417  
FXUS01 KWBC 100800  
PMDSPD  
 
SHORT RANGE FORECAST DISCUSSION  
NWS WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD  
400 AM EDT WED OCT 10 2018  
 
VALID 12Z WED OCT 10 2018 - 12Z FRI OCT 12 2018  
 
...HURRICANE MICHAEL IS FORECAST TO MAKE LANDFALL ALONG THE  
FLORIDA PANHANDLE...  
 
...HEAVY RAIN POSSIBLE FROM PARTS OF FLORIDA PANHANDLE  
NORTHEASTWARD TO PARTS OF THE SOUTHERN MID-ATLANTIC...  
 
...HEAVY SNOW IS POSSIBLE OVER PARTS OF THE UPPER MISSISSIPPI  
VALLEY AND THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS OF THE NORTHERN/CENTRAL ROCKIES...  
 
...TEMPERATURES WILL BE 10 TO 25 DEGREES BELOW AVERAGE OVER PARTS  
OF THE NORTHERN/CENTRAL ROCKIES TO THE NORTHERN/CENTRAL PLAINS...  
 
HURRICANE MICHAEL IS FORECAST TO MAKE LANDFALL AS A MAJOR  
HURRICANE BY WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON ALONG THE FLORIDA PANHANDLE AND  
CONTINUE A NORTHEASTERLY TRACK AS IT MOVES ACROSS GEORGIA INTO THE  
CAROLINAS BY THURSDAY. HEAVY RAIN AND LIFE-THREATENING FLASH  
FLOODING ARE LIKELY ACROSS THE FLORIDA PANHANDLE/BIG BEND REGION,  
NORTHWARD INTO THE CAROLINAS. WPC HAS PLACED THIS ENTIRE REGION  
WITHIN A MODERATE RISK FOR EXCESSIVE RAINFALL. IN ADDITION,  
DANGEROUS HURRICANE FORCE WIND AND LIFE-THREATENING STORM SURGE IS  
LIKELY ALONG THE COAST WHERE HURRICANE AND STORM SURGE WARNINGS  
ARE IN EFFECT. AS IS TYPICAL WITH A TROPICAL SYSTEM, A TORNADO  
THREAT WILL BE PRESENT AS WELL, AND THE STORM PREDICTION CENTER  
HAS HIGHLIGHTED THIS WITH A SLIGHT RISK ON THEIR CONVECTIVE  
OUTLOOKS. FOR THE LATEST INFORMATION ON STORM TRACK AND INTENSITY  
OF MICHAEL, PLEASE REFER TO THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER.  
 
MEANWHILE, A FRONT EXTENDING FROM NORTHERN NEW ENGLAND WESTWARD TO  
THE GREAT LAKES/MIDDLE MISSISSIPPI VALLEY SOUTHWARD TO THE  
SOUTHERN PLAINS THAT WILL MOVE EASTWARD TO NEW ENGLAND ROUGHLY  
SOUTHWARD TO THE FLORIDA PANHANDLE BY FRIDAY. SHOWERS AND  
THUNDERSTORMS WILL DEVELOP ALONG AND AHEAD OF THE BOUNDARY FROM  
PARTS OF THE GREAT LAKES SOUTHWARD TO THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI  
VALLEY/WESTERN GULF COAST THAT WILL, LIKEWISE,MOVE EASTWARD TO NEW  
ENGLAND SOUTHWARD TO THE SOUTHEAST BY FRIDAY, TOO. SHOWERS AND  
THUNDERSTORMS WILL ALSO DEVELOP FROM THE GREAT LAKES TO NEW  
ENGLAND THAT WILL END FROM WEST TO EAST THROUGH FRIDAY. NORTH AND  
WEST OF THE FRONT RAIN AND SNOW WILL DEVELOP OVER PARTS OF THE  
NORTHERN/CENTRAL PLAINS INTO THE UPPER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY THAT  
WILL END OVER THE PLAINS BY THURSDAY MORNING AND OVER THE UPPER  
MISSISSIPPI VALLEY BY FRIDAY MORNING.  
 
UPPER-LEVEL ENERGY OVER NORTHERN ROCKIES/GREAT BASIN WILL MOVE  
EASTWARD TO THE GREAT LAKES BY THURSDAY MORNING WHILE ADDITIONAL  
UPPER-LEVEL ENERGY MOVES SOUTHEASTWARD OUT OF WESTERN CANADA INTO  
THE NORTHERN PLAINS BY FRIDAY. THE ENERGY WILL PRODUCE MOUNTAIN  
SNOW AND VALLEY RAIN OVER PARTS OF THE NORTHERN INTERMOUNTAIN  
REGION/NORTHERN ROCKIES INTO PARTS THE GREAT BASIN/CENTRAL ROCKIES  
THAT WILL WANE OVER THE NORTHERN INTERMOUNTAIN REGION/NORTHERN  
ROCKIES BY THURSDAY MORNING. OVERNIGHT WEDNESDAY, RAIN AND HIGHER  
ELEVATION SNOW WILL DEVELOP OVER PARTS OF THE SOUTHWEST/CENTRAL  
ROCKIES THAT WILL CONTINUE INTO THURSDAY EVENING.  
 
 
ZIEGENFELDER  
 
GRAPHICS AVAILABLE AT  
WWW.WPC.NCEP.NOAA.GOV/BASICWX/BASICWX_NDFD.PHP  

 
 
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