD  
SLOWLY BECOME MORE SCATTERED IN NATURE DURING THE NEXT FEW DAYS AS  
THE FRONT GRADUALLY DISSIPATES, ALTHOUGH DAY-TIME HEATING WILL  
TEND TO REINVIGORATE SHOWERS IN THE AFTERNOON INTO EARLY EVENING.  
 
MEANWHILE, WEATHER ACROSS THE MID-ATLANTIC SHOULD REMAIN FINE FOR  
THE NEXT FEW DAYS. NEW ENGLAND WILL BEGIN TO SEE MOISTURE  
ARRIVING FROM THE WEST ON MONDAY AS A STATIONARY FRONT BEGINS TO  
FORM IN THE VICINITY OF THE LOWER GREAT LAKES.  
 
KONG  
 
GRAPHICS AVAILABLE AT  
WWW.WPC.NCEP.NOAA.GOV/BASICWX/BASICWX_NDFD.PHP  

 
 
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