832  
FXUS01 KWBC 030722  
PMDSPD  
 
SHORT RANGE FORECAST DISCUSSION  
NWS WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD  
321 AM EDT WED OCT 3 2018  
 
VALID 12Z WED OCT 3 2018 - 12Z FRI OCT 5 2018  
 
...RAPIDLY DEVELOPING SURFACE LOW TRACKS ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES,  
WITH WARM WEATHER ACROSS THE CENTRAL AND EASTERN STATES...  
 
A POTENT SHORTWAVE TROUGH CROSSING THE NORTHERN PLAINS AND  
SOUTH-CENTRAL CANADA WILL SUPPORT THE RAPID DEVELOPMENT OF A  
STRONG SURFACE LOW FROM THE UPPER MIDWEST TO ONTARIO THROUGH  
WEDNESDAY. THIS LOW IS FORECAST TO UNDERGO EXPLOSIVE CYCLOGENESIS  
AS IT TRACKS NORTHEASTWARD TOWARDS NORTHERN QUEBEC BY THURSDAY,  
WITH A PRONOUNCED COLD FRONT TRAILING IT. THIS STRONG FRONT WILL  
THEN SWEEP ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES INTO NEW ENGLAND BY THURSDAY  
AFTERNOON. BIG TEMPERATURE CHANGES ARE EXPECTED WITH THE PASSAGE  
OF THIS FRONT, WITH THE MUCH ABOVE AVERAGE TEMPERATURES WEDNESDAY  
OVER THE CENTRAL AND NORTHERN PLAINS BEING REPLACED BY BELOW  
AVERAGE TEMPERATURES ON THURSDAY IN THE WAKE OF THIS FRONT. THIS  
COOLING TREND WILL THEN REACH INTO NEW ENGLAND BY FRIDAY.  
 
TO THE SOUTH AND EAST OF THE ABOVE MENTIONED STRONG COLD FRONT,  
WIDESPREAD READINGS IN THE 85 TO 90 DEGREE RANGE ARE LIKELY FROM  
THE SOUTHERN PLAINS TO THE OHIO VALLEY ON WEDNESDAY, WITH  
ANOMALIES UP TO 20 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL FOR EARLY OCTOBER. ON  
THURSDAY, READINGS ARE FORECAST TO BE ONLY IN THE 40S FOR DAYTIME  
HIGHS ACROSS THE NORTHERN PLAINS AND INTO MINNESOTA, MAKING IT  
FEEL MORE LIKE NOVEMBER. AREAS OF MODERATE TO HEAVY RAIN ARE  
LIKELY ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES REGION IN ASSOCIATION WITH THE  
SURFACE LOW AND COLD FRONT PASSING THROUGH.  
 
D. HAMRICK  
 
GRAPHICS AVAILABLE AT  
WWW.WPC.NCEP.NOAA.GOV/BASICWX/BASICWX_NDFD.PHP  

 
 
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