702  
FXUS01 KWBC 011914  
PMDSPD  
 
SHORT RANGE FORECAST DISCUSSION  
NWS WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD  
313 PM EDT MON OCT 01 2018  
 
VALID 00Z TUE OCT 02 2018 - 00Z THU OCT 04 2018  
 
...MOISTURE FROM TROPICAL STORM ROSA WILL BRING HEAVY RAIN AND  
CONCERNS FOR FLASH FLOODING ACROSS THE SOUTHWEST U.S...  
 
...HEAVY RAINFALL AND SOME SEVERE WEATHER IS EXPECTED FOR PORTIONS  
OF THE GREAT LAKES AND THE NORTHEAST...  
 
TROPICAL STORM ROSA WILL BE APPROACHING THE NORTHERN PENINSULA OF  
BAJA CALIFORNIA TONIGHT AND IS EXPECTED TO WEAKEN TO A TROPICAL  
DEPRESSION BY EARLY TUESDAY AS IT LIFTS QUICKLY NORTHEAST AND  
APPROACHES SOUTHWEST ARIZONA. MOISTURE AND ENERGY ASSOCIATED WITH  
ROSA WILL SPREAD WELL INLAND TONIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY ACROSS THE  
DESERT SOUTHWEST AND ALSO THE BROADER FOUR CORNERS REGION  
INCLUDING THE GREAT BASIN, AND THE CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN ROCKIES.  
HEAVY RAINFALL WILL IMPACT MANY OF THESE AREAS AND THERE WILL BE  
LOCALLY SIGNIFICANT CONCERNS FOR FLASH FLOODING. THE HEAVIEST  
RAINFALL AMOUNTS ARE EXPECTED TO BE ACROSS THE MOGOLLON RIM OF  
ARIZONA WHERE STORM TOTALS MAY REACH AS HIGH AS 6 INCHES.  
 
MEANWHILE, IN THE WAKE OF ROSA, THERE WILL BE A RATHER STRONG  
UPPER-LEVEL LOW MOVING TOWARD CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA AND  
THIS WILL BRING COOLER TEMPERATURES AND SOME LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN.  
MUCH OF THE FOCUS WILL BE ON THE COASTAL RANGES, BUT THE UNSETTLED  
WEATHER WILL LINGER THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK ACROSS MUCH OF  
CALIFORNIA. FARTHER NORTH UP ACROSS THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST, THERE  
WILL BE A COLD FRONT DROPPING SOUTH ACROSS THE REGION AND THERE  
WILL BE SOME SHOWER ACTIVITY ASSOCIATED WITH THIS ALONG WITH A  
DROP IN TEMPERATURES. IN FACT, SOME SNOW IS EXPECTED FARTHER EAST  
OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF NORTHWEST MONTANA AS THIS FRONT CROSSES  
THE REGION IN ASSOCIATION WITH AN UPPER TROUGH. THIS SAME FRONT  
WILL BE CROSSING THE NORTHERN PLAINS AND UPPER MIDWEST THROUGH  
WEDNESDAY AND SOME MUCH COLDER TEMPERATURES WILL FILTER SOUTH FROM  
CANADA IN ITS WAKE.  
 
ANOTHER AREA THAT WILL LIKELY GET SOME HEAVY RAINFALL OVER THE  
NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS WILL BE FROM PORTIONS OF SOUTHERN WISCONSIN  
AND NORTHERN ILLINOIS EASTWARD ACROSS MICHIGAN AND OVER TOWARD  
NORTHERN NEW ENGLAND THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT. THIS WILL BE  
ASSOCIATED WITH MULTIPLE WAVES OF LOW PRESSURE ADVANCING EAST  
ALONG A FRONTAL ZONE. THIS ENTIRE SYSTEM THOUGH WILL EXIT NEW  
ENGLAND BY EARLY WEDNESDAY. SOME LOCALIZED RUNOFF PROBLEMS AND  
ISOLATED FLASH FLOODING WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH THIS EVENT, BUT  
THERE WILL ALSO BE CONCERNS FOR SEVERE WEATHER ALONG AND AHEAD OF  
THE FRONT AS IT CROSSES PORTIONS OF THE GREAT LAKES, UPPER OHIO  
VALLEY AND NORTHEAST.  
 
ELSEWHERE, GENERALLY DRY WEATHER CAN BE EXPECTED WITH TEMPERATURES  
NEAR OR A BIT ABOVE NORMAL, AND THIS WILL ESPECIALLY BE THE CASE  
ACROSS THE SOUTHERN TIER OF THE U.S. EAST OF THE ROCKIES. SOME  
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE ALONG THE  
IMMEDIATE GULF COAST AND OVER THE FLORIDA PENINSULA, BUT THE  
REMAINDER OF THE SOUTH SHOULD SEE TRANQUIL WEATHER THROUGH THE  
MIDDLE OF THE WEEK.  
 
ORRISON  
 
GRAPHICS AVAILABLE AT  
WWW.WPC.NCEP.NOAA.GOV/BASICWX/BASICWX_NDFD.PHP  

 
 
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