487  
FXUS01 KWBC 070857  
PMDSPD  
 
SHORT RANGE FORECAST DISCUSSION  
NWS WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD  
456 AM EDT SUN OCT 07 2018  
 
VALID 12Z SUN OCT 07 2018 - 12Z TUE OCT 09 2018  
 
...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS OVER PARTS OF  
THE SOUTHERN HIGH PLAINS...  
 
...HEAVY RAIN POSSIBLE FROM THE SOUTHERN PLAINS TO THE UPPER GREAT  
LAKES...  
 
...HEAVY RAIN POSSIBLE OVER THE FLORIDA KEYS DUE TO TROPICAL  
DEPRESSION FOURTEEN...  
 
...TEMPERATURES WILL BE 10 TO 25 DEGREES BELOW AVERAGE OVER PARTS  
OF THE NORTHERN/CENTRAL PLAINS...  
 
A FRONT EXTENDING FROM THE NORTHEAST SOUTHWESTWARD TO THE WESTERN  
OHIO VALLEY THEN MOVE SOUTHERLY FROM THE MIDDLE MISSISSIPPI VALLEY  
TO THE SOUTHERN PLAINS WILL BE QUASI-STATIONARY WHILE A WAVE OF  
LOW PRESSURE OVER THE CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS, LATE SUNDAY NIGHT, WILL  
MOVE NORTHWARD TO PARTS OF THE UPPER/MIDDLE MISSISSIPPI VALLEY BY  
TUESDAY. SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL DEVELOP ALONG AND NEAR  
THE BOUNDARY FROM THE LOWER GREAT LAKES TO THE MIDDLE MISSISSIPPI  
VALLEY SOUTHWARD TO SOUTHERN PLAINS THAT WILL END TEMPORARILY OVER  
THE LOWER GREAT LAKES OVERNIGHT SUNDAY BEFORE RETURNING ON MONDAY  
AFTERNOON INTO EVENING. THE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL  
CONTINUE OVER THE MIDDLE MISSISSIPPI VALLEY TO THE SOUTHERN PLAINS  
THROUGH TUESDAY. FURTHERMORE, RAIN WILL DEVELOP OVER PARTS OF THE  
NORTHERN PLAINS ON SUNDAY AFTERNOON THAT WILL EXPAND INTO PARTS OF  
THE UPPER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY OVERNIGHT SUNDAY CONTINUING INTO  
TUESDAY. AS A WARM FRONT LIFTS NORTHWARD ON SUNDAY INTO MONDAY  
EVENING, SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL MOVE NORTHWARD INTO THE  
UPPER GREAT LAKES/UPPER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY FROM SUNDAY INTO  
TUESDAY. IN ADDITION, RAIN WILL DEVELOP OVER PARTS OF THE  
NORTHEAST THAT WILL MOVE OFF THE NORTHEAST COAST BY MONDAY  
MORNING. TROPICAL LIKE MOISTURE AND DAYTIME HEATING WILL AID IN  
PRODUCING SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE SOUTHEAST/SOUTHERN  
MID-ATLANTIC INTO THE SOUTHERN OHIO/TENNESSEE VALLEYS THROUGH  
TUESDAY. ADDITIONALLY, MOISTURE FLOWING NORTHWARD OUT OF THE GULF  
OF MEXICO WILL AID IN PRODUCING SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS OVER  
PARTS OF THE CENTRAL/WESTERN GULF COAST THROUGH MONDAY EVENING.  
 
MEANWHILE, A DEEP UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH OVER THE SOUTHWESTERN PORTION  
OF THE COUNTRY WILL FORM AN UPPER-LEVEL LOW THAT WILL SLOWLY MOVE  
EASTWARD TO THE SOUTHWEST/SOUTHERN ROCKIES BY MONDAY EVENING. THE  
ENERGY WILL AID IN DEVELOPING RAIN WITH EMBEDDED THUNDERSTORMS  
OVER PARTS OF THE SOUTHWEST THAT WILL EXPAND INTO PARTS OF THE  
SOUTHERN ROCKIES BY SUNDAY EVENING, CONTINUING OVER THE REGION  
THROUGH TUESDAY. RAIN AND HIGHER ELEVATIONS SNOW WILL DEVELOP  
OVER PARTS OF THE GREAT BASIN AND THE NORTHERN/CENTRAL ROCKIES  
THAT WILL CONTINUE THROUGH MONDAY EVENING. LIGHT SNOW MAY DEVELOP  
OVER PARTS OF THE NORTHERN HIGH PLAINS ON SUNDAY INTO MONDAY  
EVENING.  
 
ELSEWHERE, ONSHORE FLOW WILL AID IN DEVELOPING RAIN OVER PARTS OF  
THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST ON SUNDAY THAT WILL CONTINUE THROUGH MONDAY  
EVENING. TROPICAL DEPRESSION FOURTEEN WILL IS FORECAST TO DEVELOP  
INTO A TROPICAL STORM BY SUNDAY EVENING OVER THE NORTHWESTERN  
CARIBBEAN THAT WILL MOVE NORTHWARD INTO THE GULF OF MEXICO BY  
MONDAY AFTERNOON INTO EVENING. SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS MAY  
DEVELOP OVER PARTS OF THE FLORIDA KEYS OVERNIGHT SUNDAY INTO  
MONDAY EVENING. PLEASE SEE THE LATEST ADVISORY ON T. D. FOURTEEN  
FROM THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER FOR THE TRACK AND INTENSITY.  
 
 
ZIEGENFELDER  
 
GRAPHICS AVAILABLE AT  
WWW.WPC.NCEP.NOAA.GOV/BASICWX/BASICWX_NDFD.PHP  

 
 
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