528  
FXUS01 KWBC 091937  
PMDSPD  
 
SHORT RANGE FORECAST DISCUSSION  
NWS WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD  
337 PM EDT TUE OCT 09 2018  
 
VALID 00Z WED OCT 10 2018 - 00Z FRI OCT 12 2018  
 
...HURRICANE MICHAEL FORECAST TO MAKE LANDFALL ALONG THE FLORIDA  
PANHANDLE ON WEDNESDAY WITH LIFE-THREATENING RAINFALL ALONG THE  
COAST AND HEAVY RAINFALL AND FLASH FLOODING LIKELY FOR PARTS OF  
THE SOUTHEAST AND CAROLINAS...  
 
...HEAVY TO EXCESSIVE RAINFALL WILL CONTINUE ALONG A COLD FRONT  
FINALLY BEGINNING TO PUSH EASTWARD ACROSS EASTERN PLAINS AND  
MISSISSIPPI VALLEY...  
 
...LARGE TEMPERATURE CONTRAST BETWEEN THE EASTERN U.S. AND THE  
CENTRAL/WESTERN STATES...  
 
HURRICANE MICHAEL IS FORECAST TO MAKE LANDFALL AS A MAJOR  
HURRICANE BY WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON ALONG THE FLORIDA PANHANDLE AND  
CONTINUE A NORTHEASTERLY TRACK AS IT MOVES ACROSS GEORGIA AND THE  
CAROLINAS THROUGH THURSDAY. HEAVY RAINFALL AND LIFE-THREATENING  
FLASH FLOODING ARE LIKELY, WITH STORM TOTAL RAINFALL OF 4 TO 8  
INCHES (LOCALLY HIGHER AMOUNTS UP TO 12 INCHES) FORECAST ACROSS  
THE FLORIDA PANHANDLE/BIG BEND REGION, NORTHWARD INTO THE  
CAROLINAS. WPC HAS PLACED THIS ENTIRE REGION WITHIN A MODERATE  
RISK FOR EXCESSIVE RAINFALL/FLASH FLOODING. IN ADDITION, DANGEROUS  
HURRICANE FORCE WINDS AND LIFE-THREATENING STORM SURGE IS LIKELY  
ALONG THE COAST WHERE HURRICANE AND STORM SURGE WARNINGS ARE IN  
EFFECT. AS IS TYPICAL WITH A TROPICAL SYSTEM, A TORNADO THREAT  
WILL BE PRESENT AS WELL, AND THE STORM PREDICTION CENTER HAS  
HIGHLIGHTED THIS WITH A SLIGHT RISK ON THEIR CONVECTIVE OUTLOOKS  
FOR WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY. FOR THE LATEST INFORMATION ON STORM  
TRACK AND INTENSITY OF MICHAEL, PLEASE REFER TO THE NATIONAL  
HURRICANE CENTER.  
 
THE STORM SYSTEM RESPONSIBLE FOR THE RELENTLESS HEAVY RAINFALL  
ACROSS THE NATIONS MID-SECTION THE PAST FEW DAYS WILL FINALLY  
BEGIN SHIFTING EASTWARD THIS EVENING. MEANWHILE, STRONG TO SEVERE  
THUNDERSTORMS AND HEAVY TO EXCESSIVE RAINFALL WILL CONTINUE ALONG  
THE COLD FRONT AS IT PROGRESSES THROUGH THE CENTRAL PLAINS,  
MISSISSIPPI VALLEY, AND THE UPPER GREAT LAKES. THROUGH EARLY  
WEDNESDAY, A MODERATE RISK FOR EXCESSIVE RAINS/FLASH FLOODING  
REMAINS IN PLACE FROM EASTERN OKLAHOMA TO WISCONSIN WITH A SLIGHT  
TO ENHANCED RISK FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS. A SLIGHT RISK FOR  
EXCESSIVE RAINFALL ALSO EXTENDS INTO PORTIONS OF THE UPPER MIDWEST  
AND GREAT LAKES ON WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY. HEAVY RAINFALL WILL  
SPREAD INTO THE OHIO VALLEY AND THE MID-ATLANTIC/NORTHEAST BY  
THURSDAY AS THIS FRONT BEGINS TO INTERACT WITH THE MOISTURE AND  
CIRCULATION OF HURRICANE MICHAEL. OUT WEST, UNDERNEATH BROAD UPPER  
LEVEL TROUGHING, HEAVY SNOWFALL IS ALSO POSSIBLE ON THE BACKSIDE  
OF THIS SYSTEM ACROSS THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS OF THE  
NORTHERN/CENTRAL ROCKIES, AND PORTIONS OF THE NORTHERN AND CENTRAL  
PLAINS. WINTER WEATHER ADVISORIES AND A FEW WARNINGS ARE IN EFFECT  
FROM WESTERN NEBRASKA INTO SOUTHERN NORTH DAKOTA. LOWER ELEVATION  
RAIN AND MOUNTAIN SNOWS ARE ALSO POSSIBLE ACROSS THE GREAT BASIN  
WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY.  
 
WITH REGARDS TO TEMPERATURES ACROSS THE COUNTRY, THE CENTRAL U.S.  
FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL CONTINUE TO BE THE DIVIDING POINT BETWEEN A  
WARM AND HUMID AIRMASS ACROSS THE EAST, AND CHILLY ARCTIC AIR IN  
THE CENTRAL AND WESTERN STATES. TEMPERATURES AHEAD OF THIS FRONT  
ARE AS MUCH AS 10 TO 20 DEGREES ABOVE CLIMATOLOGY FOR THIS TIME OF  
THE YEAR, AND WIDESPREAD OVERNIGHT HIGH MINIMUM TEMPERATURE  
RECORDS ARE IN JEOPARDY TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY NIGHT FROM THE GULF  
COAST STATES TO THE NORTHEAST. ON THE OTHER END OF THE SCALE,  
BEHIND THE FRONT DAYTIME HIGH TEMPERATURES ARE FORECAST TO DIP TO  
AS MUCH AS 15 TO 30 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE  
NORTHERN AND CENTRAL PLAINS.  
 
SANTORELLI  
 
GRAPHICS AVAILABLE AT  
WWW.WPC.NCEP.NOAA.GOV/BASICWX/BASICWX_NDFD.PHP  

 
 
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