537  
FXUS01 KWBC 190759  
PMDSPD  
 
SHORT RANGE FORECAST DISCUSSION  
NWS WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD  
358 AM EDT FRI OCT 19 2018  
 
VALID 12Z FRI OCT 19 2018 - 12Z SUN OCT 21 2018  
 
...HEAVY RAINFALL AND LOCALIZED FLASH FLOODING EXPECTED ACROSS  
CENTRAL AND SOUTH TEXAS...  
 
...SCATTERED RAIN ASSOCIATED WITH A COLD FRONT PASSING THROUGH THE  
NORTHEAST TO THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY...  
 
THE WET PATTERN CONTINUES FOR CENTRAL AND SOUTH TEXAS AS MOISTURE  
OVERRIDES A STATIONARY FRONT HUGGING THE WESTERN GULF COAST. THE  
HEAVIEST RAINFALL TODAY WILL BE ALONG THE MIDDLE TEXAS COAST IN  
ADDITION TO THE DFW REGION SOUTHWARD INTO THE HILL COUNTRY AND  
SOUTH CENTRAL TEXAS. BECAUSE OF THIS, FLASH FLOOD WATCHES AND  
FLOOD WARNINGS REMAIN IN EFFECT. BY SATURDAY, SCATTERED SHOWERS  
AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL OCCUR IN CENTRAL AND SOUTH TEXAS; HOWEVER,  
THE BULK OF HEAVY RAIN WILL BE IN DEEP SOUTH TEXAS. THIS REGION OF  
TEXAS CAN ALSO EXPECT THE HEAVY RAIN TO CONTINUE INTO SUNDAY.  
FLASH FLOODING WILL BE A CONCERN FOR THESE AREAS.  
 
A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS THE UPPER MIDWEST AND GREAT LAKES  
TODAY--APPROACHING THE NORTHEAST BY SATURDAY. SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED  
ALONG THE FRONT, SOME OF WHICH COULD PRODUCE LOCALLY HEAVY  
RAINFALL. ADDITIONALLY, AS LINGERING MOISTURE FROM THE GULF OF  
MEXICO GETS PULLED NORTHWARD TOWARDS THIS FRONT, SHOWERS ARE  
EXPECTED AHEAD OF THE FRONT LATER TONIGHT AND INTO EARLY SATURDAY  
MORNING WHICH WILL EXTEND FROM THE CENTRAL APPALACHIANS TO THE  
LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY. COLD AIR FILTERING IN BEHIND THE  
BOUNDARY MAY ALSO ALLOW FOR LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS ACROSS THE GREAT  
LAKES AND THE UPPER MIDWEST THROUGH THE WEEKEND.  
 
BROAD UPPER LEVEL TROUGHING AND SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL KEEP  
MOST OF THE EASTERN HALF OF THE U.S. BELOW NORMAL FOR HIGH  
TEMPERATURES. AFTER A VERY CHILLY START TO FRIDAY MORNING FOR THE  
MID-ATLANTIC, NORTHEAST AND CENTRAL APPALACHIANS, WHERE SOME OF  
THE AREAS ARE RECEIVING FREEZE WARNINGS, LOW TEMPERATURES WILL  
REBOUND TO NEAR NORMAL BY THE WEEKEND. TEXAS CAN ALSO EXPECT BELOW  
NORMAL TEMPERATURES DUE TO THE ACTIVE, WET PATTERN IN PLACE. OUT  
WEST, UPPER LEVEL RIDGING WILL PROMOTE WARMER THAN NORMAL  
TEMPERATURES--IN SOME PLACES ALMOST 20 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL FOR  
PARTS OF THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST AND INTERMOUNTAIN WEST. BECAUSE OF  
THESE WARM TEMPERATURES, LOW HUMIDITIES AND GUSTY SANTA ANA WINDS,  
FIRE WEATHER REMAINS CRITICAL FOR PORTIONS OF SOUTHERN  
CALIFORNIA--INCLUDING THE GREATER LOS ANGELES AREA TODAY.  
 
REINHART/SANTORELLI  
 
GRAPHICS AVAILABLE AT  
WWW.WPC.NCEP.NOAA.GOV/BASICWX/BASICWX_NDFD.PHP  

 
 
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