149  
FXUS01 KWBC 090824  
PMDSPD  
 
SHORT RANGE FORECAST DISCUSSION  
NWS WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD  
424 AM EDT TUE OCT 09 2018  
 
VALID 12Z TUE OCT 09 2018 - 12Z THU OCT 11 2018  
 
...HURRICANE MICHAEL IS FORECAST TO MAKE LANDFALL ALONG THE  
FLORIDA PANHANDLE PRODUCING VERY HEAVY RAIN...  
 
...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM PARTS OF  
THE MIDDLE/UPPER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY INTO THE SOUTHERN PLAINS...  
 
...HEAVY RAIN POSSIBLE OVER PARTS OF THE UPPER GREAT LAKES/UPPER  
MISSISSIPPI VALLEY INTO PARTS OF THE CENTRAL PLAINS...  
 
...HEAVY SNOW POSSIBLE OVER PARTS OF THE UPPER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY  
AND OVER THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS OF THE NORTHERN/CENTRAL ROCKIES AND  
EASTERN GREAT BASIN...  
 
HURRICANE MICHAEL IS FORECAST TO MAKE LANDFALL ALONG THE FLORIDA  
PANHANDLE ON WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON AND MOVE NORTHEASTWARD TO THE  
SOUTHERN MID-ATLANTIC BY THURSDAY. MICHAEL WILL PRODUCE VERY  
HEAVY RAIN, STRONG WIND, AND STORM SURGE. SHOWERS AND  
THUNDERSTORMS WILL DEVELOP ALONG THE FLORIDA PANHANDLE OVERNIGHT  
TUESDAY AND MOVE NORTHEASTWARD INTO GEORGIA BY THURSDAY. PLEASE  
SEE THE LATEST ADVISORY FROM THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER FOR THE  
LATEST ON STORM TRACK AND INTENSITY.  
 
MEANWHILE, A FRONT EXTENDING FROM THE UPPER GREAT LAKES TO THE  
MIDDLE MISSISSIPPI VALLEY THEN SOUTHWESTWARD INTO THE SOUTHERN  
PLAINS WILL MOVE SLOWLY EASTWARD TO THE UPPER MISSISSIPPI  
VALLEY/UPPER GREAT LAKES SOUTHWARD TO PARTS OF THE TENNESSEE AND  
LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEYS BY WEDNESDAY EVENING. SHOWERS AND  
THUNDERSTORMS WILL DEVELOP ALONG AND AHEAD OF THE BOUNDARY FROM  
PARTS OF THE GREAT LAKES TO THE MIDDLE MISSISSIPPI VALLEY  
SOUTHWESTWARD INTO THE SOUTHERN PLAINS THAT WILL MOVE EASTWARD TO  
PARTS OF THE UPPER GREAT LAKES SOUTHWARD TO THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI  
VALLEY BY WEDNESDAY EVENING. NORTH OF THE FRONT RAIN WILL DEVELOP  
OVER PARTS OF THE UPPER GREAT LAKES/UPPER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY  
THROUGH WEDNESDAY EVENING. RAIN WILL CHANGE OVER TO SNOW OVER  
PARTS OF THE UPPER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY NEAR CANADA ON WEDNESDAY  
MORNING CONTINUING INTO WEDNESDAY EVENING. IN ADDITION, TROPICAL  
MOISTURE WILL STEADILY INCREASE OVER THE SOUTHERN MID-ATLANTIC  
INTO THE SOUTHEAST THROUGH WEDNESDAY EVENING INTO THURSDAY.  
DIURNAL HEATING WILL AID IN PRODUCING SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS  
OVER PARTS OF THE SOUTHERN MID-ATLANTIC INTO THE SOUTHEAST THROUGH  
TUESDAY EVENING INTO WEDNESDAY MORNING. ON WEDNESDAY THE SHOWERS  
AND THUNDERSTORM WILL EXPAND INTO THE OHIO/TENNESSEE VALLEYS  
CONTINUING INTO THURSDAY.  
 
FURTHERMORE, A DEEP UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH OVER THE NORTHERN HIGH  
PLAINS AND THE NORTHERN/CENTRAL ROCKIES WILL BE REINFORCED BY  
ADDITIONAL UPPER-LEVEL ENERGY MOVING SOUTHEASTWARD FROM THE  
PACIFIC NORTHWEST ON TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY. THE ENERGY WILL AID  
IN DEVELOPING LOWER ELEVATION RAIN AND HIGHER ELEVATION SNOW OVER  
PARTS OF THE NORTHERN ROCKIES INTO PARTS OF THE NORTHERN HIGH  
PLAINS THAT WILL EXPAND SOUTHWARD INTO THE CENTRAL ROCKIES/GREAT  
BASIN AND PARTS OF THE CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS BY OVERNIGHT TUESDAY.  
THE RAIN AND SNOW WILL BEGIN TO WANE OVERNIGHT WEDNESDAY. WEAK  
ONSHORE FLOW AND UPPER-LEVEL ENERGY WILL ALSO AID IN PRODUCING  
RAIN OVER PARTS OF THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST THAT WILL END OVERNIGHT  
TUESDAY.  
 
 
ZIEGENFELDER  
 
GRAPHICS AVAILABLE AT  
WWW.WPC.NCEP.NOAA.GOV/BASICWX/BASICWX_NDFD.PHP  

 
 
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