236  
FXUS01 KWBC 080804  
PMDSPD  
 
SHORT RANGE FORECAST DISCUSSION  
NWS WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD  
403 AM EDT MON OCT 08 2018  
 
VALID 12Z MON OCT 08 2018 - 12Z WED OCT 10 2018  
 
...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS OVER PARTS OF  
THE SOUTHERN HIGH PLAINS...  
 
...HEAVY RAIN POSSIBLE FROM PARTS OF THE UPPER GREAT LAKES TO THE  
SOUTHERN PLAINS...  
 
...T. S. MICHAEL IS FORECAST TO STRENGTHEN WHILE MOVING NORTHWARD  
INTO THE GULF OF MEXICO...  
 
...TEMPERATURES WILL BE 10 TO 25 DEGREES BELOW AVERAGE OVER PARTS  
OF THE NORTHERN/CENTRAL PLAINS...  
 
A FRONT EXTENDING FROM THE NORTHERN MID-ATLANTIC TO THE CENTRAL  
PLAINS THEN ROUGHLY SOUTHWARD TO SOUTHERN HIGH PLAINS WILL BE  
QUASI-STATIONARY FROM THE GREAT LAKES TO THE SOUTHERN PLAINS  
THROUGH WEDNESDAY. THE NORTHEASTERN PARTS OF THE BOUNDARY WILL  
LIFT NORTHWARD FROM THE NORTHERN MID-ATLANTIC INTO THE NORTHEAST  
NEAR THE CANADIAN BORDER. THE SOUTHERN HALF WILL MOVE SLOWLY  
EASTWARD TO THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY/SOUTHERN PLAINS BY  
WEDNESDAY. THE SYSTEM WILL PRODUCE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS  
ALONG AND NEAR THE FRONT FROM PARTS OF THE GREAT LAKES TO THE  
MIDDLE MISSISSIPPI VALLEY/CENTRAL PLAINS TO THE SOUTHERN PLAINS  
THAT WILL CONTINUE OVER PARTS OF THE REGION THROUGH WEDNESDAY.  
THE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL EXPAND FROM THE GREAT LAKES  
INTO THE NORTHEAST ON MONDAY MORNING INTO TUESDAY EVENING. JUST  
NORTH OF THE FRONT, RAIN WILL DEVELOP OVER PARTS OF THE  
NORTHERN/CENTRAL PLAINS INTO PARTS OF THE UPPER MISSISSIPPI  
VALLEY/UPPER GREAT LAKES THROUGH WEDNESDAY. ON TUESDAY MORNING  
SNOW WILL DEVELOP OVER PARTS OF THE NORTHERN HIGH PLAINS THAT WILL  
MOVE INTO PARTS OF THE NORTHERN PLAINS/UPPER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY BY  
WEDNESDAY. IN ADDITION, TROPICAL MOISTURE AND DAYTIME HEATING  
WILL AID IN PRODUCING SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS OVER PARTS OF THE  
SOUTHERN MID-ATLANTIC/SOUTHEAST INTO THE CENTRAL/WESTERN GULF  
COAST THROUGH TUESDAY EVENING.  
 
MEANWHILE, A DEEP UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH OVER THE ROCKIES WILL REMAIN  
QUASI-STATIONARY THROUGH WEDNESDAY. THE ENERGY WILL AID IN  
PRODUCING RAIN AND HIGHER ELEVATION SNOW OVER PARTS OF THE CENTRAL  
ROCKIES AND PARTS OF THE GREAT BASIN/SOUTHWEST THAT WILL CONTINUE  
OVER THE AREA THROUGH WEDNESDAY. WEAK ONSHORE FLOW OVER THE  
PACIFIC NORTHWEST WILL AID IN PRODUCING RAIN OVER THE NORTHWEST  
THROUGH MONDAY EVENING. OVERNIGHT MONDAY ADDITIONAL UPPER-LEVEL  
ENERGY WILL MOVE SOUTHEASTWARD FROM WESTERN CANADA INTO THE GREAT  
BASIN BY WEDNESDAY. RAIN WILL EXPAND INTO PARTS OF THE NORTHERN  
INTERMOUNTAIN REGION WITH SNOW DEVELOPING OVER THE HIGHER  
ELEVATIONS BY TUESDAY MORNING AND INTO PARTS OF THE NORTHERN  
ROCKIES BY TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY.  
 
T. S. MICHAEL IS FORECAST TO MOVE NORTHWARD INTO THE GULF OF  
MEXICO WHILE STRENGTHENING AND CONTINUE TO MOVE NORTHWARD TO NEAR  
THE EASTERN GULF COAST BY WEDNESDAY. SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORM  
ASSOCIATED WITH MICHAEL WILL BEGIN TO IMPACT THE EASTERN GULF  
COAST TUESDAY EVENING INTO WEDNESDAY MORNING. PLEASE CHECK THE  
LATEST ADVISORY FROM THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER FOR THE MOST UP  
TO DATE FORECAST ON STORM TRACK AND INTENSITY.  
 
ZIEGENFELDER  
 
GRAPHICS AVAILABLE AT  
WWW.WPC.NCEP.NOAA.GOV/BASICWX/BASICWX_NDFD.PHP  

 
 
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