032  
FXUS01 KWBC 021959  
PMDSPD  
 
SHORT RANGE FORECAST DISCUSSION  
NWS WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD  
358 PM EDT TUE OCT 02 2018  
 
VALID 00Z WED OCT 03 2018 - 00Z FRI OCT 05 2018  
 
...HEAVY RAIN FROM THE REMNANTS OF ROSA TO CONTINUE INTO TONIGHT  
OVER THE SOUTHWEST AND GREAT BASIN...  
 
...A STRONG COLD FRONT WILL BRING BIG TEMPERATURE SWINGS ACROSS  
THE NORTHERN-CENTRAL PLAINS...UPPER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY INTO THE  
GREAT LAKES AND NORTHEAST WEDNESDAY INTO FRIDAY...  
 
...MUCH ABOVE AVERAGE TEMPERATURES WILL PERSIST FROM THE SOUTHERN  
PLAINS INTO THE LOWER TO MID MISSISSIPPI VALLEY...TENNESSEE/OHIO  
VALLEYS..ACROSS MUCH OF THE SOUTH INTO THE SOUTHEAST...  
 
WHILE THE SURFACE CIRCULATION CENTER ASSOCIATED WITH ROSA HAS  
DISSIPATED...THE MUCH ABOVE AVERAGE MOISTURE VALUES THAT HAVE  
STREAMED AHEAD OF ROSA WILL CONTINUE TO PRODUCE HEAVY RAINS AND  
POTENTIAL FLASH FLOODING LATE THIS AFTERNOON INTO TONIGHT ACROSS  
THE SOUTHWEST..SOUTHERN GREAT BASIN INTO THE CENTRAL ROCKIES.  
WHILE THE HEAVY RAIN THREAT FROM THE REMNANTS OF ROSA DECREASE BY  
WEDNESDAY...ADDITIONAL SHOWERS AND LOCALLY HEAVY TO EXCESSIVE  
RAINFALL POSSIBLE AHEAD OF A STRONG MID LATITUDE CLOSED LOW THAT  
WILL BE PUSHING TOWARD SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA WEDNESDAY AND INTO THE  
SOUTHWEST AND GREAT BASIN ON THURSDAY.  
 
AN AMPLIFYING UPPER LEVEL PATTERN FROM THE PACIFIC  
NORTHWEST...EAST NORTHEAST INTO THE NORTHERN PLAINS/UPPER  
MISSISSIPPI VALLEY WILL PROPEL A STRONG COLD FRONT EASTWARD  
WEDNESDAY ACROSS THE NORTHERN PLAINS INTO THE UPPER MISSISSIPPI  
VALLEY AND SOUTH INTO THE CENTRAL TO SOUTHERN PLAINS. THIS STRONG  
FRONT WILL THEN SWEEP THROUGH THE GREAT LAKES INTO NEW ENGLAND  
DURING THURSDAY. BIG TEMPERATURE CHANGES EXPECTED WITH THE  
PASSAGE OF THIS FRONT AS MUCH ABOVE AVERAGE TEMPERATURES WEDNESDAY  
OVER THE NORTHERN AND CENTRAL PLAINS INTO THE UPPER MISSISSIPPI  
VALLEY ARE REPLACED BY MUCH BELOW AVERAGE TEMPERATURES ON THURSDAY  
IN THE WAKE OF THIS FRONT. THIS COOLING TREND WILL THEN PUSH INTO  
NEW ENGLAND AND THE NORTHEAST BY FRIDAY.  
 
TO THE SOUTH OF THE ABOVE MENTIONED STRONG COLD FRONT...MUCH ABOVE  
AVERAGE TEMPERATURES WILL KEEP SUMMER LIKE WEATHER IN CONTROL FROM  
THE SOUTHERN PLAINS...EASTWARD THROUGH THE LOWER TO MID  
MISSISSIPPI VALLEY...TENNESSEE AND OHIO VALLEYS...SOUTH AND  
SOUTHEAST.  
 
IN RESPONSE TO THE OVERALL AMPLIFICATION OF THE MID TO UPPER LEVEL  
PATTERN FROM CENTRAL CANADA INTO THE NORTH CENTRAL U.S. AN AREA  
OF LOW PRESSURE IS EXPECTED TO UNDERGO RAPID DEEPENING WEDNESDAY  
NIGHT INTO THURSDAY FROM NORTHEAST ONTARIO INTO NORTHWEST QB.  
THIS WILL BRING POTENTIAL FOR EARLY FALL HEAVY SNOWS OVER PORTIONS  
OF NORTHEAST ONTARIO AND NORTHWEST QB.  
 
ORAVEC  
GRAPHICS AVAILABLE AT  
WWW.WPC.NCEP.NOAA.GOV/BASICWX/BASICWX_NDFD.PHP  

 
 
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