407  
FXUS01 KWBC 081931  
PMDSPD  
 
SHORT RANGE FORECAST DISCUSSION  
NWS WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD  
330 PM EDT MON OCT 08 2018  
 
VALID 00Z TUE OCT 09 2018 - 00Z THU OCT 11 2018  
 
...WIDESPREAD HEAVY TO EXCESSIVE RAINFALL WILL CONTINUE INTO  
WEDNESDAY FROM THE SOUTHERN PLAINS TO THE GREAT LAKES...  
 
...HURRICANE MICHAEL WILL BEGIN IMPACTING THE EASTERN GULF COAST  
BY LATE TUESDAY AND INTO WEDNESDAY...  
 
...LARGE TEMPERATURE CONTRAST BETWEEN THE EASTERN U.S. AND THE  
CENTRAL/WESTERN STATES...  
 
WIDESPREAD HEAVY TO EXCESSIVE RAINFALL IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE  
ALONG A QUASI-STATIONARY FRONTAL BOUNDARY FROM THE  
SOUTHERN/CENTRAL PLAINS INTO THE UPPER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY AND  
UPPER GREAT LAKES TONIGHT AND THROUGH TUESDAY. FLASH FLOODING WILL  
REMAIN A THREAT, ESPECIALLY ACROSS PORTIONS OF TEXAS AND OKLAHOMA  
WHERE WPC HAS A HIGH RISK OF EXCESSIVE RAINFALL THROUGH TUESDAY  
MORNING AND A MODERATE RISK FROM OKLAHOMA THROUGH NORTHERN  
WISCONSIN TUESDAY INTO EARLY WEDNESDAY. IN ADDITION TO THE HEAVY  
RAINFALL, SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE WITHIN A VERY  
MOIST AND UNSTABLE AIRMASS, AND SPC HAS HIGHLIGHTED THIS ENTIRE  
REGION -- FROM THE SOUTHERN PLAINS TO THE UPPER MIDWEST -- WITHIN  
A SLIGHT RISK ON TUESDAY. BY WEDNESDAY, THE UPPER LEVEL SYSTEM  
RESPONSIBLE FOR THIS EVENT SHOULD FINALLY BEGIN PUSHING SLOWLY  
EASTWARD, BUT HEAVY TO EXCESSIVE RAINFALL WILL STILL BE POSSIBLE  
ALONG THE FRONT FROM THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY INTO THE UPPER  
GREAT LAKES. IN ADDITION, THERE IS POTENTIAL FOR HEAVY SNOWFALL ON  
THE BACKSIDE OF THIS SYSTEM ACROSS THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS OF THE  
GREAT BASIN, CENTRAL ROCKIES, AND INTO PARTS OF THE NORTHERN HIGH  
PLAINS.  
 
HURRICANE MICHAEL, CURRENTLY LOCATED IN THE EASTERN GULF OF  
MEXICO, IS FORECAST TO BE A DANGEROUS MAJOR HURRICANE BY THE TIME  
IT REACHES THE NORTHEASTERN GULF COAST ON WEDNESDAY. MOISTURE  
ASSOCIATED WITH MICHAEL HAS ALREADY STARTED TO PRODUCE SHOWERS AND  
THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE EASTERN GULF COAST, BUT THE  
BULK OF THE HEAVY RAINFALL IS EXPECTED TO ARRIVE BY TUESDAY  
EVENING AS MICHAEL'S CENTER NEARS THE COASTLINE. REGARDLESS OF THE  
EXACT TRACK OR INTENSITY AT LANDFALL, HEAVY RAINFALL AND  
LIFE-THREATENING FLASH FLOODING ARE POSSIBLE ACROSS THE FLORIDA  
PANHANDLE AND BIG BEND REGION ON WEDNESDAY, AND INTO PORTIONS OF  
THE CAROLINAS BY THURSDAY. IN ADDITION, MICHAEL IS EXPECTED TO  
PRODUCE LIFE-THREATENING STORM SURGE ALONG THE FLORIDA GULF COAST.  
FOR THE LATEST INFORMATION REGARDING MICHAEL, PLEASE REFER TO THE  
NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER AT WWW.HURRICANES.GOV.  
 
WITH REGARDS TO TEMPERATURES ACROSS THE COUNTRY, THE NATIONS  
MIDSECTION WILL CONTINUE TO BE THE DIVIDING LINE BETWEEN A STRONG  
UPPER LEVEL RIDGE ACROSS THE EAST, AND AN AMPLIFYING UPPER LEVEL  
TROUGH IN THE WEST. TEMPERATURES FOR PORTIONS OF THE EAST ARE  
FORECAST TO BE AS MUCH AS 10 TO 20 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL, WITH  
WIDESPREAD RECORD HIGH OVERNIGHT MINIMUM TEMPERATURES LIKELY. A  
HANDFUL OF AFTERNOON HIGH RECORDS ARE IN JEOPARDY AS WELL,  
ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE OHIO VALLEY AND LOWER GREAT LAKES ON  
TUESDAY. ON THE OTHER SIDE OF THE FRONT, TEMPERATURES WILL BE WELL  
BELOW NORMAL, WITH AFTERNOON HIGHS OF 20 TO 30 DEGREES BELOW  
NORMAL POSSIBLE FOR PORTIONS OF THE CENTRAL AND NORTHERN HIGH  
PLAINS.  
 
SANTORELLI  
 
GRAPHICS AVAILABLE AT  
WWW.WPC.NCEP.NOAA.GOV/BASICWX/BASICWX_NDFD.PHP  

 
 
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