573  
FXUS01 KWBC 131846  
PMDSPD  
 
SHORT RANGE FORECAST DISCUSSION  
NWS WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD  
245 PM EDT SAT OCT 13 2018  
 
VALID 00Z SUN OCT 14 2018 - 00Z TUE OCT 16 2018  
 
...HEAVY RAINFALL AND SEVERE WEATHER EXPECTED ACROSS THE SOUTHERN  
PLAINS WHICH COULD LEAD TO FLASH FLOODING...  
 
...HEAVY SNOWS POSSIBLE ALONG THE CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN ROCKIES IN  
ADDITION TO THE CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS...  
 
...COLD, AUTUMN AIR WILL SPREAD ACROSS THE WESTERN AND CENTRAL  
U.S. FOR THE START OF THIS WEEK...  
 
AN ACTIVE PATTERN IS UNDERWAY ACROSS THE SOUTHERN PLAINS AND INTO  
THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY AS A ELONGATED TROUGH DIGS ACROSS THE  
WESTERN U.S. THIS TROUGH IS BRINGING TROPICAL MOISTURE ACROSS  
THESE REGIONS AND GIVING WAY TO SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ALONG  
THE RED RIVER VALLEY, CENTRAL TEXAS AND MOST OF OKLAHOMA. FOR  
TODAY, THIS CLUSTER OF THUNDERSTORMS IS EXPECTED TO SPREAD FROM  
NORTH TEXAS INTO THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY TONIGHT. SOME OF  
THESE THUNDERSTORMS ARE CAPABLE OF PRODUCING FLASH FLOODING AS WPC  
HAS HIGHLIGHTED A MODERATE RISK FOR TODAY. IN ADDITION, SEVERE  
WEATHER WILL ALSO BE A HAZARD--WHICH SPC HAS ISSUED A SLIGHT RISK  
FOR GENERALLY THE SAME REGION. BY TOMORROW, ANOTHER ROUND OF  
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED FOR THIS AREA--WHICH WILL  
BRING ANOTHER MODERATE RISK OF FLASH FLOODING AND A SLIGHT CHANCE  
OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS.  
 
MID-LEVEL ENERGY ASSOCIATED WITH THAT ELONGATED TROUGH WILL DROP  
SOUTHWARD FROM THE NORTHERN ROCKIES TO THE CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN  
ROCKIES. AS A COLD FRONT PUSHES PAST THIS AREA, COLD TEMPERATURES  
WILL SETTLE AND HEAVY SNOW WILL SPREAD FROM THE NORTHERN ROCKIES  
IN IDAHO AND WYOMING TO THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF WYOMING, COLORADO,  
AND NORTHERN NEW MEXICO TONIGHT INTO SUNDAY. SNOW WILL ALSO  
INCREASE OVER THE CENTRAL PLAINS IN NEBRASKA AND KANSAS. BY  
MONDAY, SNOW WILL DISSIPATE IN THE NORTHERN PORTIONS OF THESE  
REGIONS AS MOISTURE BECOMES LIMITED; HOWEVER, LINGERING SNOWS  
ACROSS THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS OF SOUTHERN COLORADO AND NORTHERN NEW  
MEXICO WILL BE POSSIBLE.  
 
AS A STRONG COLD FRONT SWEEPS ACROSS THE WESTERN AND CENTRAL U.S.,  
COLD TEMPERATURES WILL FOLLOW. ON SUNDAY, HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL  
NOT ESCAPE THE LOW 40S ACROSS THE NORTHERN AND CENTRAL PLAINS IN  
ADDITION TO THE UPPER MIDWEST--WHICH ARE 20 TO 30 DEGREES BELOW  
AVERAGE. AS THE COLD FRONT PRESSES EASTWARD OVER THE SOUTHERN  
PLAINS AND MISSISSIPPI VALLEY, HIGH TEMPERATURES FROM THE  
DALLAS-FORT WORTH REGION TO THE BIG BEND WILL SETTLE INTO THE  
MID-UPPER 40S. SIMILAR TEMPERATURES WILL ALSO BE FELT FOR THE  
MIDDLE MISSISSIPPI VALLEY.  
 
REINHART  
 
GRAPHICS AVAILABLE AT  
WWW.WPC.NCEP.NOAA.GOV/BASICWX/BASICWX_NDFD.PHP  

 
 
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