027  
FXUS01 KWBC 010744  
PMDSPD  
 
SHORT RANGE FORECAST DISCUSSION  
NWS WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD  
343 AM EDT MON OCT 1 2018  
 
VALID 12Z MON OCT 1 2018 - 12Z WED OCT 3 2018  
 
...HEAVY RAIN FOR THE DESERT SOUTHWEST AND THE GREAT LAKES  
REGION...  
 
HEAVY RAINFALL HAS MADE A RETURN TO MUCH OF ARIZONA AND  
SOUTHEASTERN CALIFORNIA AS TROPICAL STORM ROSA TRACKS TOWARDS THE  
NORTHEAST, AND IT IS FORECAST TO MAKE LANDFALL ON THE NORTHERN  
BAJA CALIFORNIA COAST MONDAY EVENING. THERE WILL BE ENOUGH DEEP  
LAYER MOISTURE TO SUPPORT WIDESPREAD 1 TO 3 INCH RAINFALL AMOUNTS  
THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT, WITH SOME ADDITIONAL SHOWERS AND  
THUNDERSTORMS LIKELY FALLING THEREAFTER. THIS MOISTURE WILL  
CONTINUE SPREADING INLAND ACROSS EASTERN NEVADA, UTAH, AND WESTERN  
PORTIONS OF COLORADO AND NEW MEXICO. FLASH FLOOD WATCHES ARE  
CURRENTLY IN AFFECT FOR MANY OF THOSE AREAS, AND THE WEATHER  
PREDICTION CENTER CURRENTLY HAS A MODERATE RISK OF EXCESSIVE  
RAINFALL FOR PARTS OF ARIZONA WHERE THE THREAT OF FLASH FLOODING  
IS GREATER.  
 
ANOTHER AREA THAT WILL LIKELY GET SIGNIFICANT RAINFALL OVER THE  
NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS WILL BE FROM IOWA TO MICHIGAN AND THEN  
EXTENDING EASTWARD TO NORTHERN NEW ENGLAND THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT.  
RAINFALL TOTALS OF 1 TO 2 INCHES, LOCALLY HIGHER, ARE EXPECTED  
WITHIN THIS CORRIDOR, AND A SLIGHT RISK FOR EXCESSIVE RAINFALL  
EXISTS FOR PARTS OF THIS REGION. THIS IS ASSOCIATED WITH A  
SURFACE LOW TRACKING EASTWARD ALONG A NEARLY STATIONARY FRONTAL  
BOUNDARY.  
 
FARTHER WEST ACROSS THE NORTHERN ROCKIES AND NORTHERN PLAINS, THE  
WESTERN PORTION OF THIS SAME BOUNDARY IS EXPECTED TO RESULT IN  
SOME LIGHT RAIN ACROSS THE DAKOTAS AND HIGH ELEVATION SNOW ACROSS  
NORTHWESTERN MONTANA NEAR THE CANADIAN BORDER. ADDITIONAL  
RAINFALL IS LIKELY OVER WESTERN WASHINGTON STATE ON MONDAY AS A  
PLUME OF PACIFIC MOISTURE SURGES INLAND ACROSS THAT REGION AHEAD  
OF A SURFACE LOW.  
 
D. HAMRICK  
 
GRAPHICS AVAILABLE AT  
WWW.WPC.NCEP.NOAA.GOV/BASICWX/BASICWX_NDFD.PHP  

 
 
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