951  
FXUS01 KWBC 210759  
PMDSPD  
 
SHORT RANGE FORECAST DISCUSSION  
NWS WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD  
358 AM EDT SUN OCT 21 2018  
 
VALID 12Z SUN OCT 21 2018 - 12Z TUE OCT 23 2018  
   
..HEAVY RAINFALL THREAT CONTINUES FOR SOUTH TEXAS
 
 
...BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES FOR THE EASTERN U.S. AS MOST OF THE  
WESTERN U.S. STAYS WARM AND DRY...  
 
AS THE COLD FRONT THAT PUSHED ACROSS THE EAST COAST CONTINUES TO  
MOVE FARTHER INTO THE ATLANTIC, SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD  
ACROSS THE EASTERN U.S. DRY CONDITIONS WILL SETTLE FOR THE SECOND  
HALF OF THE WEEKEND AND INTO THE EARLY WORKWEEK. HOWEVER, A MIX OF  
LIGHT SNOW AND RAIN SHOWERS CAN BE EXPECTED FOR THE LOWER GREAT  
LAKES TODAY. MOST OF THE RAINFALL ACTIVITY WILL OCCUR IN SOUTH  
TEXAS AS A STATIONARY FRONT STAYS PUT OFF THE MIDDLE AND SOUTH  
TEXAS COAST. COPIOUS AMOUNTS OF MOISTURE WILL BE PULLED ACROSS THE  
RIO GRANDE VALLEY, AND WILL GIVE WAY TO SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.  
THE HEAVIEST RAINFALL WILL OCCUR OFF THE COAST IN MEXICO; HOWEVER,  
SOME LOCALIZED FLOODING IS POSSIBLE NEAR THE TEXAS/MEXICAN BORDER  
ADJACENT TO THE COAST. CONSEQUENTLY, A FLASH FLOOD WATCH IS IN  
EFFECT FOR THE BROWNSVILLE REGION. BY MONDAY, LOW PRESSURE WILL  
BEGIN TO LIFT NORTHWARD--THUS, THE HEAVY RAINFALL WILL ALSO LIFT  
NORTH ACROSS SOUTH-CENTRAL TEXAS AND INTO SOUTHEAST TEXAS. THIS  
AXIS OF HEAVY RAINFALL WILL BEGIN TO SHIFT EASTWARD TOWARD THE  
CENTRAL GULF COAST BY TUESDAY. SOME OF THIS ACTIVITY COULD PRODUCE  
LOCALIZED FLASH FLOODING.  
 
HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE TO STAY BELOW NORMAL ACROSS THE  
EASTERN AND SOUTHERN U.S. TODAY AND OVERNIGHT. THE FOOTHILLS OF  
NORTH CAROLINA WILL RECEIVE THE FIRST FREEZE OF THE YEAR OVERNIGHT  
SUNDAY AND INTO MONDAY--WITH MUCH OF THE TENNESSEE VALLEY AND  
PORTIONS OF THE SOUTHEAST. BY MONDAY, HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL  
REBOUND TO NEAR NORMAL. THE EXCEPTION WILL BE TEXAS AS THE  
RAINFALL ACTIVITY EXPECTED TO OCCUR IN SOUTH AND SOUTH-CENTRAL  
TEXAS WILL KEEP HIGH TEMPERATURES IN THE UPPER 50S TO LOW  
60S--WHICH IS NEARLY 25 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL. AN UPPER LEVEL  
TROUGH WILL MOVE TOWARD THE FOUR CORNERS TODAY, USHERING IN  
MOISTURE THAT WILL LEAD TO SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS  
ACROSS THE SOUTHWEST AND CENTRAL GREAT BASIN. AS THE TROUGH PUSHES  
INLAND, THE RAINFALL WILL SHIFT EAST IN THE FOUR CORNERS REGION.  
OTHERWISE, DRY CONDITIONS AND ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES ARE  
EXPECTED FOR THE REST OF THE WESTERN U.S.  
 
REINHART  
 
GRAPHICS AVAILABLE AT  
WWW.WPC.NCEP.NOAA.GOV/BASICWX/BASICWX_NDFD.PHP  

 
 
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