324  
FXUS01 KWBC 162000  
PMDSPD  
 
SHORT RANGE FORECAST DISCUSSION  
NWS WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD  
359 PM EDT TUE OCT 16 2018  
 
VALID 00Z WED OCT 17 2018 - 00Z FRI OCT 19 2018  
 
...HEAVY RAIN POSSIBLE OVER TEXAS THROUGH TONIGHT AS MOISTURE FROM  
TROPICAL STORM TARA BEING DRAWN NORTHWARD...  
 
...WINTRY PRECIPITATION OVER THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS OF ARIZONA AND  
NEW MEXICO WILL SPREAD NORTHWARD INTO THE CENTRAL ROCKIES...  
 
AN UPPER-LEVEL VORTEX IS FORECAST TO MOVE VERY SLOWLY NORTHWARD  
ACROSS THE SOUTHWESTERN U.S. DURING THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS.  
PERSISTENT SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW AHEAD OF THIS VORTEX WILL DRAW  
TROPICAL MOISTURE NORTHWARD FROM TROPICAL STORM TARA, CURRENTLY  
LOCATED JUST OFFSHORE FROM MANZANILLO, MEXICO. AREAS OF MODERATE  
TO HEAVY RAIN ALREADY FALLING ACROSS TEXAS INTO LOUISIANA ARE  
EXPECTED TO CONTINUE THROUGH TONIGHT, LEADING TO THE POSSIBILITY  
OF FLASH FLOODING ACROSS CENTRAL TEXAS. THIS STREAM OF TROPICAL  
MOISTURE FROM THE EASTERN PACIFIC WILL APPEAR TO CONTINUE INTO  
THURSDAY WITH THE HIGHEST CHANCE OF HEAVY RAIN SHIFTING VERY  
SLOWLY FROM CENTRAL TEXAS INTO NORTHEASTERN TEXAS. MEANWHILE,  
SOME HEAVY RAIN COULD DEVELOP ALONG THE TEXAS COAST ON THURSDAY  
NEAR AN INVERTED TROUGH WHEN A STATIONARY FRONT OFFSHORE RETURNS  
AS A WARM FRONT.  
 
MEANWHILE, COLD AIR ASSOCIATED WITH THE CORE OF THE UPPER-LEVEL  
VORTEX IS CURRENTLY SUPPORTING WINTRY PRECIPITATION ACROSS THE  
HIGHER ELEVATIONS OF ARIZONA AND NEW MEXICO. THE PRECIPITATION  
WILL SLOWLY PROGRESS NORTHWARD INTO THE CENTRAL ROCKIES THROUGH  
THURSDAY, WITH THE POSSIBILITY OF HEAVY SNOW OVER THE HIGHER  
ELEVATIONS IN SOUTHWEST COLORADO ON WEDNESDAY.  
 
FARTHER NORTH, A COLDER SURGE OF CANADIAN AIR WILL SUPPORT SNOW  
SHOWERS TO SPREAD FROM THE UPPER GREAT LAKES INTO LOWER MICHIGAN  
TONIGHT. BY WEDNESDAY NIGHT, SNOW SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP  
DOWNWIND OF THE LOWER GREAT LAKES, SPREADING INTO INTERIOR NEW  
ENGLAND OVERNIGHT BEHIND A COLD FRONT.  
 
ELSEWHERE, SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE MID-ATLANTIC  
SHOULD PUSH STEADILY SOUTHWARD INTO FLORIDA BY THURSDAY NEAR AND  
AHEAD OF ANOTHER COLD FRONT. GENERALLY FINE CONDITIONS WILL  
PREVAIL ACROSS THE REMAINDER OF THE WESTERN TO NORTHERN U.S. WITH  
A WARMING TREND EXPECTED ACROSS THE NORTHERN PLAINS.  
 
KONG  
 
GRAPHICS AVAILABLE AT  
WWW.WPC.NCEP.NOAA.GOV/BASICWX/BASICWX_NDFD.PHP  

 
 
CLICK HERE TO GO TO PREVIOUS BULLETINS.

The Nexlab HPC Page Main Text Page