553  
FXUS01 KWBC 130808  
PMDSPD  
 
SHORT RANGE FORECAST DISCUSSION  
NWS WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD  
408 AM EDT SAT OCT 13 2018  
 
VALID 12Z SAT OCT 13 2018 - 12Z MON OCT 15 2018  
 
...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS OVER PARTS OF  
THE SOUTHERN PLAINS...  
 
...HEAVY RAIN POSSIBLE OVER PARTS OF THE SOUTHERN PLAINS/LOWER  
MISSISSIPPI VALLEY INTO PARTS OF THE TENNESSEE VALLEY...  
 
...HEAVY SNOWS POSSIBLE FROM THE NORTHERN TO SOUTHERN ROCKIES INTO  
THE CENTRAL TO SOUTHERN HIGH PLAINS...  
 
...TEMPERATURES WILL BE 20 TO 30 DEGREES BELOW AVERAGE OVER PARTS  
OF THE PLAINS INTO PARTS OF THE NORTHERN/CENTRAL ROCKIES...  
 
THE UPPER/MIDDLE-LEVEL ENERGY ONCE ASSOCIATED WITH SERGIO WILL  
RACE QUICKLY NORTHEASTWARD OFF THE NORTHERN MID-ATLANTIC/SOUTHERN  
NEW ENGLAND COAST BY SUNDAY AFTERNOON. MOISTURE FROM THE WESTERN  
GULF OF MEXICO WILL FLOW NORTHWARD OVER PARTS OF THE SOUTHERN  
PLAINS INTO THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY/TENNESSEE VALLEY BY  
SUNDAY EVENING. SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL DEVELOP OVER THE  
SOUTHERN TWO THIRDS OF TEXAS THAT WILL MOVE INTO PARTS OF THE  
LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY OVERNIGHT SATURDAY AND INTO THE TENNESSEE  
VALLEY BY SUNDAY EVENING. IN ADDITION, RAIN WILL DEVELOP OVER  
PARTS OF THE SOUTHERN HIGH PLAINS INTO THE TEXAS PANHANDLE THAT  
WILL MOVE INTO PARTS OF OKLAHOMA/LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY BY  
SATURDAY EVENING. THE RAIN WILL MOVE INTO PARTS OF THE  
OHIO/TENNESSEE VALLEYS BY SUNDAY MORNING AND INTO PARTS OF THE  
CENTRAL APPALACHIANS BY SUNDAY EVENING.  
 
MEANWHILE, AN UPPER-LEVEL LOW OVER SOUTHERN  
CALIFORNIA/NORTHWESTERN MEXICO WILL MOVE EASTWARD TO THE SOUTHERN  
ROCKIES BY SUNDAY MORNING AND INTERACT WITH ADDITIONAL UPPER-LEVEL  
ENERGY MOVING SOUTHEASTWARD FROM THE NORTHERN INTERMOUNTAIN  
REGION. THE ENERGY WILL AID IN PRODUCING RAIN WITH EMBEDDED  
THUNDERSTORMS OVER PARTS OF SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA AND THE SOUTHWEST  
THAT WILL MOVE INTO PARTS OF THE SOUTHERN ROCKIES ON SUNDAY. ON  
SUNDAY AS THE ENERGY MOVES INTO THE SOUTHERN ROCKIES, SHOWERS AND  
THUNDERSTORMS WILL BEGIN TO DEVELOP OVER PARTS OF THE SOUTHERN  
PLAINS SUNDAY AFTERNOON INTO MONDAY.  
 
THE AFOREMENTIONED UPPER-LEVEL ENERGY OVER THE NORTHERN  
INTERMOUNTAIN REGION WILL MOVE SOUTHEASTWARD INTO THE GREAT  
BASIN/CENTRAL ROCKIES BY SUNDAY EVENING. THE ENERGY WILL AID IN  
PRODUCING SNOW OVER PARTS OF THE NORTHERN ROCKIES/NORTHERN HIGH  
PLAINS THAT WILL MOVE SOUTHEASTWARD INTO THE CENTRAL  
ROCKIES/CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS OVERNIGHT SATURDAY THAT WILL EXPAND  
NORTHEASTWARD OVER PARTS OF THE CENTRAL PLAINS AND SOUTHWARD INTO  
PARTS OF THE SOUTHERN ROCKIES/SOUTHERN HIGH PLAINS BY SUNDAY  
EVENING. A FRONT AND ASSOCIATED UPPER-LEVEL ENERGY OVER THE  
NORTHERN PLAINS INTO THE CENTRAL ROCKIES WILL MOVE SOUTH AND  
EASTWARD TO THE GREAT LAKES/WESTERN OHIO VALLEY INTO THE LOWER  
MISSISSIPPI VALLEY/SOUTHERN PLAINS BY SUNDAY EVENING INTO MONDAY.  
THE SYSTEM WILL PRODUCE RAIN AND SNOW OVER PARTS OF THE UPPER  
MISSISSIPPI VALLEY/NORTHERN PLAINS. THE SNOW WILL WANE OVER PARTS  
OF THE UPPER MIDWEST OVERNIGHT SATURDAY AS RAIN DEVELOPS ALONG THE  
BOUNDARY OVER PARTS OF THE UPPER GREAT LAKES/UPPER MISSISSIPPI  
VALLEY AND INTO PARTS OF THE MIDDLE MISSISSIPPI VALLEY/CENTRAL  
PLAINS BY SUNDAY MORNING. THE RAIN WILL MOVE INTO PARTS OF THE  
GREAT LAKES/MIDDLE MISSISSIPPI VALLEY/SOUTHERN PLAINS BY SUNDAY  
EVENING.  
 
ELSEWHERE, UPPER-LEVEL ENERGY OVER THE EASTERN OHIO  
VALLEY/NORTHERN MID-ATLANTIC WILL MOVE EASTWARD OF THE NORTHEAST  
COAST BY SATURDAY EVENING. THE ENERGY WILL AID IN DEVELOPING RAIN  
OVER PARTS OF THE LOWER GREAT LAKES/NORTHEAST INTO PARTS OF THE  
CENTRAL APPALACHIANS/MID-ATLANTIC THAT WILL, LIKEWISE, MOVE OFF  
THE NORTHEAST/NORTHERN MID-ATLANTIC COAST BY SATURDAY NIGHT.  
 
ZIEGENFELDER  
 
GRAPHICS AVAILABLE AT  
WWW.WPC.NCEP.NOAA.GOV/BASICWX/BASICWX_NDFD.PHP  

 
 
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