605  
FXUS01 KWBC 101939  
PMDSPD  
 
SHORT RANGE FORECAST DISCUSSION  
NWS WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD  
338 PM EDT WED OCT 10 2018  
 
VALID 00Z THU OCT 11 2018 - 00Z SAT OCT 13 2018  
 
...LIFE-THREATENING WIND, RAIN, AND FLASH FLOODING ONGOING AS  
HURRICANE MICHAEL MOVES INLAND OVER THE SOUTHEAST...  
 
...HEAVY RAINFALL POSSIBLE ALONG A COLD FRONT FROM THE OHIO VALLEY  
TO THE MID-ATLANTIC/NORTHEAST TONIGHT AND ON THURSDAY...  
 
...RAINFALL ASSOCIATED WITH TROPICAL STORM SERGIO MAY BEGIN  
IMPACTING PORTIONS OF ARIZONA AND NEW MEXICO BY FRIDAY...  
 
DANGEROUS AND MAJOR HURRICANE MICHAEL MADE LANDFALL EARLIER THIS  
AFTERNOON ALONG THE FLORIDA PANHANDLE AND WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE  
NORTHEASTWARD THROUGH GEORGIA AND THE CAROLINAS ON THURSDAY, AND  
OFF THE MID-ATLANTIC COAST BY FRIDAY. LIFE-THREATENING HURRICANE  
FORCE WINDS, HEAVY RAINFALL, AND COASTAL STORM SURGE ARE ONGOING.  
AS MUCH AS 4 TO 8 INCHES OF RAIN, WITH LOCALLY HIGHER AMOUNTS, IS  
EXPECTED ASSOCIATED WITH MICHAEL FROM THE FLORIDA PANHANDLE TO  
SOUTHEAST VIRGINIA. THIS COULD PRODUCE LIFE-THREATENING FLASH  
FLOODING AND WPC HAS HIGHLIGHTED THIS ENTIRE REGION WITHIN A  
MODERATE RISK ON THE LATEST EXCESSIVE RAINFALL GRAPHICS. IN  
ADDITION, AND AS IS TYPICAL WITH TROPICAL SYSTEMS, THE TORNADO  
THREAT WILL CONTINUE WITH THE STORM PREDICTION CENTER HAVING PARTS  
OF THE SOUTHEAST AND EASTERN CAROLINAS WITHIN A SLIGHT TO ENHANCED  
RISK FOR SEVERE STORMS. PLEASE REFER TO THE NATIONAL HURRICANE  
CENTER FOR THE LATEST INFORMATION ON THE TRACK AND INTENSITY OF  
MICHAEL.  
 
MEANWHILE, A STRONG COLD FRONT WILL PUSH EASTWARD ACROSS THE OHIO  
VALLEY TONIGHT WITH MODERATE TO LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL CONTINUING  
ALONG THE BOUNDARY. THIS FRONT WILL MOVE INTO THE MID-ATLANTIC  
STATES BY THURSDAY AND, LIKELY WITH PARTIAL INFLUENCE FROM THE  
MOISTURE OF HURRICANE MICHAEL, HEAVY RAINFALL WILL BE POSSIBLE  
ALONG THE FRONT FROM THE MID-ATLANTIC, INTO THE NORTHEAST. THIS  
FRONT WILL BE FAIRLY QUICK MOVING WHICH SHOULD LIMIT THE FLASH  
FLOOD THREAT TO MARGINAL TO SLIGHT AT BEST. TO THE NORTH AND WEST  
OF THE LOW PRESSURE CENTER, ACCUMULATING SNOWFALL WILL BE POSSIBLE  
TONIGHT ACROSS NORTHERN MINNESOTA AND EASTERN NORTH DAKOTA. BEHIND  
THIS COLD FRONT, COLD ARCTIC AIR IS ALREADY FILTERING INTO THE  
CENTRAL U.S. AND TEMPERATURES ACROSS THE PLAINS AND INTO THE  
MISSISSIPPI VALLEY COULD BE AS MUCH AS 10 TO 20 DEGREES BELOW  
NORMAL THROUGH FRIDAY. FREEZE WATCHES AND WARNINGS, AND FROST  
ADVISORIES, ARE IN EFFECT ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE CENTRAL PLAINS.  
 
BROAD TROUGHING OVER THE WESTERN U.S. WILL ALLOW FOR LOWER  
ELEVATION RAIN AND MOUNTAIN SNOWS ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE GREAT  
BASIN AND ROCKIES ON THURSDAY. BY FRIDAY, ORGANIZED RAINFALL MAY  
BEGIN MOVING INTO PORTIONS OF ARIZONA AND NEW MEXICO ASSOCIATED  
WITH TROPICAL STORM SERGIO. REFER TO THE NHC FOR THE LATEST ON  
SERGIO.  
 
SANTORELLI  
 
GRAPHICS AVAILABLE AT  
WWW.WPC.NCEP.NOAA.GOV/BASICWX/BASICWX_NDFD.PHP  

 
 
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