369  
FXUS01 KWBC 071846  
PMDSPD  
 
SHORT RANGE FORECAST DISCUSSION  
NWS WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD  
245 PM EDT SUN OCT 07 2018  
 
VALID 00Z MON OCT 08 2018 - 00Z WED OCT 10 2018  
 
...WIDESPREAD HEAVY TO EXCESSIVE RAINFALL LIKELY FROM THE  
SOUTHERN/CENTRAL PLAINS INTO THE UPPER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY AND  
UPPER GREAT LAKES REGION...  
 
...LARGE TEMPERATURE CONTRAST EXPECTED ACROSS THE NATION BETWEEN  
THE AMPLIFYING UPPER TROF OVER THE SOUTHWEST...GREAT BASIN AND  
ROCKIES AND THE STRONG MID TO UPPER LEVEL RIDGE CENTERED ALONG THE  
MID-ATLANTIC COAST..  
 
...TROPICAL STORM MICHAEL EXPECTED TO ENTER THE SOUTHERN GULF OF  
MEXICO MONDAY...THREATENING THE GULF COAST BY LATE TUESDAY INTO  
WEDNESDAY. HEAVY RAINS MAY BEGIN TO AFFECT THE FLORIDA KEYS  
BEGINNING SUNDAY NIGHT...  
 
WIDESPREAD HEAVY TO EXCESSIVE RAINFALL EXPECTED OVER THE NEXT  
THREE DAYS ACROSS THE MID SECTION OF THE NATION FROM THE SOUTHERN  
TO CENTRAL PLAINS INTO THE UPPER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY AND UPPER  
GREAT LAKES REGION. THE SLOW MOVING...AMPLIFYING MID TO UPPER  
LEVEL TROF OVER THE SOUTHWEST/GREAT BASIN/SOUTHERN ROCKIES REGION  
WILL CONTINUE TO PROVIDE STRONG LARGE SCALE LIFT IN THE AXIS OF  
MUCH ABOVE AVERAGE MOISTURE VALUES THAT WILL PERSIST ACROSS THE  
SOUTHERN TO CENTRAL PLAINS INTO THE UPPER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY/UPPER  
LAKES REGION. A SERIES OF WAVES OF HEAVY TO POTENTIALLY  
EXCESSIVE PRECIPITATION IS EXPECTED TO PUSH IN A GENERAL SOUTH TO  
NORTH DIRECTION ACROSS THE ABOVE LISTED AREAS OVER THE NEXT  
SEVERAL DAYS. THIS HAS LEAD TO FLASH FLOOD WATCHES BEING ISSUED  
ACROSS A LARGE PORTION OF THE SOUTHERN TO CENTRAL PLAINS AND OVER  
PORTIONS OF THE SOUTHWEST. WHILE THE HEAVIEST PRECIPITATION  
AMOUNTS ARE EXPECTED TO BE IN THE FORM OF RAIN ACROSS THE MID  
SECTION OF THE NATION...THERE IS POTENTIAL FOR HEAVY SNOWS FROM  
THE WASATCH OF UTAH..INTO THE ROCKIES OF COLORADO/WYOMING SUNDAY  
NIGHT INTO MONDAY AND NORTHEAST INTO THE NORTHERN HIGH PLAINS  
MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY.  
 
THERE WILL CONTINUE TO BE LARGE TEMPERATURE CONTRASTS ACROSS THE  
NATION OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS GIVEN THE OVERALL VERY AMPLIFIED  
FLOW FROM THE DEEP SOUTHWEST/GREAT BASIN/SOUTHERN ROCKIES UPPER  
TROF AND THE MID-ATLANTIC COAST UPPER RIDGE. HIGH TEMPERATURES  
ARE EXPECTED TO BE 15 TO 25 DEGREES BELOW AVERAGE OVER PORTIONS OF  
THE NORTHERN TO CENTRAL PLAINS...GREAT BASIN AND SOUTHWEST. AT  
THE SAME TIME...HIGH TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO BE 15 TO 20+  
DEGREES ABOVE AVERAGE FROM THE OHIO VALLEY...LOWER GREAT LAKES  
INTO PORTIONS OF THE NORTHEAST.  
 
TROPICAL STORM MICHAEL IS EXPECTED TO MOVE SLOWLY NORTHWARD LATE  
THIS WEEKEND OFF THE EAST COAST OF THE YUCATAN PENINSULA AND ENTER  
THE SOUTHERN GULF OF MEXICO ON MONDAY. THE INITIAL EFFECTS FROM  
THIS SYSTEM FOR THE U.S. WILL BE ACROSS THE FLORIDA KEYS WHERE  
HEAVY RAINS IN SOME OF THE OUTER BANDS MAY BEGIN TO AFFECT THIS  
REGION LATE SUNDAY INTO MONDAY. PLEASE REFER TO THE NHC  
ADVISORIES FOR POTENTIAL IMPACTS FROM THIS SYSTEM ON THE GULF  
COASTAL REGIONS LATER THIS WEEK.  
 
ORAVEC  
 
GRAPHICS AVAILABLE AT  
WWW.WPC.NCEP.NOAA.GOV/BASICWX/BASICWX_NDFD.PHP  

 
 
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