083  
FXUS01 KWBC 171848  
PMDSPD  
 
SHORT RANGE FORECAST DISCUSSION  
NWS WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD  
246 PM EDT WED OCT 17 2018  
 
VALID 00Z THU OCT 18 2018 - 00Z SAT OCT 20 2018  
 
...VERY COOL AND UNSETTLED WEATHER WILL PERSIST ACROSS THE  
SOUTHERN PLAINS WITH MORE AREAS OF HEAVY RAIN AND FLASH FLOODING  
EXPECTED...  
 
A FRONT SETTLING SLOWLY SOUTH DOWN ACROSS THE FLORIDA PENINSULA  
WILL EXTEND WEST OUT OVER THE GULF OF MEXICO AND THEN SHOULD BE  
WEDGED WELL SOUTHWEST OVER MAINLAND MEXICO GOING THROUGH THE  
REMAINDER OF THE WEEK. PLENTY OF CLOUDS AND AREAS OF RAINFALL ARE  
EXPECTED NORTH OF THIS FRONT EXTENDING FROM THE SOUTHERN PLAINS  
EAST ACROSS AREAS OF THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY. SOME OF THE  
HEAVIEST RAIN WILL BE FOCUSED OVER CENTRAL TEXAS INCLUDING THE  
HILL COUNTRY WHERE THERE WILL REMAIN A THREAT FOR SOME FLASH  
FLOODING. THE SOIL CONDITIONS HERE ARE SATURATED, AND ANY  
ADDITIONAL RAINFALL WILL AGGRAVATE ONGOING FLOODING CONCERNS. THE  
EXPANSIVE AREA OF CLOUDINESS AND RAIN WILL ALSO CONTINUE TO KEEP  
TEMPERATURES WELL BELOW NORMAL FOR THIS TIME OF THE YEAR, AND IN  
SOME CASES, THE HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL BE 20 TO 30 DEGREES BELOW  
AVERAGE.  
 
MEANWHILE, A NEW COLD FRONT WILL BE CROSSING THE MID-ATLANTIC AND  
NORTHEAST THROUGH TONIGHT AS A LARGE AREA OF COOL AND DRY HIGH  
PRESSURE NOSES ACROSS THE OHIO AND TENNESSEE VALLEYS AND TOWARD  
THE EASTERN SEABOARD THROUGH THURSDAY AND FRIDAY. THE COLD AIR  
DROPPING SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES REGION THROUGH TONIGHT  
AND EARLY THURSDAY IS LIKELY TO RESULT IN SOME LAKE-EFFECT RAIN  
AND SNOW SHOWERS FOR AREAS DOWNWIND OF THE LAKES. BY LATER  
THURSDAY, THIS WILL TAPER OFF, AND WARMER TEMPERATURES SHOULD THEN  
BEGIN TO SPREAD BACK NORTH UP ACROSS THE CENTRAL AND NORTHERN  
PLAINS, INCLUDING THE UPPER MIDWEST WHERE TEMPERATURES WILL GO  
BACK ABOVE NORMAL. THE MILDER TREND THOUGH WILL BE SHORT-LIVED AS  
A NEW COLD FRONT THEN DROPS SOUTH FROM CANADA BY FRIDAY ACROSS THE  
MIDWEST. MOISTURE SURGING NORTHEAST AHEAD OF THIS FRONT WILL ALLOW  
FOR AN AREA OF SHOWERS TO DEVELOP ALONG AND AHEAD OF IT BY LATE  
FRIDAY MOVING INTO THE EASTERN U.S.  
 
ELSEWHERE, THE WESTERN U.S. SHOULD GENERALLY SEE VERY DRY AND  
TRANQUIL WEATHER WITH TEMPERATURES NEAR OR SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL.  
ONE EXCEPTION WILL BE DOWN NEAR THE FOUR CORNERS REGION, WHERE  
PROXIMITY TO AN UPPER LOW WILL MAINTAIN MORE CLOUDINESS AND A BIT  
COOLER TEMPERATURES.  
 
ORRISON  
 
GRAPHICS AVAILABLE AT  
WWW.WPC.NCEP.NOAA.GOV/BASICWX/BASICWX_NDFD.PHP  

 
 
CLICK HERE TO GO TO PREVIOUS BULLETINS.

The Nexlab HPC Page Main Text Page