879  
FXUS01 KWBC 111939  
PMDSPD  
 
SHORT RANGE FORECAST DISCUSSION  
NWS WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD  
339 PM EDT THU OCT 11 2018  
 
VALID 00Z FRI OCT 12 2018 - 00Z SUN OCT 14 2018  
 
...HEAVY RAINFALL AND FLASH FLOODING TO CONTINUE THIS EVENING  
ACROSS THE CAROLINAS AND MID-ATLANTIC AS MICHAEL MOVES OFFSHORE...  
 
...RAINS AHEAD OF SERGIO WILL BEGIN ON FRIDAY FOR THE SOUTHWEST  
MOVING INTO THE SOUTHERN PLAINS BY THE WEEKEND...  
 
...TEMPERATURES ACROSS THE CENTRAL U.S. COULD BE AS MUCH AS 10 TO  
20 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL ACROSS THE PLAINS AND THE MIDWEST...  
 
TROPICAL STORM MICHAEL, CURRENTLY LOCATED IN WESTERN NORTH  
CAROLINA, WILL MOVE OFF THE MID-ATLANTIC COAST THIS EVENING AND  
TRANSITION TO POST-TROPICAL AS IT RACES NORTHWARD OFF THE  
NORTHEAST COASTLINE. HEAVY RAINFALL ASSOCIATED WITH MICHAEL WILL  
CONTINUE ACROSS THE CAROLINAS AND THE MID-ATLANTIC TONIGHT, WITH  
LIFE-THREATENING FLASH FLOODING POSSIBLE, ESPECIALLY ACROSS PARTS  
OF VIRGINIA AND THE DELMARVA WHERE WPC HAS A HIGH RISK OF  
EXCESSIVE RAINFALL. STORM TOTAL RAINFALL OF 4 TO 7 INCHES, WITH  
LOCALLY HIGHER AMOUNTS, ARE POSSIBLE FROM WESTERN NORTH CAROLINA  
TO SOUTHEAST VIRGINIA. EXPECT TROPICAL-STORM FORCE WINDS TO  
CONTINUE ACROSS PARTS OF THE SOUTHERN MID-ATLANTIC TONIGHT, ALONG  
WITH A TORNADO THREAT. MOISTURE FROM MICHAEL WILL ALSO BE PULLED  
NORTHWARD INTO SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND THE EVENING AS A STRONG COLD  
FRONT MOVES IN FROM THE WEST.  
 
TROPICAL STORM SERGIO WILL MAKE LANDFALL BY FRIDAY ALONG THE BAJA  
CALIFORNIA COAST, WEAKENING AS IT MOVES EAST-NORTHEASTWARD INTO  
NORTHERN MEXICO. MOISTURE FROM SERGIO MAY BEGIN STREAMING INTO THE  
SOUTHWEST TOMORROW, WITH HEAVY RAINFALL AND FLASH FLOODING  
POSSIBLE. BY THE WEEKEND, THE REMNANTS SHOULD MOVE INTO THE  
SOUTHERN PLAINS WHICH WILL AGAIN BRING A THREAT FOR HEAVY RAINFALL  
AND FLASH FLOODING MAINLY ACROSS THE TEXAS PANHANDLE AND INTO  
OKLAHOMA. WPC HAS HIGHLIGHTED THIS REGION IN A SLIGHT TO MODERATE  
RISK FOR EXCESSIVE RAINFALL. PLEASE REFER TO THE NHC FOR THE  
LATEST INFORMATION ON BOTH MICHAEL AND SERGIO.  
 
ELSEWHERE, BROAD TROUGHING ACROSS THE WEST AND CENTRAL PARTS OF  
THE COUNTRY WILL CONTINUE POSSIBLY HEAVY MOUNTAIN SNOWS IN THE  
CENTRAL ROCKIES THIS EVENING, WITH RAIN OR EVEN A FEW SNOW  
FLURRIES MOVING INTO THE CENTRAL PLAINS ON FRIDAY. ALSO ACROSS THE  
NATIONS MID-SECTION, EXPECT AFTERNOON HIGH TEMPERATURES TO BE AS  
MUCH AS 10 TO 20 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL, WITH FREEZE WARNINGS AND  
FROST ADVISORIES IN EFFECT FOR PORTIONS OF THE UPPER MIDWEST.  
ACROSS THE SOUTHWEST, AN UPPER-LEVEL CLOSED LOW MOVING DOWN ALONG  
THE CALIFORNIA COAST WILL ALLOW FOR RAIN TO DEVELOP ACROSS  
SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA AND ARIZONA ON FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY.  
LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL IS POSSIBLE, ESPECIALLY ALONG THE FAVORED  
TERRAIN.  
 
SANTORELLI  
 
GRAPHICS AVAILABLE AT  
WWW.WPC.NCEP.NOAA.GOV/BASICWX/BASICWX_NDFD.PHP  

 
 
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