092  
FXUS01 KWBC 182000  
PMDSPD  
 
SHORT RANGE FORECAST DISCUSSION  
NWS WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD  
359 PM EDT THU OCT 18 2018  
 
VALID 00Z FRI OCT 19 2018 - 00Z SUN OCT 21 2018  
 
...HEAVY RAINFALL AND LOCALIZED FLASH FLOODING CONTINUING INTO  
FRIDAY ACROSS PORTIONS OF CENTRAL TEXAS...  
 
...SCATTERED RAIN WILL ACCOMPANY A COLD FRONT AS IT PASSES THROUGH  
THE OHIO VALLEY AND THE NORTHEAST...  
 
...CHILLY OVERNIGHT TEMPERATURES ON THURSDAY RESULTING IN SOME  
FROST ADVISORIES AND FREEZE WARNINGS FOR PARTS OF THE LOWER OHIO  
VALLEY AND NORTHERN MID-ATLANTIC...  
 
MOISTURE OVERRIDING A STATIONARY FRONT IN THE NORTHERN GULF OF  
MEXICO WILL CONTINUE TO PRODUCE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS  
TEXAS, WITH POCKETS OF HEAVY RAINFALL POSSIBLE. EXCESSIVE RAINFALL  
AND FLASH FLOODING WILL BE POSSIBLE, ESPECIALLY IN PORTIONS OF THE  
ALREADY VERY SATURATED HILL COUNTRY. FLASH FLOOD WATCHES AND  
WARNINGS REMAIN IN EFFECT THROUGH FRIDAY MORNING. A SECONDARY AREA  
OF HEAVY RAINFALL IS ALSO EXPECTED ALONG THE SOUTHERN AND CENTRAL  
TEXAS GULF COAST, WHICH IS SHOULD PERSIST THROUGH THE REST OF THE  
WEEK AS THE BOUNDARY IN THE GULF OF MEXICO EVENTUALLY SHIFTS VERY  
SLOWLY NORTHWARD. SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL ALSO  
PERSIST THROUGH THE SHORT RANGE PERIOD ACROSS NORTHERN FLORIDA  
NEAR THE EASTERN EXTENT OF THIS STATIONARY FRONT.  
 
A COLD FRONT DROPPING INTO THE NORTHERN TIER BY FRIDAY WILL ALLOW  
FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF SCATTERED RAIN SHOWERS ALONG THE BOUNDARY  
AS IT SHIFTS EASTWARD THROUGH THE MIDWEST ON FRIDAY, AND INTO THE  
NORTHEAST AND MID-ATLANTIC BY SATURDAY. LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL IS  
POSSIBLE IN SPOTS, BUT THIS BOUNDARY SHOULD BE FAIRLY QUICK MOVING  
WHICH WOULD LIMIT ANY THREAT FOR FLASH FLOODING. EXPECT SHOWERS TO  
ALSO EXTEND SOUTHWARD INTO PORTIONS OF THE MISSISSIPPI VALLEY AND  
SOUTHERN PLAINS AS LINGERING GULF OF MEXICO MOISTURE GETS PULLED  
NORTHWARD TOWARDS THE FRONT. COLD AIR FILTERING IN BEHIND THE  
BOUNDARY MAY ALSO ALLOW FOR LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS ACROSS THE GREAT  
LAKES AND THE UPPER MIDWEST.  
 
TEMPERATURE WISE, BROAD UPPER LEVEL TROUGHING AND SURFACE HIGH  
PRESSURE WILL KEEP TEMPERATURES NEAR OR SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL FOR  
THIS TIME OF THE YEAR ACROSS THE EASTERN STATES. NUMEROUS FROST  
ADVISORIES AND POCKETS OF FREEZE WARNINGS ARE IN EFFECT FROM THE  
LOWER OHIO VALLEY TO THE NORTHERN MID-ATLANTIC AND PARTS OF THE  
NORTHEAST DUE TO NEAR FREEZING OVERNIGHT LOWS TONIGHT. A COLD  
FRONT PASSING THROUGH THE NATIONS MID-SECTION WILL ALSO KEEP  
TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE SHORT RANGE PERIOD CHILLY, WITH BELOW  
NORMAL TEMPERATURE ANOMALIES OF 5 TO 15 DEGREES POSSIBLE,  
ESPECIALLY ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE UPPER GREAT LAKES AND THE  
SOUTHERN PLAINS. OUT WEST, UPPER LEVEL RIDGING SHOULD KEEP  
TEMPERATURES RATHER WARM FOR THIS TIME OF THE YEAR.  
 
SANTORELLI  
 
GRAPHICS AVAILABLE AT  
WWW.WPC.NCEP.NOAA.GOV/BASICWX/BASICWX_NDFD.PHP  

 
 
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