697  
FXUS01 KWBC 042001  
PMDSPD  
 
SHORT RANGE FORECAST DISCUSSION  
NWS WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD  
400 PM EDT THU OCT 04 2018  
 
VALID 00Z FRI OCT 05 2018 - 00Z SUN OCT 07 2018  
 
...A FLASH FLOOD THREAT EXISTS FROM EASTERN KANSAS NORTHEASTWARD  
INTO THE UPPER GREAT LAKES ON FRIDAY...  
 
...POTENTIAL FOR SEVERE WEATHER EXPECTED OVER AREAS OF KANSAS AND  
THE OKLAHOMA/TEXAS PANHANDLES...  
 
...WELL BELOW AVERAGE TEMPERATURES ANTICIPATED ACROSS MUCH OF THE  
WESTERN/CENTRAL U.S. WHILE VAST WARMTH EXTENDS ELSEWHERE...  
 
HIGHLY AMPLIFIED FLOW ACROSS THE COUNTRY WILL KEEP A VERY ACTIVE  
WEATHER PATTERN HEADING INTO THE WEEKEND. SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT  
OVER THE MIDDLE OF THE COUNTRY WILL FEATURE A SERIES OF EMBEDDED  
DISTURBANCES FORECAST TO RACE FROM THE FOUR CORNERS TOWARD THE  
UPPER MIDWEST. SUCH IMPULSES ARE EXPECTED TO TRAVERSE ATOP A  
POTENT FRONTAL BOUNDARY AND ABUNDANT MOISTURE FROM THE GULF OF  
MEXICO. WIDESPREAD SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS SHOULD EXTEND FROM  
WEST TEXAS NORTHEASTWARD ACROSS MUCH OF EASTERN KANSAS AND  
MISSOURI INTO THE GREAT LAKES. WITHIN THIS AREA OF ACTIVE WEATHER,  
THE PRIMARY FLASH FLOOD THREAT WILL EXIST FROM THE CENTRAL PLAINS  
NORTHEASTWARD INTO THE UPPER GREAT LAKES, MOSTLY ON FRIDAY INTO  
SATURDAY MORNING. A MODERATE RISK FOR FLASH FLOODING IS IN PLACE  
OVER EASTERN IOWA INTO NORTHERN ILLINOIS/SOUTHERN WISCONSIN GIVEN  
HEAVY RAINFALL ON TOP OF SOILS WHICH ARE SATURATED FROM PRIOR  
HYDROLOGIC EVENTS. ADDITIONALLY, THE STORM PREDICTION CENTER IS  
ANTICIPATING AN ORGANIZED THREAT FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS  
SECTIONS OF KANSAS DOWN INTO THE OKLAHOMA/TEXAS PANHANDLES. NOT TO  
BE FORGOTTEN, ALONG THE NORTHERN EXTENT OF THE PRECIPITATION  
SHIELD, SURFACE TEMPERATURES WILL BE COLD ENOUGH TO SUPPORT  
SNOWFALL ACCUMULATIONS. BASED ON THE LATEST FORECAST, 4 TO 6  
INCHES OF SNOW IS POSSIBLE OVER NORTH DAKOTA WHILE SLIGHTLY  
LIGHTER AMOUNTS INTO NORTHERN MINNESOTA. FARTHER WEST, PACIFIC  
SYSTEMS TRAVERSING INLAND WILL SPREAD MODEST SNOW AMOUNTS TO THE  
TETONS NORTHWARD INTO SOUTHWESTERN MONTANA.  
 
A SHARP FRONTAL BOUNDARY STRETCHING ACROSS THE NATION WILL SUPPORT  
A FAIRLY IMPRESSIVE TEMPERATURE GRADIENT. NORTH OF THIS MEANDERING  
FRONT, DEPARTURES FROM CLIMATOLOGY SHOULD BE ON THE ORDER OF 15 TO  
20 DEGREES PRIMARILY OVER THE NORTHERN ROCKIES INTO THE ADJACENT  
NORTHERN/CENTRAL PLAINS. HIGH TEMPERATURES SHOULD STRUGGLE TO GET  
OUT OF THE UPPER 30S TO LOWER 40S ACROSS THE NORTHERN TIER OF THE  
COUNTRY. WHILE DAILY RECORDS SHOULD NOT BE BROKEN, IT DEFINITELY  
WILL FEEL LIKE AUTUMN IN THESE LOCATIONS. ON THE CONTRARY, SOUTH  
OF THE BOUNDARY, ABUNDANT WARMTH WILL BE COMMONPLACE AS A VAST  
RIDGE SITS OVERHEAD. READINGS WILL LIKELY BE 10 TO 15 DEGREES  
ABOVE AVERAGE FAVORING WIDESPREAD 80S AND EVEN PERHAPS 90 DEGREES  
AS FAR NORTH AS ST. LOUIS, MISSOURI ON FRIDAY. GIVEN THE HUMID  
CONDITIONS, OVERNIGHT RADIATIONAL COOLING SHOULD BE LIMITED  
LEADING TO LOWS IN THE MID/UPPER 60S. THIS COULD SUPPORT SOME  
DAILY RECORDS, ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE MID-SOUTH AND INTO THE  
APPALACHIANS.  
 
RUBIN-OSTER  
 
GRAPHICS AVAILABLE AT  
WWW.WPC.NCEP.NOAA.GOV/BASICWX/BASICWX_NDFD.PHP  

 
 
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