502  
FXUS01 KWBC 110759  
PMDSPD  
 
SHORT RANGE FORECAST DISCUSSION  
NWS WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD  
358 AM EDT THU OCT 11 2018  
 
VALID 12Z THU OCT 11 2018 - 12Z SAT OCT 13 2018  
 
...TROPICAL STORM MICHAEL WILL BRING LIFE-THREATENING FLASH  
FLOODING, HEAVY RAIN, AND STRONG WINDS TO THE CAROLINAS INTO  
VIRGINIA TODAY...  
   
..HEAVY RAIN IS LIKELY IN THE MID-ATLANTIC AND NORTHEAST TODAY
 
 
   
..COOL TEMPERATURES AND SNOW POSSIBLE IN THE CENTRAL U.S.
 
 
...RAINS AHEAD OF SERGIO WILL BEGIN ON FRIDAY FOR THE SOUTHWEST TO  
SOUTHERN PLAINS...  
 
TROPICAL STORM MICHAEL WILL CONTINUE TO BRING DANGEROUS CONDITIONS  
AS IT TRACKS THROUGH THE CAROLINAS AND INTO SOUTHEASTERN VIRGINIA  
TODAY. INTENSE RAINFALL RATES COMBINED WITH WET ANTECEDENT  
CONDITIONS HAS LED TO THE ISSUANCE OF A HIGH RISK OF EXCESSIVE  
RAINFALL/FLASH FLOODING FOR MUCH OF NORTH CAROLINA AND INTO  
SOUTHERN VIRGINIA. 3 TO 6 INCHES OF RAIN, WITH ISOLATED MAXIMUM  
AMOUNTS OF 8 INCHES, ARE EXPECTED THERE. TROPICAL STORM FORCE  
WINDS ARE OF COURSE STILL A THREAT, AND THE STORM PREDICTION  
CENTER HAS INDICATED ISOLATED TORNADOES ARE POSSIBLE IN THE  
EASTERN CAROLINAS AND SOUTHEASTERN VIRGINIA TODAY. PLEASE REFER TO  
THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER FOR THE LATEST INFORMATION ON THE  
TRACK AND INTENSITY OF MICHAEL.  
 
TO THE WEST OF TROPICAL STORM MICHAEL, A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE  
EASTWARD THROUGH THE APPALACHIANS ON THURSDAY AND CLEARING THE  
EASTERN SEABOARD BY FRIDAY MORNING. AS TROPICAL MOISTURE STREAMS  
AHEAD OF THE FRONT, HEAVY RAINFALL IS POSSIBLE ON THURSDAY NORTH  
OF MICHAEL ITSELF. SLIGHT TO MODERATE RISKS OF FLASH FLOODING ARE  
IN PLACE ALONG THE MID-ATLANTIC AND SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND COASTS.  
BEHIND THIS COLD FRONT, THE EASTERN U.S. WILL FINALLY SEE  
FALL-LIKE TEMPERATURES FOR THE END OF THE WEEK.  
 
AN UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH IN THE WESTERN U.S. AND ANOTHER SURFACE  
FRONT WILL HELP SUPPORT SNOWFALL FORMATION IN THE CENTRAL ROCKIES  
ON THURSDAY, WITH 6 TO 10 INCHES POSSIBLE IN THE HIGHEST  
ELEVATIONS. SOME LIGHT SNOWFALL IS POSSIBLE IN THE CENTRAL PLAINS  
AND MIDDLE MISSISSIPPI VALLEY BY FRIDAY MORNING, WITH COOLER THAN  
NORMAL TEMPERATURES THERE. IN FACT, HIGH TEMPERATURES IN THE  
NORTHERN AND CENTRAL PLAINS AND UPPER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY ARE  
FORECAST TO BE 15 TO 25 DEGREES BELOW AVERAGE ON THURSDAY, AND  
WIDESPREAD FREEZE WARNINGS ARE IN EFFECT FOR THE COLD MORNINGS. BY  
FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY, SNOW IS POSSIBLE IN THE NORTHERN  
ROCKIES AND NORTHERN PLAINS AS A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM APPROACHES.  
 
PER THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER, TROPICAL STORM SERGIO IS  
FORECAST TO MOVE EASTWARD AND MAKE LANDFALL IN BAJA CALIFORNIA  
AROUND FRIDAY MORNING. MOISTURE STREAMING AHEAD OF SERGIO WILL  
CAUSE RAINFALL TO BEGIN IN THE SOUTHWEST U.S. BY FRIDAY, AND AS  
SERGIO CONTINUES MOVING NORTHEAST, SPREAD INTO THE SOUTHERN  
PLAINS. PLEASE SEE THE NHC'S WEBSITE FOR THE LATEST ON SERGIO.  
 
TATE  
 
GRAPHICS AVAILABLE AT  
WWW.WPC.NCEP.NOAA.GOV/BASICWX/BASICWX_NDFD.PHP  

 
 
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