525  
FXUS01 KWBC 201932  
PMDSPD  
 
SHORT RANGE FORECAST DISCUSSION  
NWS WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD  
331 PM EDT SAT OCT 20 2018  
 
VALID 00Z SUN OCT 21 2018 - 00Z TUE OCT 23 2018  
 
...HEAVY RAINFALL THREAT THE LOWER TEXAS COAST AND RIO GRANDE  
VALLEY...  
   
..MUCH COLDER AIR ACROSS THE MIDWEST AND EASTERN U.S.
 
 
A SLOW-MOVING FRONTAL BOUNDARY EXTENDING FROM THE SOUTHERN  
MID-ATLANTIC REGION TO THE GULF COAST REGION WILL CONTINUE TO  
PROVIDE THE FOCUS FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS AS IT PUSHES  
SLOWLY SOUTHEAST THIS EVENING. AS THE FRONT BEGINS TO MOVE  
ONSHORE AND HIGH PRESSURE SETTLES IN, MOST AREAS FROM THE SOUTHERN  
PLAINS TO THE MID ATLANTIC REGION ARE EXPECTED TO SEE DRIER  
CONDITIONS THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEKEND AND INTO THE EARLY  
PART OF NEXT WEEK. HOWEVER, AS THE FRONT STALLS OVER THE  
NORTHWESTERN GULF OF MEXICO, THE LOWER TEXAS COAST AND RIO GRANDE  
VALLEY ARE EXPECTED TO BE A PRIMARY EXCEPTION, WITH PERSISTENT  
MOIST ONSHORE WINDS NORTH OF THE BOUNDARY SUPPORTING PERIODS OF  
LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN BEGINNING LATER TODAY AND CONTINUING THROUGH  
SUNDAY. GIVEN RECENT HEAVY RAINS AND WET SOIL CONDITIONS, A  
FLASH-FLOOD WATCH IS EFFECT FOR THIS AREA BEGINNING THIS EVENING  
AND CONTINUING THROUGH EARLY MONDAY. AN ORGANIZING AREA OF LOW  
PRESSURE ALONG THE FRONT MAY BEGIN TO TRACK TO THE NORTH,  
EXTENDING THIS HEAVY RAINFALL THREAT FURTHER NORTH ALONG THE TEXAS  
COAST ON MONDAY.  
 
FURTHER TO THE NORTH, A VIGOROUS REINFORCING SHOT OF COLDER AIR  
WILL PUSH SOUTHEAST FROM THE UPPER MIDWEST AND GREAT LAKES INTO  
THE OHIO VALLEY AND CENTRAL APPALACHIANS THIS EVENING AND  
OVERNIGHT. IN ADDITION TO USHERING IN SOME OF THE COLDEST AIR OF  
THE SEASON SO FAR, SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS AND GUSTY WINDS CAN  
BE EXPECTED AS THIS SYSTEM PUSHES THROUGH. TEMPERATURES FROM THE  
GREAT LAKES TO THE SOUTHERN PLAINS AND THROUGH MUCH OF THE EASTERN  
U.S. ARE EXPECTED TO BE BELOW-NORMAL, WITH SOME AREAS WELL  
BELOW-NORMAL ON SUNDAY. FREEZE WARNINGS AND FROST ADVISORIES FOR  
SUNDAY MORNING CURRENTLY EXTEND FROM PORTIONS OF EASTERN KANSAS  
AND OKLAHOMA TO THE SOUTHERN APPALACHIANS.  
 
IN THE WEST, A BROAD UPPER LEVEL SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO MOVE INTO  
THE SOUTHWESTERN U.S., BRINGING TEMPERATURES DOWN WHILE SUPPORTING  
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE SOUTHWEST AND  
GREAT BASIN BEGINNING LATER TODAY AND CONTINUING INTO EARLY NEXT  
WEEK. MEANWHILE, DRY CONDITIONS AND ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES ARE  
FORECAST TO CONTINUE FROM NORTHERN CALIFORNIA AND THE PACIFIC  
NORTHWEST INTO THE NORTHERN AND CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS.  
 
PEREIRA  
 
GRAPHICS AVAILABLE AT  
WWW.WPC.NCEP.NOAA.GOV/BASICWX/BASICWX_NDFD.PHP  

 
 
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