275  
FXUS01 KWBC 020723  
PMDSPD  
 
SHORT RANGE FORECAST DISCUSSION  
NWS WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD  
322 AM EDT TUE OCT 2 2018  
 
VALID 12Z TUE OCT 2 2018 - 12Z THU OCT 4 2018  
 
...HEAVY RAIN FOR PARTS OF THE SOUTHWEST FROM TROPICAL DEPRESSION  
ROSA, AND ALSO ACROSS THE NORTHEAST U.S. ON TUESDAY...  
 
HEAVY RAINFALL WILL CONTINUE TO MAKE WEATHER HEADLINES ACROSS MUCH  
OF THE DESERT SOUTHWEST ON TUESDAY AS TROPICAL DEPRESSION ROSA  
TRACKS TOWARDS THE NORTHEAST. THERE WILL BE ENOUGH DEEP LAYER  
MOISTURE TO SUPPORT WIDESPREAD 1 TO 3 INCH RAINFALL AMOUNTS  
THROUGH WEDNESDAY MORNING, WITH THE HEAVIEST RAINFALL EXPECTED  
OVER CENTRAL ARIZONA WHERE THERE IS CURRENTLY A MODERATE RISK FOR  
EXCESSIVE RAINFALL. FLASH FLOOD WATCHES ARE CURRENTLY IN EFFECT  
FROM SOUTHEAST CALIFORNIA AND SOUTHERN ARIZONA, AND EXTENDING  
NORTHWARD THROUGH EASTERN NEVADA AND UTAH, AND EVEN INTO SOUTHEAST  
IDAHO.  
 
ANOTHER AREA THAT WILL LIKELY GET SOME HEAVY RAINFALL WILL BE FROM  
SOUTHERN MICHIGAN AND EXTENDING EASTWARD TOWARD NEW ENGLAND  
THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT. THIS WILL BE ASSOCIATED WITH A WAVE OF LOW  
PRESSURE ADVANCING EAST ALONG A FRONTAL ZONE. THIS ENTIRE SYSTEM  
THOUGH IS FORECAST TO EXIT NEW ENGLAND BY EARLY WEDNESDAY. SOME  
LOCALIZED RUNOFF PROBLEMS AND ISOLATED FLASH FLOODING WILL BE  
POSSIBLE WITH THIS EVENT, AND SOME SEVERE WEATHER WILL BE POSSIBLE  
FROM EASTERN OHIO TO SOUTHEAST NEW YORK PER THE LATEST SPC  
CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK.  
 
GENERALLY DRY WEATHER CAN BE EXPECTED WITH TEMPERATURES ABOVE  
NORMAL ACROSS THE SOUTHERN TIER OF THE U.S. FROM TEXAS TO THE  
MID-ATLANTIC REGION. SOME SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS  
WILL BE POSSIBLE ALONG THE IMMEDIATE GULF COAST AND OVER THE  
FLORIDA PENINSULA, BUT THE REMAINDER OF THE SOUTH SHOULD SEE  
TRANQUIL WEATHER THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK.  
 
HAMRICK  
 
GRAPHICS AVAILABLE AT  
WWW.WPC.NCEP.NOAA.GOV/BASICWX/BASICWX_NDFD.PHP  

 
 
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