458  
FXUS01 KWBC 200724  
PMDSPD  
 
SHORT RANGE FORECAST DISCUSSION  
NWS WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD  
323 AM EDT SAT OCT 20 2018  
 
VALID 12Z SAT OCT 20 2018 - 12Z MON OCT 22 2018  
 
...HEAVY RAINFALL AND LOCALIZED FLASH FLOODING POSSIBLE ACROSS  
PARTS OF CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN TEXAS...  
 
...COOLER CONDITIONS SETTLE ACROSS THE EASTERN U.S. THIS WEEKEND  
AS ELEVATED FIRE WEATHER FOR SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA CONTINUES...  
 
HEAVY RAIN THAT HAS PLAGUED CENTRAL TEXAS WILL BEGIN TO WIND DOWN  
TODAY--WITH SOME LINGERING LIGHT SHOWERS. HOWEVER, THERE STILL  
REMAINS TWO AREAS OF HEAVY RAINFALL THAT WILL IMPACT THE STATE. A  
DEEP POCKET OF MOISTURE WILL REMAIN ALONG THE MIDDLE AND DEEP  
SOUTH TEXAS COAST. FOR TODAY, THE HEAVIEST RAINFALL WILL REMAIN  
JUST OFF THE COAST. THE BIG BEND REGION WILL ALSO SEE SHOWERS AND  
THUNDERSTORMS THAT COULD LEAD TO LOCALIZED FLOODING. LATER ON  
SUNDAY AND INTO MONDAY, SOUTH-SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW WILL PULL  
MOISTURE INLAND ACROSS DEEP SOUTH TEXAS AND WILL INTERACT WITH THE  
COASTAL TROUGH. AS A RESULT, HEAVY RAIN IS EXPECTED ALONG WITH THE  
POSSIBILITY OF FLASH FLOODING--WITH FLASH FLOOD WATCHES ISSUED FOR  
THE BROWNSVILLE AREA.  
 
ELSEWHERE, SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE MOVING ALONG  
THE COLD FRONT TODAY FROM THE MID-ATLANTIC TO THE LOWER  
MISSISSIPPI VALLEY. BECAUSE THIS FRONT WILL BE QUICK MOVING, FLASH  
FLOODING WILL NOT BE A CONCERN BUT THERE COULD BE ISOLATED HEAVY  
DOWNPOURS. THE COLD FRONT WILL EXIT THE EAST COAST LATE SATURDAY  
NIGHT AND WILL PUSH SOUTHWARD ACROSS NORTHERN FLORIDA--AND WITH IT  
LIGHT SHOWERS. THIS BOUNDARY WILL MAKE ITS WAY TOWARD THE FLORIDA  
KEYS BEFORE STALLING ON MONDAY. CONSEQUENTLY, SHOWERS AND  
THUNDERSTORMS FOR SOUTH FLORIDA AND THE KEYS ON SUNDAY NIGHT  
THROUGH MONDAY. FARTHER NORTH IN THE UPPER MIDWEST, GREAT LAKES,  
AND NORTHERN APPALACHIANS, COLD AIR FILTERING BEHIND THE FRONT MAY  
ALLOW FOR LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS ACROSS THESE REGIONS.  
 
AS SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS ACROSS MOST OF THE EASTERN U.S.  
BEHIND THE COLD FRONT, HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL BE 10 TO 20 DEGREES  
BELOW NORMAL. FLORIDA WILL REMAIN QUITE WARM TODAY; HOWEVER, AS  
THE COLD FRONT FINALLY PUSHES SOUTH, THE NORTHERN PORTION OF THE  
STATE WILL HAVE HIGH TEMPERATURES DIP NEARLY 10 DEGREES BELOW  
NORMAL WITH THE SOUTHERN HALF OF THE STATE EXPERIENCING NEAR  
NORMAL TEMPERATURES ON SUNDAY. MEANWHILE, UPPER LEVEL RIDING OVER  
THE WESTERN U.S. WILL KEEP CONDITIONS MUCH WARMER THAN NORMAL  
THROUGH THE WEEKEND AND INTO THE BEGINNING OF THE WORKWEEK. THESE  
CONDITIONS COMBINED WITH LOW HUMIDITIES AND GUSTY SANTA ANA WINDS  
WILL LEAD TO ELEVATED FIRE WEATHER THREAT FOR SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA,  
INCLUDING THE GREATER LOS ANGELES AND SAN DIEGO REGIONS.  
 
REINHART  
 
GRAPHICS AVAILABLE AT  
WWW.WPC.NCEP.NOAA.GOV/BASICWX/BASICWX_NDFD.PHP  

 
 
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