261  
FXUS01 KWBC 032005  
PMDSPD  
 
SHORT RANGE FORECAST DISCUSSION  
NWS WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD  
405 PM EDT WED OCT 03 2018  
 
VALID 00Z THU OCT 04 2018 - 00Z SAT OCT 06 2018  
 
...HEAVY RAINFALL AND SEVERE WEATHER POSSIBLE ACROSS THE UPPER  
GREAT LAKES TONIGHT...  
 
...BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES EXPECTED TO THE NORTH, WITH ABOVE  
NORMAL TEMPERATURES ACROSS THE SOUTHERN TIER...  
 
A RAPIDLY DEEPENING SURFACE LOW WILL CROSS THE UPPER GREAT LAKES  
INTO ONTARIO THIS EVENING AS IT DRAGS A COLD FRONT SOUTHWARD  
ACROSS THE MIDDLE MISSISSIPPI VALLEY AND THE OHIO VALLEY THE NEXT  
FEW DAYS. THE POTENTIAL FOR HEAVY RAINFALL AND SEVERE WEATHER WILL  
ACCOMPANY THE SURFACE LOW PASSAGE ACROSS THE UPPER GREAT LAKES  
THROUGH THIS EVENING AND INTO TONIGHT. WPC IS HIGHLIGHTING A  
SLIGHT RISK FOR FLASH FLOODING ACROSS THIS REGION TONIGHT, WHILE  
THE STORM PREDICTION CENTER HAS A SLIGHT TO ENHANCED RISK ACROSS  
THIS SAME AREA FOR SEVERE WEATHER, INCLUDING THE THREAT FOR  
DAMAGING WINDS, LARGE HAIL, AND TORNADOES. SHOWERS AND  
THUNDERSTORMS, WITH LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL POSSIBLE, ALONG THE  
TRAILING COLD FRONT ARE LIKELY AS THE FRONT PROGRESSES ACROSS THE  
OHIO VALLEY TOMORROW AND INTO THE NORTHEAST/MID-ATLANTIC ON  
FRIDAY. BEHIND THIS FRONT, A COLD HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM MOVES IN TO  
THE NORTHERN PLAINS, WHICH WILL ALLOW FOR AFTERNOON HIGHS AS MUCH  
AS 20 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL FOR THIS TIME OF THE YEAR. ACROSS THE  
SOUTHERN STATES, AND INTO THE MID-ATLANTIC, UPPER LEVEL RIDGING  
BUILDING ACROSS THE AREA WILL KEEP TEMPERATURES WARM AND HUMID.  
 
OUT WEST, A DEEP UPPER LEVEL LOW ENTERING THE SOUTHWEST WILL ALLOW  
FOR SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS CALIFORNIA AND THE  
DESERT SOUTHWEST TONIGHT, LIFTING INTO THE GREAT BASIN AND ROCKIES  
BY TOMORROW. LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL IS POSSIBLE, ESPECIALLY ALONG  
THE FAVORED TERRAIN IN THE SOUTHWEST THIS EVENING, AND WPC HAS  
HIGHLIGHTED PARTS OF THE REGION WITH A SLIGHT RISK THROUGH  
TOMORROW MORNING. COLD AIR TO THE NORTH OF THIS MAY ALSO ALLOW FOR  
MODERATE TO LOCALLY HEAVY SNOWFALL IN THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF THE  
NORTHERN ROCKIES.  
 
SANTORELLI  
 
GRAPHICS AVAILABLE AT  
WWW.WPC.NCEP.NOAA.GOV/BASICWX/BASICWX_NDFD.PHP  

 
 
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