718  
FXUS01 KWBC 052001  
PMDSPD  
 
SHORT RANGE FORECAST DISCUSSION  
NWS WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD  
401 PM EDT FRI OCT 05 2018  
 
VALID 00Z SAT OCT 06 2018 - 00Z MON OCT 08 2018  
 
...THE BEGINNING OF A MULTI-DAY HEAVY RAIN EVENT FOR THE CENTRAL  
TO SOUTHERN PLAINS IS EXPECTED TO BEGIN TONIGHT...  
 
...SIGNIFICANTLY COLDER THAN AVERAGE OUT WEST INTO THE CENTRAL AND  
NORTHERN PLAINS WHILE SIGNIFICANTLY WARMER THAN AVERAGE OUT EAST  
FOR THE WEEKEND...  
 
...ACCUMULATING SNOW FROM THE INTERMOUNTAIN WEST INTO THE CENTRAL  
AND NORTHERN ROCKIES...  
 
THE UPPER LEVEL PATTERN ACROSS THE LOWER 48 WILL BECOME HIGHLY  
AMPLIFIED THROUGH SUNDAY WITH THE JET STREAM DIVING SOUTH INTO THE  
WESTERN U.S. WHILE RETURNING NORTH THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF THE  
NATION. THE TROUGH (WEST) AND RIDGE (EAST) PATTERN WILL ALLOW FOR  
A RELATIVELY ACTIVE WEATHER PATTERN OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS.  
 
AT THE SURFACE, A STRONG FRONT WILL SEPARATE TWO DISTINCTLY  
DIFFERENT AIR MASSES WITH HIGH TEMPERATURES ON SATURDAY AND SUNDAY  
FORECAST TO BE IN THE 80S TO LOW 90S FROM THE OHIO VALLEY AND  
MID-ATLANTIC REGION INTO TEXAS AND THE SOUTHEAST. THESE  
TEMPERATURES ARE 10-20 DEGREES ABOVE EARLY OCTOBER AVERAGES, WITH  
THE GREATER DEPARTURES TO OCCUR ACROSS THE OHIO VALLEY INTO  
UPSTATE NEW YORK. MEANWHILE, THE COLD SIDE OF THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY  
WILL FEATURE HIGHS IN THE 40S AND 50S FOR THE CENTRAL AND NORTHERN  
PLAINS INTO PORTIONS OF THE INTERMOUNTAIN WEST.  
 
TEMPERATURES WILL BE COLD ENOUGH TO SUPPORT SNOW IN LOCATIONS OF  
HIGHER TERRAIN FROM THE GREAT BASIN INTO THE CENTRAL AND NORTHERN  
ROCKIES AS WELL AS THE BLACK HILLS OF SOUTH DAKOTA. SOME OF THE  
MORE SIGNIFICANT ACCUMULATIONS ARE EXPECTED TO BEGIN SATURDAY  
NIGHT LASTING INTO SUNDAY ACROSS THE ROCKIES INTO THE BLACK HILLS  
AS COLDER TEMPERATURES FILTER DOWN FROM THE NORTH. ACCUMULATIONS  
IN EXCESS OF 6 INCHES ARE FORECAST FOR THE WASATCH, TETONS, BIG  
HORNS AND BLACK HILLS TO NAME A FEW.  
 
MEANWHILE, THE TRANSITION BETWEEN THE TWO AIR MASSES WILL BECOME  
SLOW MOVING BEGINNING TONIGHT AND BECOME A FOCUS FOR RAINFALL.  
SOME OF THE RAINFALL COULD BE HEAVY ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE  
SOUTHERN PLAINS AND UPPER MIDWEST TONIGHT, WITH LOCATIONS FROM  
TEXAS, OKLAHOMA INTO EASTERN KANSAS AND MISSOURI BECOMING A FOCUS  
FOR POSSIBLE FLASH FLOODING SATURDAY INTO SUNDAY. THIS EVENT IS  
EXPECTED TO BE THE BEGINNING OF A MULTI-DAY HEAVY RAIN EVENT TO  
IMPACT PORTIONS OF THE CENTRAL TO SOUTHERN PLAINS LASTING INTO  
NEXT WEEK.  
 
OTTO  
 
GRAPHICS AVAILABLE AT  
WWW.WPC.NCEP.NOAA.GOV/BASICWX/BASICWX_NDFD.PHP  

 
 
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