981  
FXUS01 KWBC 191952  
PMDSPD  
 
SHORT RANGE FORECAST DISCUSSION  
NWS WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD  
352 PM EDT FRI OCT 19 2018  
 
VALID 00Z SAT OCT 20 2018 - 00Z MON OCT 22 2018  
 
...HEAVY RAINFALL AND LOCALIZED FLASH FLOODING POSSIBLE ACROSS  
PARTS OF CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN TEXAS...  
 
...NEAR RECORD LOW DAILY HIGH TEMPERATURES POSSIBLE ACROSS THE  
EAST AND SOUTH, WHILE THE WEST IS WARM AND FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS  
CONTINUE IN PARTS OF SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA...  
 
MOISTURE OVERRIDING A QUASI-STATIONARY FRONT HUGGING THE WESTERN  
GULF COAST SHOULD CONTINUE TO PRODUCE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS,  
CAPABLE OF LOCALIZED FLASH FLOODING, ACROSS PARTS OF DEEP SOUTH  
TEXAS THIS WEEKEND, WITH THE BEST FOCUS FOR HEAVY RAINFALL ALONG  
THE MIDDLE AND SOUTHERN TEXAS COAST. TO THE NORTH, GULF OF MEXICO  
MOISTURE BEING PULLED NORTHWARD ALONG A COLD FRONT WILL ALLOW FOR  
RAIN SHOWERS FROM THE NORTHEAST/MID-ATLANTIC TO THE SOUTHERN  
APPALACHIANS AND THE SOUTHERN PLAINS. THIS FRONT SHOULD BE VERY  
QUICK MOVING SO WIDESPREAD FLASH FLOODING IS NOT A CONCERN, BUT  
LOCALIZED HEAVY RAINFALL/FLASH FLOODING CANNOT BE RULED OUT,  
PARTICULARLY ACROSS ALREADY VERY SATURATED PARTS OF CENTRAL TEXAS.  
COLD AIR FILTERING IN BEHIND THE FRONT MAY ALSO ALLOW FOR LIGHT  
SNOW SHOWERS ACROSS THE UPPER MIDWEST, GREAT LAKES, AND NORTHERN  
APPALACHIANS THROUGH THE WEEKEND.  
 
FOLLOWING THE COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE ON SATURDAY, TEMPERATURES FROM  
THE EASTERN U.S. TO THE SOUTHERN PLAINS SHOULD BE RATHER CHILLY AS  
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE SETTLES IN. A HANDFUL OF RECORD OR NEAR  
RECORD LOW AFTERNOON HIGHS ON SUNDAY ARE POSSIBLE FROM THE  
NORTHEAST TO THE SOUTHERN APPALACHIANS AND BACK INTO THE SOUTHERN  
PLAINS WITH TEMPERATURES FORECAST TO BE 10 TO 20 DEGREES BELOW  
NORMAL. MEANWHILE, UPPER LEVEL RIDGING WILL CONTINUE TO PROMOTE  
WARMER THAN NORMAL TEMPERATURES WITH ANOMALIES AS MUCH AS 10 TO 20  
DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL OUT WEST. THESE WARM TEMPERATURES, COMBINED  
WITH LOW HUMIDITIES AND GUSTY SANTA ANA WINDS, WILL CONTINUE THE  
ELEVATED TO CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER THREAT FOR PORTIONS OF SOUTHERN  
CALIFORNIA, INCLUDING THE GREATER LOS ANGELES AND SAN DIEGO  
REGIONS.  
 
SANTORELLI  
 
GRAPHICS AVAILABLE AT  
WWW.WPC.NCEP.NOAA.GOV/BASICWX/BASICWX_NDFD.PHP  

 
 
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